did you make this chart yourself or are you copying it from somewhere?
why is it rising exponentially instead of with a fixed rate:
https://blockchain.info/charts/block-size it has been an straight line so far according to this chart after 4 years block size should be ~240GB
and even if the block size is increased again the rise should be an straight line not exponential growth.
p.s. i think you should move this topic to New Posts Development & Technical Discussion otherwise it will get buried here and i really want to know how much of what i said is right and how much of it is wrong.
The blockchain has gained about 20GB in less than 12 months.
That's not straight line since Bitcoin was launched 6 years ago.
It's my chart.
The blockchain.info data seems to agree with me to some degree
https://blockchain.info/charts/blocks-size?timespan=allyes but blocks that were mined a long time ago were small size blocks and i don't think it is correct to use that data for extrapolation.
for example block
329100 was 99KB (2014-11)
229100 was 184KB (2013-4)
129100 was 13KB (2011-6)
and so on but if you change the timespan=2year you can see in the last two years it is an straight line which is because of the nearly full blocks.
starting from end of 2014 ishi think it is mostly mid 2015!
so if you want to extrapolate you should only consider the data that is similar which means the same block size starting at end of 2014 ish (or find the original time) then with the fixed (800-900 KB) size blocks the increase is an stable rise (straight line)
let me just add that my logic will only work as long as we stick to the max 1MB block which is the current protocol. so it will rise following that straight line that i keep saying.
calculating the future would be something like this:
number of blocks mined each day * size of one block (1MB or 900 average)
but if block size increased then all these calculations would be wrong and depending on the size of blocks (1.1, 1.2, .... 1.9, 2+,...) it would be different.
