Topic: ETF accumluation and price impact for bull run - page 2. (Read 348 times)

It has. I think the main factor that drove the increase of Bitcoin's price before the SEC announcement of an approval came out was the anticipation that the applications will be approved. When the news came out, selling pressure built up but the demand side was strong enough to absorb the pressure. This probably explains why there wasn't a spike when the news came out. But there's always an effect because a huge demand was created with the approval.

The selling has already died down a lot. We will see the price slowly recovering from here. Add to it the halving and we'll see 6 digits soon.

I dont like on estimations but one thing that i do have in mind, i cant see a bubble on what happened on previous last 2 bull runs on which it would really be that lesser as of this upcoming one. Why?
I do have that gut feeling that institutional funds are the ones who would really be playing out on the market and would really be the reason on why this upcoming bull run wont really be shooting up into the moon
yet these greedy bastards would really be securing out their profits since they do already got the position. Sad to say but its the truth considering that they do have that kind of capability
when it comes to finances or fund that they could bring out and bought tons of coins or specifically Bitcoin.

Well, this is really just that my opinion which i might be wrong or right on which we do have our own approach when it comes to various things.
Thing here is that you should really know on how to ride with the waves despite of these fundamentals.

If spot ETFs were to be removed from the equation as if they did not exist, we would still be quite optimistic considering that we are in the halving year and would probably expect the next ATH to be at least x2 compared to the previous one, right? Therefore, we may be a bit modest with our speculations and Bitcoin could surprise us, as many times in the past.

I don't know if there is any meaningful data on how much BTC is available for trading if you only take into account all the relevant CEXs - but if I remember correctly it was written about numbers of some 2+ million BTC, although with price increases we should always consider that in each moment, hundreds of thousands or even millions of BTC from non-custodial wallets can flood the market.

In any case, the months ahead will be very interesting, and maybe only after the halving will real excitement await us in the sense that ETFs will explode only then.

I think the GBTC dump is mainly driven by the FTX estate dumping. Additional factors like profit realization, especially considering that Grayscale's ETF is only a conversion of an already existing product, and a comparably higher fee compared to its competitors add to it. But GBTC remains to be at the top.

The hype would gradually die down. Accumulation would slow down. And seeing a big potential for the price to double or even more in the next year or so, investors money could only afford so much. So I guess 500,000 all in all by the end of 2025 is realistic. But for me that includes GBTC already.

Yeah I was trying to be conservative based on the fact that I assume buying these first few weeks will be much higher than where it will settle due to initial excitement of ETFs being available and probably a lot of people have been waiting a long time to get into Bitcoin ETFs and they are going to mostly buying these first few weeks.

But you're right it could certainly be more. Yesterday all the ETFs just had a nice net positive inflow (has mostly been net negative due to the massive Grayscale selling) of over $250 million, so ETFs net buying was probably close to 6000 bitcoin just yesterday. Excluding Grayscale it was more like $450 million of buying yesterday, or over 10,000 bitcoin. If the buying stays up at several hundred million dollars on a daily basis for the next month or two while prices are still low, these ETFs will quickly accumulate several hundred thousand bitcoin and easily trounce my estimates above.

10k bitcoin a day, 5 days a week, 4 weeks a month, would mean 200k bitcoin in a single month.
My numbers were based on thinking the buying would drop below $100 million daily this week or next week as initial excitement fades and settle under $50m daily. And also I didn't realize the buying on the non-Grayscale exchanges was still several hundreds of millions until I just saw the data. Blackrock and Fidelity have each been typically buying $100m to $200m daily, while the other ETFs together buy a few tens of millions of dollars daily, and so far it isn't slowing down.

So while my estimate was meant to be conservative, yeah its definitely possibly I greatly low-balled the demand for these ETFs in the next two years. Could potentially see the non-Grayscale ETFs owning over a million bitcoin by the time this cycle peaks late next year. In which case >$150k peak price seems likely to me, as an extra half a million bitcoin being off the market is a very significant amount of the liquid bitcoin that is out there being traded around.

If you say that they already accumulated about 130 000 BTC today, and that in less than 20 days from the approval of the ETF, it would be logical to assume that the total number of BTC by the end of this year will probably be much higher than what you are speculating about. Of course, the current figures can be attributed to the initial excitement, so maybe it would be good to wait 1-2 months and only then start to draw some conclusions.

If you are talking about the number of 500 000 BTC by the end of the cycle, then it is not too much for a period of 2 years - especially if we take into account that Microstrategy "removed" from the market just a little less than 200 000 BTC, although admittedly in a long period. I would perhaps dare to say that the funds could buy even more than 500 000 BTC in the mentioned period, but only for the reason that we are in the halving year, which should mark the beginning of a new big bull run.

As for the new ATH, I think it would be realistic to expect it to be x2 compared to the previous one of $69k - which means at least some $140k and up to $200k if the ETFs turned out to be big BTC accumulators in that period.

Fun question: how much bitcoin do you think the ETFs will accumulate by the bull run peak in 2025, and what price impact do you think that'll have on the market?

Only count the 10 ETFs excluding Grayscale since Grayscale already had a ton and then dumped a bunch and it just makes things messy.


As of end of last week (two and a half weeks of the ETF operating) the non-grayscale ETFs have accumulated just over 130,000 bitcoin.




I'd expect the amount of money coming into ETFs to naturally slow after the excitement of the launch is over, and as the price rises the same amount of money will buy fewer bitcoin. So I think ETFs could accumulate another 300k to 350k bitcoin by end of the market cycle, presumably sometime late next year, putting their total at about 500k bitcoin by that point. I think roughly another 100k first half of this year, roughly 100k second half of this year, and then another roughly 100k next year until market top since price will be much higher so it'll take a lot more money to get bitcoin.

Without ETFs I had been expecting this cycle's peak price to be $120k to $140k, but with now with ETFs I could see it potentially being more like $140k to $160k.


What do you all think? Your estimates cycle top price and for amount of btc held in ETFs by that point.