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Topic: Everyone will cash out at $1000 - page 3. (Read 9433 times)

full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
August 09, 2013, 01:38:37 AM
#76
Fundamentally, Bitcoin markets still have a problem. And that problem is that a few hold so many coins.  It doesn't matter what small fish do, when whales start selling, everyone will follow because the small fish can not create enough buying pressure to stop it.  We've seen that with every crash.  Plus many small fish are weak hands and will follow whatever everyone else is doing anyway.

Bottom line, if whales sell at $1000, everyone else will try to sell too.  And many wont get out in time, just like the $260 crash.  If whales start big buying, so will everyone else.  All the talk about new people and media attention, blah, blah, blah...is pointless.  If they are not new whales entering the market, it won't do anything to change the trend created by the whales.  
Really we should be thankful any time that whales are selling out, because it means they are distributing their "hoard" of Bitcoins to many other people.

+1
Unless they buy back even more Bitcoins at a lower price.
full member
Activity: 140
Merit: 100
"Don't worry. My career died after Batman, too."
August 09, 2013, 01:25:21 AM
#75
Fundamentally, Bitcoin markets still have a problem. And that problem is that a few hold so many coins.  It doesn't matter what small fish do, when whales start selling, everyone will follow because the small fish can not create enough buying pressure to stop it.  We've seen that with every crash.  Plus many small fish are weak hands and will follow whatever everyone else is doing anyway.

Bottom line, if whales sell at $1000, everyone else will try to sell too.  And many wont get out in time, just like the $260 crash.  If whales start big buying, so will everyone else.  All the talk about new people and media attention, blah, blah, blah...is pointless.  If they are not new whales entering the market, it won't do anything to change the trend created by the whales.  
Really we should be thankful any time that whales are selling out, because it means they are distributing their "hoard" of Bitcoins to many other people.

+1
legendary
Activity: 2632
Merit: 1023
August 09, 2013, 01:17:50 AM
#74
People should stop dreaming about 10,000 $ / BTC anytime soon. 1,000 $ is possible in 2014 during a bubble spike,
but after that the spikes will grow slower, something like 2,000 in 2015, 3,000 in 2016, and 4,000 in 2017.


why would the spikes grow slower?
growth should be exponential, no?

which would mean the bubble will get closer and closer together,  pretty soon a bubble pop will be immediately followed by another bubble! Grin
  


I agree with this, if anything the btc environment is speeding up, on slowing down, exponentially
legendary
Activity: 1135
Merit: 1166
August 09, 2013, 01:09:20 AM
#73
When I can top up  a pre-paid VISA/Mastercard with Bitcoin very quickly and easily Bitcoins will become more valuable.

I agree with you that this would surely boost Bitcoin's usefulness a lot, but personally I wouldn't use such a service.  I don't use credit cards (or ATM cards which are more common in Austria) myself and value my privacy paying with cash.  After all, it's none of VISA's (or my bank's) business to know when, where and what I buy for my living, and it's also none of my grocery store's business to know what else I bought when with them by matching my payments together automatically.

I will start using Bitcoins for those purchases when I can pay with a mobile wallet app directly to an address, or when off-chain providers exist that allow me to pay with anonymous accounts where I can easily create new ones from time to time to break the chain of all my transactions.
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1015
August 08, 2013, 09:36:22 PM
#72
When I can top up  a pre-paid VISA/Mastercard with Bitcoin very quickly and easily Bitcoins will become more valuable.

The process would be go online and one time buy for $10 a pre-paid card, then go to account online to convert BTC into the card balance needed. This would mean no need to go exchanges and whenever I need real world money I can create it from my Bitcoins. (No service like this exists in Australia)

If such a service exists so people know they can spend Bitcoins day to day just by doing 1 online action (and also allow them to withdraw money from a ATM with the card) Bitcoin will easily be able to merit prices beyond $1,000. Note that this does not require any merchants to know or care about Bitcoin, just allowing us to move money into day to day spending at whenever we want will increase the value tremendously.

Imagine telling a friend about bitcoins and how they can be used all over the internet without ever having to worry about your details being stolen, and then tell them that you can top up your card whenever you want to buy a coffee or pay rent. Very valuable.

At this point the only reason to cash out would be to day trade the bubbles and such, but no longer any real reason to actually cash to fiat, this also increases Bitcoins value and stabilizes it because this rush to cash into fiat is removed.

Now the future a lot of you are talking about, Bitpay similar services acting as point of sale and even bitcoin payment systems using the blockchain in many stores, this future will happen perhaps, but it's further away and means most people know what Bitcoin is. Once we get to this point where Bitcoin is as common as the words paypal, bank and VISA/MasterCard we will be so far north of $10,000 that $1,000 will be remembered as the cheap old days.

What I am trying to say is even something like easily topped up VISA cards will allow Bitcoin to sustain $1,000+ prices very easily. Its also in VISA's best interest to do so, they can make a small fee on each top up and if they start buying Bitcoin as a investment now the payoff will cement them as a finance leader for decades to come. And in the process destroy MasterCard. (Or vice versa, whichever one does it first wins it all)

When 1/5 stores actually accepts some kind of Bitcoin payment, those days are the $10,000 days.
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1002
Bitcoin is new, makes sense to hodl.
August 08, 2013, 08:39:54 PM
#71
If you live down by the cave, yes. But big cities like nyc, sf, portland, multiply the current number merchants by 10, living by btc should be quite convenient. I don't see walmart and mcdonald take btc at 1000 though, but at 10 grands, they might.
member
Activity: 112
Merit: 10
August 08, 2013, 06:11:50 PM
#70
They don't need to cash out, but instead use coins to purchase whatever. At $1000 means shit tons of merchants.
1000$ is only 10 times more than now.
And there is nowhere in my city where you can spend bitcoins.
So let's assume that at 1000$ there will be 10 businesses that accept bitcoins in my city...

I'd not call that "shit tons".


I have to agree here, as much as I like Bitcoin. I would still prefer to have my Bitcoin changed into cash. It's easier for day to day use.
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1002
Bitcoin is new, makes sense to hodl.
August 08, 2013, 05:45:11 PM
#69
They don't need to cash out, but instead use coins to purchase whatever. At $1000 means shit tons of merchants.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
August 08, 2013, 05:37:11 PM
#68
And if you buy a car for 1,000 $, that's probably going to be a death trap, so don't.

I paid $1000 for a 1992 Mitsubishi Magna with 300,000 Km on the clock 2 years ago.

The ECU shorted out after a further 5000 Km but got a second hand one for $150.
I have driven another 20,000Km without issue.

Cars... Absolute money pits.  Stay cheap folks....

On topic:

My kids have a target of $1000 per BTC and they want to sell half their stash at the price.
legendary
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1094
August 08, 2013, 05:11:57 PM
#67
why would the spikes grow slower?
growth should be exponential, no?

which would mean the bubble will get closer and closer together,  pretty soon a bubble pop will be immediately followed by another bubble! Grin
  

They will grow slower because of limited resources, in our case speculators' money. IMO there won't be enough money to get above 4,000 $ in 2017.
member
Activity: 112
Merit: 10
August 08, 2013, 04:57:49 PM
#66
I guess that's what the fun of Bitcoin is, you never truly know what price they will be at.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
August 08, 2013, 04:54:55 PM
#65
People should stop dreaming about 10,000 $ / BTC anytime soon. 1,000 $ is possible in 2014 during a bubble spike,
but after that the spikes will grow slower, something like 2,000 in 2015, 3,000 in 2016, and 4,000 in 2017.


why would the spikes grow slower?
growth should be exponential, no?

which would mean the bubble will get closer and closer together,  pretty soon a bubble pop will be immediately followed by another bubble! Grin
  
legendary
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1094
August 08, 2013, 04:52:10 PM
#64
People should stop dreaming about 10,000 $ / BTC anytime soon. 1,000 $ is possible in 2014 during a bubble spike,
but after that the spikes will grow slower, something like 2,000 in 2015, 3,000 in 2016, and 4,000 in 2017.

And if you buy a car for 1,000 $, that's probably going to be a death trap, so don't.
member
Activity: 112
Merit: 10
August 08, 2013, 04:47:27 PM
#63
Well, I can't say I wouldn't sell at 1,000 USD. I mean 100 Bitcoin don't sound like much now. maybe 10,000 USD right now. But 100,000 USD is a nice amount. I think people will panic sell in hopes of not missing out a nice pay day. But I think we have quite a way to go until we can see those types of numbers.

No more than 2 years.


That would be awesome 1 Bitcoin will be able to buy you a nice average car, can't wait for those days.

I'm not sure you can buy nice average car for $1000

Oops, my mistake. I was thinking about if Bitcoin reached 10,000 USD. Hey, I guess you can buy a car for 1,000 USD.  Tongue
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
August 08, 2013, 04:45:27 PM
#62
Well, I can't say I wouldn't sell at 1,000 USD. I mean 100 Bitcoin don't sound like much now. maybe 10,000 USD right now. But 100,000 USD is a nice amount. I think people will panic sell in hopes of not missing out a nice pay day. But I think we have quite a way to go until we can see those types of numbers.

No more than 2 years.


That would be awesome 1 Bitcoin will be able to buy you a nice average car, can't wait for those days.

I'm not sure you can buy nice average car for $1000
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
Annuit cœptis humanae libertas
August 08, 2013, 04:35:17 PM
#61
Well, I can't say I wouldn't sell at 1,000 USD. I mean 100 Bitcoin don't sound like much now. maybe 10,000 USD right now. But 100,000 USD is a nice amount. I think people will panic sell in hopes of not missing out a nice pay day. But I think we have quite a way to go until we can see those types of numbers.

No more than 2 years.

Would be my educated guess, too. Bitcoin has grown about four orders of magnitude in the past three years or so, which of course isn't to say it will continue the exact same growth trend. But within the next few years I foresee the exchange rate per BTC as being likely upward of $10k at least, even in 2008-adjusted dollars, or zero, but not much in between. We shall see. Smiley

The transactions-per-block scalability problem is still a biggie. The very smart devs must have spent a whole lot of time figuring out the best method of dealing with it though. Have faith in them; watch a Mike Hearn video or three to feel good about the prospects of the Bitcoin project!
full member
Activity: 129
Merit: 100
August 08, 2013, 04:34:22 PM
#60
A million per coin sounds like a more likely ceiling than a thousand. I actually think it will slowly rise to a few million once it hits a million (in 2018 I predict).

2028 is more likely IMO. And no! Other wannabe currencies will likely worth less than they are now.


Only if hashrate grows about +10% per retarget next 15 years. How likely is that?
Otherwise it will be cheaper to mine it with today units

1. I only said above that 1m$ in 2028 is more likely than in 2018. (even my optimism has some boundaries)
2. The hashrate is growing about 1.5% a day in 2013 and overall since 2009 the daily/bi-weekly hashrate growth is of similar order of magnitude. Tehrefore 10%+ per 14 days over prolonged periods of time does not sound completely unrealistic.
3. Given enough incentive free market will grow bitcoin mining capacity as long as there is any profit in it. Therefore, your argument is mostly invalid. It is not hashrate drives prices, it is mostly other way around (but it is complicated).

Thank you for explaining. I need to be more optimistic but my gut feeling telling me 1m$ can newer happen (unless the inflation will be so high it is normal monthly wage).
member
Activity: 112
Merit: 10
August 08, 2013, 04:31:52 PM
#59
Well, I can't say I wouldn't sell at 1,000 USD. I mean 100 Bitcoin don't sound like much now. maybe 10,000 USD right now. But 100,000 USD is a nice amount. I think people will panic sell in hopes of not missing out a nice pay day. But I think we have quite a way to go until we can see those types of numbers.

No more than 2 years.


That would be awesome 1 Bitcoin will be able to buy you a nice average car, can't wait for those days.
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
August 08, 2013, 04:30:30 PM
#58
Well, I can't say I wouldn't sell at 1,000 USD. I mean 100 Bitcoin don't sound like much now. maybe 10,000 USD right now. But 100,000 USD is a nice amount. I think people will panic sell in hopes of not missing out a nice pay day. But I think we have quite a way to go until we can see those types of numbers.

No more than 2 years.
member
Activity: 112
Merit: 10
August 08, 2013, 04:22:22 PM
#57
Well, I can't say I wouldn't sell at 1,000 USD. I mean 100 Bitcoin don't sound like much now. maybe 10,000 USD right now. But 100,000 USD is a nice amount. I think people will panic sell in hopes of not missing out a nice pay day. But I think we have quite a way to go until we can see those types of numbers.
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