Exchanges shutting down | Bitcointalksearch.org

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: anu on October 24, 2011, 02:05:45 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on October 18, 2011, 04:28:13 AM

For all I care they could all shut down.

A decentralized exchange method will come up.

Better come up with a decentralized way of doing Silk Road Grin

Well what you exchange doesn't really matter at this point, but I think we aren't that far away from a decentralized anonymous grid computing platform.
I think we could even call it skynet, it would obviously get demonized might as well go for the real deal Grin

anu

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on October 18, 2011, 04:28:13 AM

For all I care they could all shut down.

A decentralized exchange method will come up.

Better come up with a decentralized way of doing Silk Road Grin

PatrickHarnett

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Quote from: cypherdoc on October 20, 2011, 12:47:48 PM

if i total the 4 volume currency bars i get 4.4 M USD revenue. multiply by 1.2% gives monthly revenues of $52800. more than enough for expenses plus healthy profits.

Or just take the 30-day volume from bitcoin charts.

MtGox = USD5.416m
TradeHill = USD0.585m
Several others > $100k

Even some of the little start-ups have modest volume over $1000 in a month, and while they will not get very rich even at a 1% fee, it's not costing them a lot to set up.

cypherdoc

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Quote from: Nagle on October 20, 2011, 11:39:23 AM

Quote from: cypherdoc on October 20, 2011, 08:46:52 AM

you really are disgusting Nagle. the volumes on the y axis at BitcoinCharts are in Bitcoins, not USD. for example go there and look at just Todays Volume=28,592 BTC or 66,225.74 USD. thats an extraordinary profit.

Go to the left column of a chart on BitcoinCharts. Click the checkbox marked "Volume in Currency".

ok, i did. change the time period to 1 month on a weekly basis with show volume bars and volume in currency checked. lets take the last 4 wks volume which will undershoot mtgox's revenues since these ~~probably~~ represent the weakest volumes since May.

if i total the 4 volume currency bars i get 4.4 M USD revenue. multiply by 1.2% gives monthly revenues of $52800. more than enough for expenses plus healthy profits.

nmat

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Quote from: cypherdoc on October 20, 2011, 08:46:52 AM

you really are disgusting Nagle. the volumes on the y axis at BitcoinCharts are in Bitcoins, not USD. for example go there and look at just Todays Volume=28,592 BTC or 66,225.74 USD. thats an extraordinary profit.

Volumes are incredibly low right now. We are coming back to April/May levels, which may also may explain the price drop.

Nagle

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Quote from: cypherdoc on October 20, 2011, 08:46:52 AM

you really are disgusting Nagle. the volumes on the y axis at BitcoinCharts are in Bitcoins, not USD. for example go there and look at just Todays Volume=28,592 BTC or 66,225.74 USD. thats an extraordinary profit.

Go to the left column of a chart on BitcoinCharts. Click the checkbox marked "Volume in Currency".

cypherdoc

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http://www.downside.com/

everyone please go to this piece of sh*t and draw your own conclusions.

cypherdoc

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Quote from: Nagle on October 18, 2011, 03:24:02 AM

Take a look at all those black bars on Bitcoin Charts. ExchB's shutdown was the big news today, but several of the little guys have given it up recently as well. We're down to Mt. Gox, Tradehill, and Btc-E now.

here is a list of exchanges.

Quote

Now look at the volumes in dollars. The standard 0.6% commission rate yields about $8000 per month for Mt. Gox, $810 per month for Tradehill, and $384 a month for Btc-E. And that's a maximum; many big traders get discounts.

you really are disgusting Nagle. the volumes on the y axis at BitcoinCharts are in Bitcoins, not USD. for example go there and look at just Todays Volume=28,592 BTC or 66,225.74 USD. thats an extraordinary profit.

Quote

Tradehill apparently has a real organization and staff, but revenue is comparable to a half-time job at McDonalds. That can't last. Btc-E, forget it. Mt. Gox has some business in other currencies, but the numbers aren't that big.

The end is in sight.

how much do they pay you to be stupid?

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: eldentyrell on October 20, 2011, 01:19:07 AM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on October 18, 2011, 04:28:13 AM

A decentralized exchange method will come up.

A huge part of we call an "exchange" is largely an "interface to the fiat banking system".

The fiat banking system will not interface with a decentralized exchange.

Yes, I agree. However nobody can stop us from using chash anyway we want... at least not yet and certainly not within the timeframe a more wider btc adaption is thinkable.

cypherdoc

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Nagle on October 18, 2011, 03:24:02 AM

Take a look at all those black bars on Bitcoin Charts. ExchB's shutdown was the big news today, but several of the little guys have given it up recently as well. We're down to Mt. Gox, Tradehill, and Btc-E now.

Now look at the volumes in dollars. The standard 0.6% commission rate yields about $8000 per month for Mt. Gox, $810 per month for Tradehill, and $384 a month for Btc-E. And that's a maximum; many big traders get discounts.

Tradehill apparently has a real organization and staff, but revenue is comparable to a half-time job at McDonalds. That can't last. Btc-E, forget it. Mt. Gox has some business in other currencies, but the numbers aren't that big.

The end is in sight.

It is clear that one should not open a casino without deep pockets...

But this has to be spin in the worst way because I can not believe you would be so gone on your calculations otherwise.

First of all, the commission is taken on both the buy and the sell side of the transaction. So, let's take the example of TradeHill...

Monthly Dollar Volume: $619,375
.054% X 2: $6,689 per month.

Not $810 per month. Admittedly, nobody at TradeHill is getting rich, but the nominal per capita GDP in Chile for 2010 was $11,828/year. That could provide a few middle class salaries there. Much better than a McDonalds worker in the U.S.

Seriously dude, why would you skew this so much? It does nothing but harm your credibility. If you want to make the case for the death of Bitcoin at least show some real numbers.

its long been my contention that the only way to explain Nagles dedicated participation here on this forum is that he is a paid troll. there is no other way to justify the amount of time and energy he spends here. look at his pathetic website one day and ask yourself why he doesn't bother to post more than once a year on his own creation?

eldentyrell

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on October 18, 2011, 04:28:13 AM

A decentralized exchange method will come up.

A huge part of we call an "exchange" is largely an "interface to the fiat banking system".

The fiat banking system will not interface with a decentralized exchange.

PatrickHarnett

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When I went past MtGox's office in July it was unfortunately a Saturday and closed, but the offices were part of a major corporation, not a small bitcoin trading company. They might rent some space or use some of the hosting services for the IT company there, but not a proper "store front".

More likely they operate out of the "home" address that was hunted up some months ago. Plus, the cost of running it once it is set up is smaller.

imsaguy

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on October 18, 2011, 04:28:13 AM

For all I care they could all shut down.

A decentralized exchange method will come up.

#bitcoin-otc

tvbcof

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Regarding exchange revenue, two factors which make it hard (for me) to do the math are as follows:

1) who does dark pool stuff (at least CampBX iirc) and if anyone, is it possible to obtain some rough numbers here?

2) The overhead of dealing with funding hassles, fraud, AML stuff, etc must be significant. I would guess that would even a majority of the operating expenses for an enterprise which is big enough to do it semi-adequately, and then even if it is about as well automated as possible.

old_engineer

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Quote from: Zotia on October 18, 2011, 01:31:46 PM

The lowest commission rate at mtgox is 0.25%, so let's use that as a minimum...

MTGOX... 6,136,000 USD * 0.0025 * 2 = 30,680 USD
TH... 619,000 USD * 0.0025 * 2 = 3,095 USD
BTCE... 293,000 USD * 0.0025 * 2 = 1,465 USD

Back when hey had a flat 0.6% back in June, they made $42,000 IN ONE DAY when volume was $3.5M, and have had a number of days over $20k. I guess there still is a lot of interest in bitcoin, wouldn't you agree Nagle?

The network effect is strong, and though 2-3 exchanges would be nice, the fact that bitcoin doesn't need any exchanges is worth pointing out yet again.

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Quote from: Nagle on October 18, 2011, 03:24:02 AM

Now look at the volumes in dollars. The standard 0.6% commission rate yields about $8000 per month for Mt. Gox, $810 per month for Tradehill, and $384 a month for Btc-E.

The current 30 day volumes for those sites at the time of this post...
(See http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/ for current numbers).

6,136,000 USD for MTGOX
619,000 USD for TH
293,000 USD for BTCE

Now let's calculate their monthly income at 0.6% commission that is taken from both sides of the trade...

MTGOX... 6,136,000 USD * 0.006 * 2 = 73,632 USD
TH... 619,000 USD * 0.006 * 2 = 7,428 USD
BTCE... 293,000 USD * 0.006 * 2 = 3,516 USD

You are off by nearly an order of magnitude.

Quote from: Nagle on October 18, 2011, 03:24:02 AM

And that's a maximum; many big traders get discounts.

The lowest commission rate at mtgox is 0.25%, so let's use that as a minimum...

MTGOX... 6,136,000 USD * 0.0025 * 2 = 30,680 USD
TH... 619,000 USD * 0.0025 * 2 = 3,095 USD
BTCE... 293,000 USD * 0.0025 * 2 = 1,465 USD

Nagle

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Quote from: old_engineer on October 18, 2011, 04:31:48 AM

Average volume for the past month looks like about $150k USD/day, which at 0.5% commission, is $750/day, or $22500 per month. Are you sure you were looking at volume in dollars, and not volume in bitcoins? $8000 per month / .006 = $1.3M per month, and they had $600k in currency volume yesterday alone.

You are right. Sorry.

Of course, with Bitcoins at $2.50 or so, the difference isn't that big any more. Even Mt. Gox's $22K a month isn't much for a business in Tokyo which has a few employees, a server farm, bank transaction costs, and substantial exposure to theft losses.

Every other exchange is making too little money to survive.

d.james

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Quote from: Nagle on October 18, 2011, 03:24:02 AM

Now look at the volumes in dollars. The standard 0.6% commission rate yields about $8000 per month for Mt. Gox, $810 per month for Tradehill, and $384 a month for Btc-E. And that's a maximum; many big traders get discounts.

AFAIK, Mt.Gox charges 0.6% standard commission for both buyers and sellers, effectively they're charging 1.2% for each trade.
So they're getting $16,000 a month max(assuming your $8000 figure was correct),still not a lot but surely looks twice as better.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: kokjo on October 18, 2011, 08:33:27 AM

Quote from: Crypt_Current on October 18, 2011, 08:29:32 AM

It was actually pretty scary (I remember reading it in 2005), but thankfully never ratified, as far as I can tell:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_establishing_a_Constitution_for_Europe

+1 see? Europe is better, ElectricMucus.

Well... unless I'm living under a rock

Quote

In the June 2007 European summit meeting, Member States agreed to abandon the constitution and to amend the existing treaties, which would remain in force. They also agreed a detailed mandate for a new intergovernmental conference to negotiate a new treaty containing such amendments to the existing treaties (primarily the Treaty of Rome and the Treaty of Maastricht). These negotiations were completed by the end of the year, the new treaty which had previously been referred to as the Reform Treaty become the Lisbon Treaty on its signing in Lisbon on 13 December 2007.

And this is almost as bad, but besides the case (or not it still reduces the sovereignty of member states and so increases centralization)

I live in Austria, we have something here called the "Sicherheitspolizeigesetz" which is essentially the Patriot act adopted for a small nation without substantial military resources but it reduces civil liberties non the less and was adopted imminently after the USA did their Patriot Act.
While some implementations of whatever you may call it may sound more liberal at first glance if you look into it it basically means the same pretext can be applied in the same exact way as in the "big thing" from the US.

Right there are some places in the industrialized world which lead the whole thing in terms of practical usage, I wouldn't want to live in London, NYC or Singapore but besides some hotspots there is a continuous trend towards a more police state like society as well.

Serge

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OP, lets call it the end now and release you once for all from returning back here Wink

Topic: Exchanges shutting down (Read 4606 times)