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Topic: Energy crisis? What energy crisis? Oil dips to 3 months low despite OPEC cuts! (Read 641 times)

stompix

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Blackjack.fun

Bumping this cause...we have a new record in the lol...energy crisis

So gas is now 68% cheaper than it was in the week before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
And gas is becoming cheaper in Europe than in Asia, with gas storage over 60% full and nice weather outside, LNG is being diverted from Europe to Japan and South Eats Asia as prices there ar 10% higher than in Europe!

As for the $300 per barrel of oil....all the cuts in the world and still OPEC hasn't been able to keep WTI over $80, again laughable since oil was at $85
the same day two years ago, before the Russian fiasco!

But yeah, energy crisis, Europe is going to freeze, all those things...
I wonder how long till the head of Rosneft and Gazprom start jumping from their windows

stompix

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Blackjack.fun

I wonder how the russian geniuses ae going to spin this

So right now gas traded in the EU is 25% lower than before the russian invasion of Ukraine
But it doesn't stop here, LNG is actually even cheaper:

https://aegis.acer.europa.eu/terminal/price_assessments

Quote

2024.01.31 26.636 26.911 26.761 -3.474

trading at a 3.4 euros discount, which makes LNG now 38% cheaper than Russian gas two years ago on the same date!
So:
- muscovy is selling less gas at cheaper prices, but trolls will say it makes more money
- Eu is not consuming as much gas because it's more expensive by by cheaper than it was , toll logic 2
- the gas prices goes down because...muscovy is selling more although it sell less
- LNG is cheaper than gas because...russian mumbo jumbo

Meanwhile, China is saying a big FU to the same russian gas:
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Massive-New-Russian-Natural-Gas-Pipeline-to-China-Faces-Delays.html

Quote

Russia and China are still at odds over the costs and delivery prices of a new major Russian natural gas pipeline to China, which could lead to delays in construction, according to the prime minister of Mongolia, which is planned to host a section of the infrastructure.

How to be a financial genius
- threaten the second largest economy with economic war so you end up selling less for cheap
- try to find a new market to replace the EU by having to cough out the money end up selling even cheaper than cheap
- end up being again a slave under the ~~Yuan~~ XI dynasty

But muscovy stonk, cause... reason

WillyAp

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Looking for guilt best look first into a mirror

Quote from: Argoo on February 01, 2024, 01:57:04 AM

And the fact that they offered very little resistance to the Taliban and quickly surrendered to them is not the fault of the United States.
https://m.gazeta.ru/army/2021/10/01/14042869.shtml

I don't think that a russian gazetta is something inpartial nowadays, where its relatively close to a direct encounter.
Leaving their material certainly was not a bright choice but the sitting president is the one who pushed for that.

I favour their own voice for story telling: https://www.factcheck.org/2021/08/timeline-of-u-s-withdrawal-from-afghanistan/

Quote

The fact is, President Joe Biden and his predecessor, Donald Trump, were both eager to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan and end what Biden referred to in his Aug. 16 speech as “America’s longest war.”

The Trump administration in February 2020 negotiated a withdrawal agreement with the Taliban that excluded the Afghan government, freed 5,000 imprisoned Taliban soldiers and set a date certain of May 1, 2021, for the final withdrawal.

further down:

Quote

Nov. 16, 2020 — Congressional Republicans, responding to news reports that the Trump administration will rapidly reduce forces in Afghanistan, warn of what Sen. Marco Rubio calls “a Saigon-type of situation” in Afghanistan. “A rapid withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan now would hurt our allies and delight the people who wish us harm,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell says.

serveria.com

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Quote from: Argoo on February 01, 2024, 01:57:04 AM

Quote from: WillyAp on January 23, 2024, 09:09:01 AM

Quote from: serveria.com on December 29, 2023, 05:38:52 PM

Disastrous campaign is US getting their ass kicked in Afghanistan.

Leaving a country is one thing, judging it as a defeat is another.
What has the US done to you?

US military forces withdrew from Afghanistan on August 31, 2021, ending NATO's Operations Freedom's Sentinel and Operation Resolute Support. The US and its allies invaded the country in 2001, following the September 11 attacks, resulting in the war becoming the longest armed conflict in US history. But the United States could not permanently keep its troops in Afghanistan. They helped create and train the Afghan armed forces and national police, and left them $85 billion worth of weapons. Among those left in Afghanistan were 200 planes and helicopters, as well as 600 thousand small arms. But the Americans could not fight for the Afghan national forces forever. And the fact that they offered very little resistance to the Taliban and quickly surrendered to them is not the fault of the United States.
https://m.gazeta.ru/army/2021/10/01/14042869.shtml

The United States and its allies have not yet transferred a single aircraft to Ukraine, several dozen tanks were transferred only recently, but the Ukrainians caused colossal military damage to the “second army of the world.”

Whoaa, colonel Bozo is back! Grin

My little lying friend, I'll share some knowledge with you. Imagine, there's a website called Wikipedia. How cool is that? And there you can easily find a complete list of military aid provided to Ukraine by US and allies, exposing your lies:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

The US actually bought all Soviet-era arms which were available anywhere in the world (even from countries like Morocco). They simply don't exist anymore, everything was sent to Ukraine and destroyed there by the Russians. Just Poland alone provided more than 330 tanks!

BTW, why are you still here, colonel? It's time for you to share your knowledge with the young troops fighting in the east! Donbas is waiting, colonel! Grin

Argoo

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Quote from: WillyAp on January 23, 2024, 09:09:01 AM

Quote from: serveria.com on December 29, 2023, 05:38:52 PM

Disastrous campaign is US getting their ass kicked in Afghanistan.

Leaving a country is one thing, judging it as a defeat is another.
What has the US done to you?

US military forces withdrew from Afghanistan on August 31, 2021, ending NATO's Operations Freedom's Sentinel and Operation Resolute Support. The US and its allies invaded the country in 2001, following the September 11 attacks, resulting in the war becoming the longest armed conflict in US history. But the United States could not permanently keep its troops in Afghanistan. They helped create and train the Afghan armed forces and national police, and left them $85 billion worth of weapons. Among those left in Afghanistan were 200 planes and helicopters, as well as 600 thousand small arms. But the Americans could not fight for the Afghan national forces forever. And the fact that they offered very little resistance to the Taliban and quickly surrendered to them is not the fault of the United States.
https://m.gazeta.ru/army/2021/10/01/14042869.shtml

The United States and its allies have not yet transferred a single aircraft to Ukraine, several dozen tanks were transferred only recently, but the Ukrainians caused colossal military damage to the “second army of the world.”

WillyAp

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Quote from: serveria.com on December 29, 2023, 05:38:52 PM

Disastrous campaign is US getting their ass kicked in Afghanistan.

Leaving a country is one thing, judging it as a defeat is another.
What has the US done to you?

How much business gets serveria from US citizens? Who are subjetcts to US Laws.

DrBeer

legendary

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Just pictures of gas and oil prices. With world major conflicts and targeted attempts to destabilize hydrocarbon markets. Either someone overestimated their strength in world economic terror, or the world turned out not to be as dependent on these "who's" as someone wanted

WillyAp

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Looking for guilt best look first into a mirror

People live in a dream world.
We have been in a solid recession for over a year.

stompix

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Blackjack.fun

Quote from: DaveF on January 17, 2024, 07:49:47 AM

And in the next few years it looks like LNG is going to get even cheaper then it is now. And the prices now are at 2021 levels.

I guess that even you can go and open a window and hear the screams from Kremlin, here is the usual noise almost on construction levels Cheesy

Imagine that gas right now is cheaper than January 2022, so before the war by 25%
https://www.ice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5714606&span=3

But there is a bit of crisis , somewhere else
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202401100401
Turkmenistan Stops Gas Exports To Iran Amid Winter Cold

Remember how Venezuela was guying gasoline? Now seems Iran is buying gas Grin

Karma is indeed like a slow cooker, you wait you wait but god when it's finally done!

DaveF

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And in the next few years it looks like LNG is going to get even cheaper then it is now. And the prices now are at 2021 levels.

https://www.ft.com/content/86a30758-229d-46d6-97cc-85ae62a6c6d7

Energy prices are down except in certain regions that have their own supply / delivery issues but that has nothing to do with the big picture.

Gas / oil / CNG / all of it is back at what can be considered 'normal' pricing.

-Dave

stompix

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Blackjack.fun

Quote from: DaveF on January 13, 2024, 09:04:56 AM

With US oil production and a few other non OPEC countries also at or close to all time highs it's interesting to watch people still predict doom and high prices.
Natural gas is the same, production is up and storage in most western countries is way up. And prices are down.
But, good news / boring things like that don't sell clicks on news sites.

Yeah, good news don't make the headlines as people love the negatives, they love to have someone to blame, they love to throw punches or tweets at somebody else and accuse them for everything that is bad in their life!
God forbid that the ones in charge make something good and useful, who are they going to accuse then for their shitty life?

And when it's about energy it's also the bot and propaganda brainwashed idiots, Europe not freezing to death? Impossible! American LNG gas being cheaper than russian gas in January 2022? Impossible! The entire world not caring about whatever shit Iran tries to stir in the middle east and oil still under 80 when the same propaganda was feeding us 300 per barrel prices?

They are going the almost the same way of Yamamoto, but that guy knew the industrial power of the west while he underestimated the desire of conflict, these guys clearly underestimated the economical power and their own measly economies.

OPEC cuts output, no problem, US, Brazil, Canada and Norway pump more, and there is a huge player coming on the market:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Argentinas-Oil-Revolution-Vaca-Muerta-Shale-Fuels-Economic-Hope.html

Quote

The Vaca Muerta’s rising unconventional hydrocarbon production is driving that notable leap in output. Government data for November 2023 shows shale oil output grew by a stunning 29% year over year to 344,749 barrels per day, comprising 52% of Argentina’s total production against 45.5% a year earlier. Indeed, a month prior, shale oil, for the first time ever, made up more than 50% of Argentina’s total petroleum output. For that month, shale gas production averaged 2.7 billion cubic feet per day, seeing it comprise almost 61% of total natural gas output against 54% a year earlier.

And Argentina is probably the last country to join OPEC or BRICS now!

DaveF

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Can't speak to the rest of the world since I am to lazy to look, but gas here in the US is more or less at it's lowest prices in 3 years and 'big oil' is still having record prices so if really came to it prices could go lower but almighty profits would take a hit.

With US oil production and a few other non OPEC countries also at or close to all time highs it's interesting to watch people still predict doom and high prices.

Natural gas is the same, production is up and storage in most western countries is way up. And prices are down.

But, good news / boring things like that don't sell clicks on news sites.

-Dave

stompix

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And we finally have cold in Europe so the energy prices...are....below the price price before the Russian invasion of Ukraine!
Who would have thought that? Well not brainwashed russian who have had the surprise of their lifetime since they are the ones out in the cold:

Russia Maps Show 25% of Moscow Without Power Amid Winter Freeze 'Emergency

Dutch TTF trades in the 30 euros per MW in the middle of winter, this comaperd to the entire 2010-2020 period average (including summers) of 22 euros per MW.
And oil is still well under $80 despite everything OPEC russia and Iran are tying, and now that the houthis have entered FAFO mode the last opportunity at raising the price is gone!

But it gets even better, guess who's out of gas:
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202401100401

Quote

Iran's already significant winter gas shortage has been exacerbated by Turkmenistan's decision to halt gas deliveries to Iran, including gas swaps with Azerbaijan this year. This has created a challenging situation for Iran, which is struggling with a severe gas shortage during the winter months. The breakdown of these gas-related agreements underscores the urgent need to address Iran's energy crisis.

Karma at work in the middle of winter!

DrBeer

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"The attempt to freeze out Europe in order to secure concessions on Ukraine has cost Gazprom dearly. Having lost its largest foreign market, which before the war accounted for 80 percent of exports and two-thirds of Gazprom's revenue, the Russian gas monopoly has rolled back nearly four decades.

At the end of 2023, Gazprom sold about 69 billion cubic meters of gas for export, the lowest volume since 1985, Reuters calculated. Compared to 2022 (100.9 billion cubic meters), which has already become the worst for the company in its history, the volume of gas pumped abroad fell by another third. And if compared to pre-war levels (185 billion cubic meters in 2021), Gazprom's exports have tripled."

At the same time, the global gas market shows a steady decline in prices. It turned out that Russia did not have a strong influence here, and the world market has learned to adapt and solve problems.

stompix

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Quote from: serveria.com on December 30, 2023, 10:59:01 AM

Again, compare it to the NATO inventory, how much is that? Does it reach 2%?

Quote from: serveria.com on December 30, 2023, 10:59:01 AM

Wait, you seriously believe Ukraine can win this war? Win over a nuclear superpower?

Chechnya did it. Afghanistan did it! So?
What was the last war that Russia won against a country with more than 4 mil?

Quote from: serveria.com on December 30, 2023, 10:59:01 AM

You know how many civilians died in Gaza? In a few months time more than ir Ukraine in 2 years! Any comment on that? Oh wait, sorry, that's different... Grin

Yup, even Putin said that it's different! Are you really comparing the two?
Be carefully and secure your windows, I heard those suicide gust of winds are really dangerous!

Quote from: serveria.com on December 29, 2023, 05:38:52 PM

Please re-read my post carefuly. It's oil and gas, not just oil.

It's you that needs to do the math again!
The us produces
-13 million barrels of oil, that's 1 billion worth of oil a day
-100 billion cubic feet of gas, which at European prices would be 800 million a day!

But the US exports $3.6 billions of goods a day, so even if they would export all their production and not consume one bit of it they would still be at 50%.
So how is the US managing to export more than they produce? Grin

serveria.com

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Quote from: stompix on December 29, 2023, 05:54:13 PM

Quote from: serveria.com on December 29, 2023, 05:38:52 PM

Next, Russia is not fighting Ukraine, it's fighting almost the entire world. APCs, tanks, artillery systems, anti-aircraft systems, missiles, fighter jets, drones etc etc etc all these armaments is being sent to Ukraine by their "partners".

You are either completely delusional or a liar! Here's the list of arms supplied to Ukraine by NATO (and not only) countries: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

You see just one country like Poland for example, sent at least 14 fighter jets, more than 330 tanks, ~350 APCs, 12 helicopters etc etc etc. Or it doesn't count? Grin

Btw, F16 fighter jets are reportedly already in Ukraine. Just one country (the Netherlands) has shipped 42! planes. Ooops...

Quote from: serveria.com on December 29, 2023, 05:38:52 PM

Now around 60% of all US exports is oil/gas. So, whose economy is a "big gas station" now? Grin

Texas? Oh wait, Texas is twice as big as Russia when it comes to economic size!

Also, the US exported 180 billions worth of goods in October, 60% would mean 108 billion, around 3.6 billion a day.
At the price of oil of 80 per barrel you're telling me the US is exporting 45 million barrels of oil equivalent per day?
Must be nice to export half of the world production!

Please re-read my post carefuly. It's oil and gas, not just oil.

stompix

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Quote from: serveria.com on December 29, 2023, 05:38:52 PM

How much of the NATO inventory has been sent to Ukraine?
The US has 5000 tanks, the others around 2000, Ukraine received 200.
The US has 600 Patriot batteries, it has sent 2 to Ukraine.
The US has how many fighter planes? How many have they...wait zero!

You're fighting a country 1/4 of your size armed with 2-5% of the NATO leftovers and losing badly!
Face reality, Russia was a paper tiger!

LE:
Actually, both the EU and US and NATO on the other side could have just go indeed warmonger as russian claim we are and armed Ukraine to the teeth from March 22, with indeed all the weapons we have , then this f* war would have been already done by now ending both Russia's dream of another USSR and the civilian drama that is happening right now with thousands of civilian casualties.
Russia is still pushing in Ukraine because they still bet the aid will cease, if the civilized worlds shows clearly it won't then they will simple claim another fake victory again and go back home.

Quote from: serveria.com on December 29, 2023, 05:38:52 PM

Now around 60% of all US exports is oil/gas. So, whose economy is a "big gas station" now? Grin

serveria.com

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Quote from: stompix on December 28, 2023, 08:12:43 AM

Who is stupid enough to go to war agaisnt the US?
After Russia's disastrously campaign in Ukraine every dictatorship in the world is looking at its mighty army and realizing it's the same , a paper tiger! Do you think that all those disappearance happening in Chinese army and all those "demotions" are not the result of the leaders finding out the truth?
There won't be any war!

I don't think Russia is performing poorly in Ukraine, not at all. Firstly, their initial attack plan had been leaked by some high-rank military: US intelligence knew exactly where and when the Russians were going to attack. And for such a swift unexpected attack plan not revealing it for as long as possible is crucial.

Next, Russia is not fighting Ukraine, it's fighting almost the entire world. APCs, tanks, artillery systems, anti-aircraft systems, missiles, fighter jets, drones etc etc etc all these armaments is being sent to Ukraine by their "partners". Soldiers are being trained by NATO countries, US intelligence reporting on every movement of Russian military in real time via satellites, Starlink internet for comm, fuel for military vehicles, money for Ukraine budget - all of this and much more is being supplied by EU/US. Disastrous campaign is US getting their ass kicked in Afghanistan.

Quote from: stompix

A great recession in a country that has been faking number for ages is not that much of a concern as a recession in the US.
Besides, the world is slowly getting rid of the dependence on China, money if coming out of there, production has been constantly moving back to the western world or other low cost countries, a recession in China is not that much feared since we we're the ones triggering it!
Remember how their ban on rare minerals was supposed to destroy the western economies? Again, crickets!

I wouldn't be so excited about if I were you. You know what this means for a common US/EU person who is barely making ends meet after covid and sanctions? Even more expensive goods, further inflation growth, further decline of quality of life etc.

Quote from: stompix

And the US has mathematically broken the 2019 record two weeks before the end of the year in both gas and oil
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Shatters-Oil-Production-Records-in-2023.html

Now around 60% of all US exports is oil/gas. So, whose economy is a "big gas station" now? Grin

justdimin

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Quote from: stompix on December 28, 2023, 08:12:43 AM

I feel like it could be the other way around? I mean if we knew that a war was coming, and if we knew that USA would be involved, I would straight up think that USA was about to go into war with someone, not the other way around. I do not think that anyone is stupid enough to go to war with USA, but I do believe that USA could go to war with anyone they want.

Mainly, the one that I have been thinking about is Iran, although they do have nuclear weapon, if you could get rid of them, then there is nothing you need to worry about, and it's been about fifty years since the regime change, so I think they have built a good spy network there to figure out where the nuclear warheads are, and if they get rid of them, a USA vs Iran war would be quite easy for the USA.

stompix

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Blackjack.fun

Quote from: Wind_FURY on December 23, 2023, 03:32:13 AM

Oof-topic, but that's an unexpected policy change from the United States. Tin-foil hats on, but OPEC might have taken their supply cuts because they probably had already known that the U.S. will start increased production of their own Crude Oil again.

That could also indicate that a war is coming?

🤔

Why?
Who is stupid enough to go to war agaisnt the US?
After Russia's disastrously campaign in Ukraine every dictatorship in the world is looking at its mighty army and realizing it's the same , a paper tiger! Do you think that all those disappearance happening in Chinese army and all those "demotions" are not the result of the leaders finding out the truth?
There won't be any war!

Israel just martyred another Iranian top commander and ...crickets!

Quote from: Wind_FURY on December 23, 2023, 03:32:13 AM

That's precisely my point. The Energy Crisis isn't what should be concerning. It's the fact that there's low demand from large oil consumers like China. Why? A Great Recession should probably be more concerning?