Everything is cyclical and repetitive. Bitcoin is no exception - page 2.

Ucy

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Quote from: Poorwithbtc.eth on March 28, 2023, 02:57:11 AM

Investing or any industry, if you ignore the historical factor, it means you leave out the data about the market. The market principle is always iterative because human psychology is also iterative, so if you take away the lessons that the market has taught you in the past, you cannot predict the future market well 👌

=> If you study a field thoroughly from basic to advanced things like why it appeared, by whom and how, .... Then there will come a time when you will be able to predict the future. its. And that is also the reason why great people have the ability to predict the future like Tesla, Leonardo da Vinci, ... Why don't we apply that in investing in general and investing in virtual currencies in particular?

Ofcourse, but you don't need to be great to give a fair prediction of repetitive events like the sun reaching the middle of the sky around 12pm. Even children can guess that right. That doesn't make people who predict repetitive things great or with special abilities to predict the future. Beside, no one can accurately predict the future unless it's given from above.
In regards to the price of Bitcoin, its price movement is no longer influenced by events and other things of the World. It's reconfigured to be partly influenced by things that's according to its ideals. So don't expect the price movements to be repetitive unless maybe you really understand the new things that currently influence it.

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Quote from: Poorwithbtc.eth on March 28, 2023, 02:57:11 AM

Why don't we apply that in investing in general and investing in virtual currencies in particular?

You can't assume the way we all reason to be the same, moreover this is digital currency you can't compare it to other asset or currencies, it's something that needs a proper orientation and preparation before starting, if you're not interested in taking a risk then it's better you don't start at all, some investors take their time to study and observe closely before taking a step, though it may not be clear to us what they have done unaware to us, those that fails to go through this same process were the ones that normally loose their asset due to lack of knowledge, people investigate but not everyone we know or that comes to us to tell us what they have done in salient.

kryptqnick

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I think that there can be people who are somehow pretty good at predicting where the market is moving, when to buy and to sell, but even these people are sometimes seriously wrong, and it also doesn't seem to be a simple skill you can just obtain and use. While there are some repetitions and one can be fairly confident that there will be ups and downs, for example, or that there is a Bitcoin bull market every 3-5 years or so, it's much harder to know the moment when the bottom is reached or when the price is about to start moving significantly. So it's not just the cycles and learning from history, it's also perhaps something like a talent. Kind of like some can become great artists and singers, but most can't. I know I'm alright with long-term, relatively safe investments, but I'm not good at trading. Thus, I simply stopped engaging in it once I realized that I'm not good at it, not sure I'll ever become good at it, and not willing to invest my time and effort to try and find out.

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Quote from: Poorwithbtc.eth on March 28, 2023, 02:57:11 AM

Why don't we apply that in investing in general and investing in virtual currencies in particular?

To compare bitcoin to the organic and structured nature of life survival in the economic world then we may not be doing a very good service and understanding of bitcoin in the space that it is trying to occupy. For the doubts I can't say if Satoshi did envisage the institutional challenges that bitcoin is undergoing from different government and their agencies. So investment in virtual currency like bitcoin for now isn't without a little kind of skeptism unlike it contemporary.

tbct_mt2

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Quote from: Zaguru12 on March 28, 2023, 09:49:31 AM

No matter how we study the past or the pattern of bitcoin movement it will definitely be hard to get an accurate predictions but just a mere guess that could coincide.

You can not predict price correctly every time you make your prediction but you can see the market psychological cycle repeats itself many times. That psychological cycle is similar for all financial markets and cryptocurrency market is not exception.

If you zoom out and have long vision, you will be able to use this cycle easily and get profit from it. You don't have to mind about short term and get frustrated with bad news in bear market.

Quote

The earliest predictions has always been there’s always a huge pump when an halving is close by or after each Halving. But also bitcoin price is also been hit by economic factors from government policies, recession and also aggravated FUDs during either collapse of commercial banks or top exchanges. This or many could affect the price of bitcoin either negatively or positively, so it definitely hard to get an almost near certainty in its predictions.

Halving effect is great and see past cycles with past halvings. Societies, policies, economy are different among past three halvings but do you see their similarities with price growth on the chart?

I know in short term, bad news and fud are really frustrating and impact your emotion and life quality a lot if you are betting with leverage and have to face with forced liquidations. Else if you just hold your bitcoins, your life would be more easily and less stressful.

Zaguru12

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No matter how we study the past or the pattern of bitcoin movement it will definitely be hard to get an accurate predictions but just a mere guess that could coincide. The earliest predictions has always been there’s always a huge pump when an halving is close by or after each Halving. But also bitcoin price is also been hit by economic factors from government policies, recession and also aggravated FUDs during either collapse of commercial banks or top exchanges. This or many could affect the price of bitcoin either negatively or positively, so it definitely hard to get an almost near certainty in its predictions.

Lorence.xD

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Quote from: Helena Yu on March 28, 2023, 03:09:20 AM

Satoshi already predict the future of Bitcoin from a long time ago.

Quote from: satoshi on February 14, 2010, 10:52:23 AM

I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.

He was said that in 2010, we're only need to wait the next 7 years more in order to see Bitcoin is really have very large transaction volume or nothing. However he was said about volume, not the price. Maybe Satoshi thought Bitcoin could be a currency and adopted by many countries, because when Bitcoin is adopted become a legal tender, obviously it will encourage people to use it for daily life.

No one can predict the market. Even you as the maker of Bitcoin couldn't have an idea that it will worth a lot as of today. It took years before pumping a lot with its demand. Imagine the volatile system of bitcoin so you can't confidently say that it will reach to the moon.

Bitcoin could be already used as an alternate currency even before. With its popularity and value as of now, people have an idea what is bitcoin so it can be adopted as a currency in our daily lives. You could already see some businesses, transactions and mode of payment outside the internet so I think it can be used as an "alternate currency" since we're still sticking to fiat money. Because if we're gonna use bitcoin as our currency today, I don't know what would be the economic situation to our world once we adopted bitcoin as our currency.

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Quote from: Helena Yu on March 28, 2023, 03:09:20 AM

Satoshi already predict the future of Bitcoin from a long time ago.

Quote from: satoshi on February 14, 2010, 10:52:23 AM

I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.

He was said that in 2010, we're only need to wait the next 7 years more in order to see Bitcoin is really have very large transaction volume or nothing. However he was said about volume, not the price. Maybe Satoshi thought Bitcoin could be a currency and adopted by many countries, because when Bitcoin is adopted become a legal tender, obviously it will encourage people to use it for daily life.

He created bitcoin to be a P2P payment method, a currency, not an asset for speculation. And we used bitcoin in a different way from the beginning, and it continues to spread to this day. I bet the later market participants don't know what the real purpose of bitcoin is, what they do know is that investing in bitcoin is to get rich.

Given the way the government is treating bitcoin, I doubt they will accept it as legal tender in the future. They hate it more than they love it, so that's a big challenge for bitcoin.

tbct_mt2

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Quote from: Helena Yu on March 28, 2023, 03:09:20 AM

Satoshi already predict the future of Bitcoin from a long time ago.

Quote from: satoshi on February 14, 2010, 10:52:23 AM

I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.

He was said that in 2010, we're only need to wait the next 7 years more in order to see Bitcoin is really have very large transaction volume or nothing. However he was said about volume, not the price. Maybe Satoshi thought Bitcoin could be a currency and adopted by many countries, because when Bitcoin is adopted become a legal tender, obviously it will encourage people to use it for daily life.

Satoshi had no idea will Bitcoin be accepted and have large transaction volume or will not be accepted and have no volume.

In 2023, we can conclude from fact and on-chain proof that demand is large and transaction volume is huge. With time, Bitcoin has been accepted more and its blockchain has been used more. People have to stay in queue to have confirmation for their transactions.

What will happen in next 10 years?

I believe it will continue the uptrend of adoption and likely exponential adoption.

DapanasFruit

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Yes, there is always that repetitive cycle and one can use in understanding it to one's advantage most especially in investing and trading. However, just like human nature, there are also times when things can deviate from historical pattern and this can also be normal. I am not good in investing nor trading and that is why am always interested with many predictions in the past that came true and those that never materialize. So anybody can tell what can generally happen in the year 2024, please?

Poorwithbtc.eth

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Quote from: Helena Yu on March 28, 2023, 03:09:20 AM

Satoshi already predict the future of Bitcoin from a long time ago.

Quote from: satoshi on February 14, 2010, 10:52:23 AM

I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.

He was said that in 2010, we're only need to wait the next 7 years more in order to see Bitcoin is really have very large transaction volume or nothing. However he was said about volume, not the price. Maybe Satoshi thought Bitcoin could be a currency and adopted by many countries, because when Bitcoin is adopted become a legal tender, obviously it will encourage people to use it for daily life.

To reach the pinnacle of a profession, we must understand why it was born? History is always repetitive and cyclical. When we understand that, we will understand the operating rules from which to predict the future (of course we are talking about the model of the macro).

Dave1

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Quote from: Poorwithbtc.eth on March 28, 2023, 02:57:11 AM

Investing or any industry, if you ignore the historical factor, it means you leave out the data about the market. The market principle is always iterative because human psychology is also iterative, so if you take away the lessons that the market has taught you in the past, you cannot predict the future market well 👌

=> If you study a field thoroughly from basic to advanced things like why it appeared, by whom and how, .... Then there will come a time when you will be able to predict the future. its. And that is also the reason why great people have the ability to predict the future like Tesla, Leonardo da Vinci, ... Why don't we apply that in investing in general and investing in virtual currencies in particular?

It's because bitcoin has 4 year cycle, or at there is what we call bitcoin halving happening every 4 years. So that alone is also cyclical, no matter what happens, the block halving is going to occur as it is written by Satoshi.

So that is the only thing that we can predict, so as far as we know, the price will go on a massive bull run but we don't know what will be the highest peak or the all time high. Predicting it is going to be very difficult, we have seen in the past cycles about some modelling that predicted bitcoin will be $100k or 6 digits in the last bull run but it didn't happen as we the highest we achieved is $69k.

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Quote from: Poorwithbtc.eth on March 28, 2023, 02:57:11 AM

Why don't we apply that in investing in general and investing in virtual currencies in particular?

Let us wait and see what would happen in 2024 after bitcoin halving, if the price of bitcoin increased and got to all-time-high again, you will notice that people are using the historical events to predict what the price of bitcoin and altcoins can be. Did you saw what happened in 2022, the price of cryptocurrencies fell, also that people knew that it would be more dawn on altcoins than bitcoin and it happens just like that.

The only people that are getting it wrong are people that do not make any research, people that only what they are trying to do is to fomo and nothing more. These are the kind of people that also like and panic to sell while losing just little amount while the price may later be in their favouring direction.

Nwada001

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There are already lots of predictions applied to the investment strategies; people predict how the coin price is going to be and when the price will hit its target; we already have those experts, and they are already active in investment.
The only thing is that most of the time predictions don't happen the way they are predicted to. Some factors can cause a drastic market change, which will affect an already predicted price.

I don't really think anyone should invest in any coin or token without looking at the fundamentals of what can really come out of the project, etc. Unless those who are just out there to buy whatever they think is good for buying and holding find that it sometimes works in their favor.

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Quote from: Helena Yu on March 28, 2023, 03:09:20 AM

Satoshi already predict the future of Bitcoin from a long time ago.

Quote from: satoshi on February 14, 2010, 10:52:23 AM

I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.

He was said that in 2010, we're only need to wait the next 7 years more in order to see Bitcoin is really have very large transaction volume or nothing. However he was said about volume, not the price. Maybe Satoshi thought Bitcoin could be a currency and adopted by many countries, because when Bitcoin is adopted become a legal tender, obviously it will encourage people to use it for daily life.

Satoshi prediction was 50-50 because it is hard go give an actual conclusion on the volume of bitcoin. He knows that bitcoin will not be able to replace fiat. Bitcoin was designed to be an alternative currency, which means it is a choice for people to use it or not. Presently,due to people seeing bitcoin as a store of value and an assets with high privacy has made the volume to be increasing day by day. If tomorrow a better project pops up and is more valuable than bitcoin, I believe that the volume of bitcoin acquired will begin to go down. Nobody can predict the future of bitcoin because it is a volatile assets. We can only study bitcoin movement based on past event because life cycle repeats itself.

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If you look at the cyclical nature of history, it shows that patterns are repeated, including in finance and investment. By understanding the past, we can gain valuable insights into the present and the future. However, predicting the future with certainty is impossible. While knowledge and analysis can inform our decisions, they cannot completely eliminate risk.

This is always important to think about because Investing in virtual currency requires careful consideration of the market, technology and regulations, as well as a willingness to adapt to changing circumstances. In the end, success in investing requires a balance between knowledge, skill and luck.

Helena Yu

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Satoshi already predict the future of Bitcoin from a long time ago.

Quote from: satoshi on February 14, 2010, 10:52:23 AM

I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.

He was said that in 2010, we're only need to wait the next 7 years more in order to see Bitcoin is really have very large transaction volume or nothing. However he was said about volume, not the price. Maybe Satoshi thought Bitcoin could be a currency and adopted by many countries, because when Bitcoin is adopted become a legal tender, obviously it will encourage people to use it for daily life.

Poorwithbtc.eth

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Investing or any industry, if you ignore the historical factor, it means you leave out the data about the market. The market principle is always iterative because human psychology is also iterative, so if you take away the lessons that the market has taught you in the past, you cannot predict the future market well 👌

=> If you study a field thoroughly from basic to advanced things like why it appeared, by whom and how, .... Then there will come a time when you will be able to predict the future. its. And that is also the reason why great people have the ability to predict the future like Tesla, Leonardo da Vinci, ... Why don't we apply that in investing in general and investing in virtual currencies in particular?

Topic: Everything is cyclical and repetitive. Bitcoin is no exception - page 2. (Read 323 times)