Topic: expected return on investment with ASIC's - page 2. (Read 3939 times)

How about it organofcorti! Im standing next to Rampion with the same sea of questions roaring in my head!

Do you mind obliging ... Thanks in advance, i can safely say "we" appreciate youre efforts.

loshia, I don't think I've ever thought you were trying to get into a fight at any point. You're always polite and your criticism is always welcome.

I'd been assuming that when I wrote "at the current exchange rate" people would infer that for other USD BTC prices the max mining difficulty would be different. Perhaps I didn't make my comment as clear as I could.

I admire your models and i am not trying to get in fight with you. I do also have some stats background. Yes you can simulate the price and everything in life but it depends on human behaviour also which is hard to simulate

Best

I've become really curious about the two prominent dips in the Past Network Difficulty. 

The first one is kind of obvious, after the June 2011 $32 spike a number of miners simply switched off as they saw their profits evaporating.
The second one was caused by the block reward halving in December 2012, a number of miners got out as their rewards were cut in half. 

But could we see a third significant dip in network difficulty moving forward?  The total amount of hashpower contributed by non-ASIC devices is somewhere in the ballpark of 20 TH/s.  As more ASICs come online there will only be an incentive to turn off the GPU's and to a lesser extent, FPGA's.  Even ASIC owners may be astonished at the rise in network difficulty, but even at 100 million difficulty (1e8) an Avalon owner will still be churning out 1/3 of a bitcoin a day. 

By the time the network reaches a difficulty factor of 1 billion (1e9) we'll see interesting things happen in the mining world.  A 67 gH/s Avalon, top tier tech by todays standards, will only churn out 0.03 BTC per day.  Either newer and faster machines will have to debut, or gone are the days when you could plop down a couple grand for a machine that would mint you a substantial sum of BTC.  Such level of scarcity might make it far more desirable to simply buy a couple grand worth of BTC itself

At current exchange rate, as mentioned above. I have some old charts but they only went up to an exchange rate of $20 and plenty of people thought I was wasting time taking it that far. Ah well. Have to generate new charts.

The first ones buying the shovels will make a lot of money. But at the end of the day the only ones doing a LOT of money will be the ones selling the shovels.

You are not taking into account BTC price organofcorti:) That is unknown variable for sure.

However what you are saying sounds reasonable but in general gold rush will end only when gold ends. There will be a lot to come  

Organofcorti, I deeply respect your projections and therefore your well educated opinion: what would you believe to be a reasonable pricing for Avalon batch #4, if official shipping date is "early June" and therefore most likely delivery date in July?

With reasonable I mean a pricing that will very likely allow a ROI + some profits (in BTC, as it's impossible to know the exchange rate in X months)

I'm debating with myself if doing a considerable investment in Avalon batch #4 (disclaimer: I could have a very reasonable electrical cost)

If more efficient ASIC miners are not offered, the network hashrate will plateau when we hit very high difficulty out as those with higher electricity costs start to switch off. At the current exchange rate, a 67Ghps Avalon will run at a loss in California when mining difficulty reaches ~ 3 billion.

That depends on you dude
Take wise decisions and they will pay out. Acting stupid will lead all of us to failure

what if when you get the asic's running your return is so low you will never make your ROI? will you continue to order/build/deploy miners?

Level Out ?

All guy's here are ordering (including me) like crazy. Some are ordering now BFL. when do you think they are going to get their BFL units ordered now? It will level out if we level out or if BTC collapses. I do not want second to happen for sure but chances for the first one to happen are almost 0  

Just look at new ASIC scams threads about 40 pages to level out. If they were not scams? The rule of the game is that if someone wants a steady profit of X the reinvestment of Y is a must. I am talking about mining strictly here. Speculations is another story

don't you think the difficulty will level out at some point? after august-dec maybe? and at the point the cost to run the miners may exceed the return

If any investment in BTC hardware turns into years it can be considered dead or infinity in terms of roi. So i would say if you do not get BTC ROI in 5-7 months max consider that it will take forever amusing the difficulty will be raising quickly. In day one having asic in your hands you has to be able to get your roi "on paper" for 3-4 months max. they will turn to 7-8 eventually but you will not loose.

Difficulty will most likely 10 fold in less than 6 months.

http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2013/04/914-asic-earnings-23-april-2013.html

After looking at the data around the expected hash rate & difficulty - what is the estimated ROI? I'd say 3 to 5 years