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I mean we are likely talking about 10s of billions of dollars - not all at once but over some period of time - which would probably increase the market cap by hundreds of billions of dollars. Then of course there is the hype around an ETF when it gets accepted and the FOMO that will result from the raising price that happens as ETFs get picked up more and more by investors. I could definitely see ETFs being the catalyst for the next boom, though I imagine it would take at least half a year of buildup after being accepted for the ETF to actually exist and people to start putting money into it and for it to really start booming the price.
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I think your predictions are way too optimistic. If the ETF has to be backed by actual Bitcoins, it will obviously
cause the influx of additional money into BTC. However, the influx will be nowhere near the amounts that you claim.
Institutional investors are mostly not even allowed to invest in this asset class for various reasons and
therefore couldn´t invest hundreds of billions of dollars even if they wanted too. Besides, most funds
follow certain strategies and don´t simply allocate funds to risky investments like BTC. E.g. a fund that
is mostly invested in stocks from a certain part of the world isn´t going to invest billions of $ into BTC, because
that isn´t even remotely related to their area of expertise.
I´d rather argue that the next block reward halving in 2020 will be the catalyst for the next bull run and the ETF
will be a non-event even if it does get approved.