I am saying that is it like a lottery since BTC reached 20 000 in december 2017. After that it managed to go under 4 000 in january 2019. Since then it went up and down like a pendulum and there is no way to predict which direction it will go. That's what I am talking about and not about early investors that like you mentioned achieved an ROI of as much as 32745.69%
It is a well-known fact that Bitcoin is extremely volatile, and that is exactly what you are talking about. Investing in Bitcoin or stocks is a lottery in a way, but tell me what in life is not a lottery?
I will tell you that you are mistaken when you say that price movements cannot be predicted, because every year after halving was extremely bullish - and we are just in one such year in which significant growth was expected. The fact that people did not want to listen at the end of 2017 and the beginning of 2018 is a completely different problem - just as they completely identified the beginning of 2021 with the beginning of 2018, so they mostly sold everything they had, and now they wonder why the correction did not happen.
People who can't understand the basics of the market and how Bitcoin works will always be the ones to lose - in other words, not everyone is capable of being successful in everything they do.