With this ENORMOUS HASHRATE we can now say without a single doubt:
1º Once ETH goes PoS, there will be , at least, 450TH of hashing power searching for coins to mine, which will DESTROY any viable coin till that point. So the end of ETH is the END of mining. This is A FACT. Unless there is a coin that increases it's prices by x10 at least so that "difficulty vs profit" gives at least some money back. Or that appears a new ETH, which , BTW has not appeared in the last 5 years.
2º With this enormous hashrate, ETH devs are going to follow the EIP-1559 and will be implemented ASAP. Why? Because this ridiculous amount of hashrate leeds to MORE INFLATION, more coins, and more profit for miners. And only 1 or 2 DEVs supports mining to continue as it is. And ETH devs don't want this profit to this extent. So, miners are going to get destroyed very soon. Fees will be burnt, and DEVS are going to implement it. This is a FACT for me.
3º As this madness continues, DEVS are going to rush the implementation of PoS, so the end of mining, and i'm 100% sure that they are going to do it before 2022. Some were saying that by end of 2022 or even 2023. With the current situation of madness, and it's going to continue because PEOPLE ARE GREEDY AF, DEVS will have no option but to rush to implement PoS.
4º ASICS are taking ETH. I feel like there are more and more getting into the hashrate, and this is a disaster to all the comunity, because ASICS are the most profitable machines outthere, by far. And only very few people are getting them, and they are destroying the rest. My guess here? DEVS are not going to implement ANY kind a anti-ASICS code on the net, and so, this very rich-greedy guys are going to continue flooding the pool with very powerfull high-efficient machines that will force DEVS to end ETH mining FASTER.
It doesnt matter which vision you have on ETH. This are FACTS, and as time goes by, more and more people are entering this market, and you, ALL OF US, are going to get less and less and less. It's a F. disaster. This is pure greed and madness.
Interesting points but not quite FACTS as you put it.
1/ Yes, a good chunk will sell-up and not return (hopefully) and it will leave the rest.. I've been mining since 2 years before ETH came along and in '13-'15 there was PLENTY of coins to choose from that were all marginally profitable at the time.
2/ Possibly, More than 51% of the hashrate (pools) have opposed the EIP.. So it could well be interesting if they try to implement it. See
https://stopeip1559.org/3/ POS has been 'coming' since 3 months after ETH's birth in '15.. 6 years later.. Yep, it's still 'coming'.. Albeit closer.. but nonetheless still 'coming' .. My guess is minimum 2 years, likely 3-3.5 years away.
4/ I absolutely agree.. A couple days ago Vitalik said in an interview regarding POW he was looking at
possibly inflating DAG size to 7.5GB (static) for rest of POW period.. This would wipe off ALL current ASICS and 6GB GPU's for that matter.. How serious he was I don't know I suppose we'll hear more in the coming weeks.
1º there are NO COINS that can actually cope with 400TH of hashrate, and the ones the remain profitable right now will just get destroyed. I feel like discussing about this makes no sense because this is a fact. Many people will continue mining once ETH goes PoS. It will happen the same as when 4GB DAG file was reached and it was said, even by many big youtubers, that there would be a drop in hashrate of about 40%. Reality is that it was not even a 5% at most. Which means that people actually invested on more mining. This is just another way of living, and big investors and miners will continue doing it.
It's evident that big farms will switch to other algos and remember, most hashing power is on mining Farms.
2º EIP is going to be implemented because , as you can imagen, ETH devs don't want hashrate to go to 500 or even 600TH of hashing power. Also remember that with big ASICS entering the market, a big big farm combined with others could potentially do a 51% attack. They know the risks of ASICS, and the best "easy" way of discouraging people from mining is actually implementing this EIP. I'm 100% it's going to happen, and it will happen before 6months.
3º PoS is already announced. You cannot compare. The amount of projects linked to ETH, the price, the hashrate, the implementation of ETH 2.0 is running as intended, and so you cannot say this is not going to happen soon because in the past (without this level of development) they couldn't complete their "timetable". PoS is happening, and we can bet if you want. My bet is end of 2021 , begining of 2022, at most. They are DETERMINED to do it on time, and they are going to rush it.
4º Vitalik is a well known ANTI-mining dev. His goal of ETH coins on the market was 100M. there are, at least, 114M right now, and the amount of coins generated everyday is at ATH. If there is a way to get rid of 20%/30% or even 40% of the mining hashrate, they will do it, because their main issue right now is INFLATION, directly related to mining. The more coins generated, the less value they will have. So they want to stop it ASAP. I feel like they are going to do it. For me, it would be nice if they "artificially inflate" the DAG to 6GB since all my cards are 8GB, so that would not affect me at all.
But, lets be clear. There are not so many cards mining ETH with 6GB cards. RTX 2060 were never meant to do that. IN fact, you could do that 30ish MH with just an RX 570 8GB. I don't think there are so many RTX 2060/1060/1660/super/ti and the like. If they were to inflate the DAG , they would do it until 8GB, although i can agree that they would have to study first which cards are mining because they could risk destroying a big part of the hashrate making it possible for big ASICS farms to do a 51% attack.
Anyway, the end is very near, and madness is just disgusting. here in Spain, i've been told that all the supply of RTX 3060ti that the biggest retailer was receiving next March has been sold to a guy with a mining farm. more than 1000 cards at a price of 600€ each. And he also asked for all the RTX 3070/3080, but this operation was denied by the company. Supply of those cards is bound to happen in mid-end of March.