Interesting write-up based on your observations, but the conclusions aren't particularly meaningful:
1. Bitcoin has a floor but practically no ceiling. But it's impossible to calculate where the floor is. True of literally any asset. The floor of any asset is 0 and the ceiling is hypothetically infinite.
2. The effect of the halving really depends on market sentiment at the time of the halving. It could be large or insignificant. The halving could be a significant event but it could also be an insignificant event. This is a truism.
As far as the halving goes, it seems more people than not (based on what I've observed on these boards) expect that the halving will result in a rise in price. If this is the case, you should expect the bulk of the effect of the halving to be priced in before the actual halving occurs, not after.
Three comments
1. My conclusions become more useful as we approach the halving. If the price still seems to be scraping along in the lower to mid 200s or lower in Spring 2016, then I'd be excited about the halving. If the price starts rising significantly before the halving ("pre halving hype"), I'd be more likely to sell into the halving or even before it. Here in Oct. 2015, it's too early to judge.
2. Most of the people who will be involved in the next big rally don't even know what a halving is. They don't own any bitcoin right now. If there's a truly large pre-halving hype, it will attract newcomers. If the rally smaller and more incestuous (which we can measure in some ways by looking at trade volume, forum statistics, reddit subscriptions, etc) then I agree that it would be priced in.
3. The elasticity is important because when supply falls and demand is inelastic, price rises in a non-linear fashion. So if the supply of oil drops 10% because of a war, we don't just see a 10% rise in the price of oil. We sometimes see a doubling in the price of oil because of a small change in the supply. So another (hidden) conclusion I have come to is that the halving could actually have a very large effect on the price if pre-halving sentiment is very bad and we are scraping along the bottom. But I'm doubtful that this will happen because the halving has been so hyped.
The most likely outcome, IMO, is that we begin with an incestuous pre-halving hype and start rising in anticipation of the halving.