Ethereum Network Hashrate is currently: 955 TH/s
Etherecum Classic Network Hashrate is currently: 27 TH/s
Currently with 30MH/s you make $1 per GPU per day with ETC. Prior to any power costs.
If all the 955 TH/s switches to ETC, then the hashrate will become ~ 982 TH/s. Which means the difficulty will go up 36x. So basically the profits go down 36 times.
So $1 per day becomes $0.027 per day before any power costs.
Now lets assume that only half the hashrate are GPUs since the ETH ASICs cannot mine ETC. So 955/2=477TH/s. So ETC Network hashrate will become 504TH/s.
So basically instead of $0.027 per day it will be $0.053 per day. You basically need $0.015 kwh power to make nothing. Nobody except maybe in Iraq got 1 cent power.
You're right, your numbers are correct and I can't disagree with facts
BUT, let's imagine a better scenario?
There's a probability of more than 50% of hashrate being from Asics
You're saying ALL hashrate goes to ETC, if this happens, all another coins will continue profitable, and in a realistic scenario the power will be divided to different coins
ETC price right now is 48 USD, and ATH is 176 USD, there's chance to ETC reach this price again
Every little thing can increase profitability, and I say again, hard to know, even the oldest miners can't know exactly
95% of the ethereum network is owned by the miners.
Moving to POS is a smart move, but not a profitable move.
ETH can be dumped after merge, we will only know about the influence of miners at price after some time
And there's the unlock too
Miners are part of the ETH environment, they sell coins, but they do more than that to ETH