Topic: +ev bets expected roi 3-5%(Player Props) 1-2% (Game Lines and O/U) (Read 1765 times)

Freeman > Franco TB -120

Cespedes > Harper TB +105

Betts > Davis TB -110

I think -129 will give u a return do it for .25 a unit ( whatever your  standard unit is)

I have bets at -121 -125 -126 and -128

-129 on cloudbet

Play of the day cardinals -125 please dont bet what u cant afford to lose I project this bet to be between 3.5 and 4.2% roi

found -121 betonline but Im sure I just moved it

I have 3 correlated parlays most books wont let you do these but find out if yours does.

CLE ML + U 8.5  1unit to win 1.82 units

PIT ML + U 8  1 unit to wein 1.86

LAD ML + U 7.5 1 unit to win 2.02 units

I will go on a limb and say that in those cases both parties do not understand variance.

At the end of the day my results don't matter to me, because I have a proper bankroll. I have years of betting specifically props  and have had many sportsbet accounts banned or reduced to micro limits for beating books.


"There's no talent here, this is hard work. This is an obsession. Talent does not exist, we are all equal as human beings. You could be anyone if you put in the time. You will reach the top, and that [is] that. I am not talented, I am obsessed."

Conor Mcgregor

This you are telling because you have won, if not you would have turned out and told today not good games. I have seen lot of newcomers in prediction give for some days and after continuous loss they just run away.

online poker across multiple sites

with only one tip we could only pick the right one 

where is your poker table?

Only 4 games today Had 1 bet that I forgot to post here and sadly its about to win, might do player props later if my poker games are not great.

no one should blame you! and as I said before it does not make sense to pick 1-2 bets out of ~20 tips

BR management is a must and I agree with you but does it make sense to flat bet your tips?

thanks

Well I don't want to be a dick but #1 Dont gamble with what you cant afford to lose, #2 run a 1% edge in a variance calculator and tell me what  you find, #3  even if you had a shit ton of confidence you should expect to lose both bets a fair % of the time. Was not the best day yesterday for me especially because Dozier hit that home run at his last at bet which rly hurt me because that was my biggest bet of the day, but it happens. Variance is a bitch and after millions upon millions of hands of online poker I still find it hard to understand sometimes. FYI 3 of those big + moneylines lost bloew the lead at the end of the games reverse that swing and the day isnt that bad those +140 + bets are big swings happens, this is why as a bettor you need proper bankroll management.

Ya it is true and even i use to first check their 2 or 3 predictions after that i use to follow them but what happened i dont know I just followed it as and i thought this two bet are safe one. then also his 5 out of 7 bets are lost so it would have been same.

yeah i agree you can hardly be mad at the op if you only play one of the bets. You need to play them all evenly if your gonna follow
someone otherwise he could win them all but 1 and your on that loser which has happened to me in the past also

sorry that you lost 50% of your br

I lost on SEA cause this was the only one with good odds I could get with my bookies

imo it does not make sense to just pick 1-2 bets out of that many posted by op. I even would suggest to op to tell us if we should flat bet all his tips or how to use our br for those many bets he was posting.

thanks

Damn badluck i lost my 0.021btc on two matches, baltimore over 9.5 and Seattle, It is really hard to earn, i was having confidence on your bet and i had my 50% of my bankroll on your bet and now i lost it.

Street Cred
https://postimg.org/image/qgf0wm16d/

Bad start today, sucks that Tbr and CWS blew leads late when they both + numbers, sea game was just a disaster.



NYM -116   cancelled
PIT +152     lose
CWS +120   Lose
TBR +156    lose
SEA -114     lose
Balt over 9.5  lose
LAA -135     ( LAA is Angels fyi) win

CLE F.Lindor total bases -115* vs MIN B.Dozier total bases  (Fixed Price)  lose
BOS M.Betts total bases -120* vs TAM B.Miller total bases  lose
E.Encarnacion total bases +115* vs BAL M.Trumbo total bases  (Fixed Price) lose
TOR J.Donaldson total bases +110* vs BAL M.Machado total bases   win
HOU C.Correa total bases -120* vs OAK K.Davis total bases  Win
OAK/HOU score 1st inn yes -125* vs OAK/HOU no score 1st inn lose
COL DJ.LeMahieu a hit* -245 Win
Los Angeles Dodgers Under 5½ +115 Win  ( Was biggest play of the day for me as you can see in screne shot in the next post, Dodgers scored 0 runs ^^)
CUB A.Rizzo total bases -125* vs PIT A.McCutchen total bases cancelled
M.Carpenter total bases -115* vs MIL J.Villar total bases   lose
 C.Santana total bases -120* vs MIN J.Mauer total bases  win
K.Bryant total bases -125* vs PIT S.Marte total bases   win
 M.Saunders hits+runs+RBI -120* vs BAL J.Schoop hits+runs+RBI lose
M.Trout hits+runs+RBI over 2½ -115* vs LAA M.Trout hits+runs+RBI under 2½ (canceled Trout out of line up)
Freeman > Myers TB -125 chop
 Cincinnati Reds H+R+E/Los Angeles Angels H+R+E Under 27½ -105*  (Fixed Price)  win
 LOS C.Seager total bases GM2 -115* vs COL N.Arenado total bases GM2  (Fixed Price)  cancelled
    WAS J.Werth hits+runs+RBI over 2 -105* vs WAS J.Werth hits+runs+RBI under 2  (Fixed Price)  win
   PHI C.Hernandez a hit -245* vs PHI C.Hernandez no hits  (Fixed Price)  lose
 BAL C.Davis total bases -120* vs TOR T.Tulowitzki total bases  (Fixed Price)    cancelled
 SDG Y.Solarte hits+runs+RBI over 2 +105* vs SDG Y.Solarte hits+runs+RBI under 2  (Fixed Price)   lose
 ATL F.Freeman hits+runs+RBI over 2½ +115* vs ATL F.Freeman hits+runs+RBI under 2½  (Fixed Price) lose
 CLE F.Lindor hits+runs+RBI over 2½ +115* vs CLE F.Lindor hits+runs+RBI under 2½  (Fixed Price)  win

  Many bets on the previous page today this is the last set gl us.

M.Carpenter total bases -115* vs MIL J.Villar total bases

 C.Santana total bases -120* vs MIN J.Mauer total bases

K.Bryant total bases -125* vs PIT S.Marte total bases

 M.Saunders hits+runs+RBI -120* vs BAL J.Schoop hits+runs+RBI

M.Trout hits+runs+RBI over 2½ -115* vs LAA M.Trout hits+runs+RBI under 2½