Topic: FAIRLAY - The Bitcoin prediction market (Read 3682 times)

We recently have a lot of activity on our regular "next difficulty prediction"

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-31b/

bet against difficulty >31B at odds of 3.5. Note that from the current difficulty data odds should be more like 2. (50%/50%).

Some sources that predict the difficulty and their current prediction:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty: 31,109,256,240
https://cryptanalys.is/difficulty/bitcoin_btc.php: 29,611,949,922
http://www.vnbitcoin.org/bitcoincalculator.php: 29,804,000,000
http://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history: 30171493992

Thus all sites (in exception of bitcoinwisdom) predict a difficulty of <31B that would bring you 3.5 times your money back.

We have a couple of predictions on the auction of the silk road sized coins:
For example will the lowest price of a Block be < $450?

https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/price/

We have a lot of new events and some predictions are waiting to get matched.

For example more than 100mBTC are predicted on next difficulty < 10B. To me that looks like a good chance to grab some coins...
If you look at bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-10b/

Find more of the latest bets:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/latest

Posted from Bitcointa.lk - #XV3BbGFYKtJ8XXzZ

Yap - very good suggestion - we really need more liquidity - only then the hole project makes sense and is a useful and fun tool for everyone.

We will work on that.

Yes! And also put a wagering condition on the prize, but not something like 30 times ... something like 0.5 of the prize has to be placed in bets before withdrawal .... this way you make sure you will have money in bets and that will attract more people

my humble opinion!

thank you for the kind words!

However after the beta with about 1000 user we felt confident to start some weeks ago on: fairlay.com - you can predict no with Bitcoin.

On 188.165.246.217 you can try out everthing with test-net-coins - read more and how here: http://blog.fairlay.com/2014/04/test-fairlay-with-free-testnet-coins/
However - it is really just for testing - it is not really fun because the we maintain the prediction poorly here.

Maybe we will reactivate the credit version again where user can predict every month in a small competition and the winners get some real BTC for fairlay. Could be fun and maybe a good promotion for us. 

Wow I'm interested in your site. I like how you're taking time to make sure the kinks are worked out before just opening and dealing with issues and glitches just to make a quick buck. Do we have an ETA for opening for real? Can you still play with credits right now?

We need your help - what is your favorite version, vote here:
http://blog.fairlay.com/2014/05/could-you-help-us-make-a-decision/

We give up to 0.5 Bitcoins for user making a prediction on fairlay:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.6564735

Hey - we just started a couple of new events: we focus now on predicting the difficulty:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/

Also, we just made it possible to comments on bets and discuss them.

at the first glance the websites look similar. But the betting system is SUBSTANTIAL different. I will write a blog post and explain why and why we believe our is more fair for the user.

Same website layout , same principle as Bitbet.us.
I don't see many features that are better than Bitbet.us and does not seem innovative , but just like a clone.

But hey , if you are anyways cloning their website , why not copy their bets ?
Most of their bet ideas are pretty awesome , like a long-term prediction about value of Bitcoin or if the joke coin called Dogecoin will be still alive by April fools day.

I think we try to focus on this thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/fairlaycom-the-future-of-reliable-information-433086

We posted a nice offer there where you can earn Bitcoins by suggesting new bets.

And by the way: sorry for the missing communication in this thread in the last weeks. And the short confusion with a changed highscore. We have been very busy working on the real Bitcoin version and in this process we changed the server to a more secure one. We changed now the function of the highscore - now it shows the top winners of the last week.

We still have tons of features on our list - so keep calm for updated! But most important place your first bet!! If you like as little as 1mBTC.

Just wanted to post a announcement - but found you already noticed it.

Yes!! Fairlay just launched! We are online. All winners from the beta got credited their Bitcoins and they are free to withdrawal them or place a new bet

Any suggestions for more bets?

I can confirm withdrawals are working!
only a few minutes and I got my coins!

looks like it´s live now
At least there are new bets and the announcement page was removed and replaced with the fairly mainpage.

Any official statement regarding the launch? deposits/withdrawals are working?

looking really forward to using fairly

Is the beta period got over ?

High scores
#    Credits    Prize    
1    8,999,000.00    200 mBTC    
2    8,948,000.00    120 mBTC    
3    8,897,000.00    80 mBTC    
4    8,856,000.00    40 mBTC    
5    8,795,000.00    40 mBTC    
6    8,744,000.00    20 mBTC    
7    8,693,000.00    20 mBTC    
8    8,642,000.00    20 mBTC    
9    8,601,000.00    20 mBTC    
10    8,540,000.00    20 mBTC    
11    8,489,000.00    20 mBTC    
12    3,011,673.67    10 mBTC    
13    1,838,289.79    10 mBTC    
14    970,778.38    10 mBTC    
15    888,379.56    10 mBTC    
16    593,285.21    10 mBTC    
17    508,451.46    10 mBTC    
18    495,458.99    10 mBTC    
19    475,600.90    10 mBTC    
20    459,537.46    10 mBTC    
21    455,594.45    10 mBTC

WTF just happened? from where did those 8 mil credits accounts appeared?
When the real game will start?

Looks okay, will check this out sometime

This are the winners!
High scores
#.   Credits.         Prize
1.  3,006,673.67. 200 mBTC
2.  1,838,289.79. 120 mBTC
3.  970,778.38.     80 mBTC
4.  888,379.56.     40 mBTC
5.  593,285.21.     40 mBTC
6.  508,451.46.     20 mBTC
7.  495,458.99.     20 mBTC
8.  475,600.90.     20 mBTC
9.  459,537.46.     20 mBTC
10. 455,594.45.    20 mBTC
11. 421,773.63.    20 mBTC
12. 419,755.29.    10 mBTC
13. 399,999.99.    10 mBTC
14. 347,156.88.    10 mBTC
15. 303,565.74.    10 mBTC
16. 294,732.08.    10 mBTC
17. 260,883.50.    10 mBTC
18. 249,319.03.    10 mBTC
19. 228,129.17.    10 mBTC
20. 220,818.09.    10 mBTC
21. 204,235.01.    10 mBTC

Or you want their usernames to hack their accounts?

Hi, who are the winners?

Wheb the real betting will start?

Can we resolve some bets please?

MtGox reopens trading again...    
Kraken price at 320€ or lower...    

Thanks!

So when it will actually end? on 1st March 23.59 or or 2nd March 23.59?

set a bet for Aurora!

1    Bitcoin    $ 7,223,482,852    $ 579.97    12,454,925 BTC    $ 23,909,739    -2.07 %    
2    Ripple    $ 1,423,536,532    $ 0.014    99,999,997,890 XRP*    $ 103,805    -0.11 %    
3    Litecoin    $ 371,062,681    $ 14.22    26,095,954 LTC    $ 3,698,380    -1.51 %    
4    Auroracoin    $ 184,532,573    $ 17.43    10,588,226 AUR    $ 152,955    ?

Already passed LTC in price and I bet that in a few hours will pass LTC in Market Cap (maximum 12 hours!)

So I think the bet should be against ripple!

I truly believe that it will pass Ripple before you end beta on 2nd March!

sorry had a short delay with this bet. We have resolved it and set up some new MtGox bets:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/coins/mtgox/

Spread between MtGox and Bitst...    708.00    14.40 / 6.944    Yes    708.00    being resolved    To-be-resolved      N/A    To-be-resolved      N/A

when this will be resolved?

We decide - we have to rely on major news article.

Where is all the result come from ?

We added a new category: current affairs: with this bet:
Date for Ukrainian presidential elections announced to take place before end of April

https://www.fairlay.com/bet/registered/new/date-for-ukrainian-presidential-elections-announced-to-take-place-before-end-of-april/

Nice! I like it!

But what happened with the person on number 2? he had 1.5mil credits earlier!

The High score is online!!

check your total balance on your profile page and your rank in the highscore here:
https://www.fairlay.com/highscore/

That is why we are in Beta. We have not implemented a process yet. If you find someone else how is willing to bet one Russia you basically make free credits.

Sorry - and thx - we have corrected it to the real resolution date.

another past event -> you can still bet on if the russian ice hockey team will win gold
at the winter olympics.

this is not possible anymore, because they lost 3:1 against finnland and therefore are out
already in the quarter-finals 

What is this? I can bet for past events!?

Damn! If I'm In top 3 how much did those guys one?

We wrote a blog article about it:
http://blog.fairlay.com/2014/02/how-a-bet-made-someone-else-buy-us-4000-fake-facebook-likes/

P.S. We are still working on the laederboard, will be done soon, but I can already tell you that you are at least in the top 3.

OMG! Well I would like to say a big Thank you to the guy that got you the likes on facebook!
I was almost ready to bed all my money on NO to minimize my losings but it seems that he wanted a YES at that bet!
And of course I've put all my money on yes at a low rate but that got me an extra 80k credits
Although I don't think it's nice what happened I'm one of the lucky winners of what he did
If you can please make a leader board as I'm way to curious to see if he won more than I did!

It is hard to say - we really need do not now yet. We really want to be sure that everything is working. The earliest in mid march.

what is the estimated date for the start of the real fairlay (i mean after the beta promo, when is it
going to be live and we are able to bet with real bitcoins) ?

thank you for explaining - thats exactly how it works.

Unless someone else bets against your bet for over 0.01, then that remaining 0.01 will be returned to you with no deductions I believe.

The rest of your bet will still continue.

I've put a bet of 110108.90 and only 110108.89 is matched .... what that means?
That i will be paid with odds*110108.89 bet if i win or my bet will cancel if it will not be matched until the time ends?

Oh yes indeed!

I was focusing on central column as I can open links inside bet if they are on mid!

We already have it, don't we? The right column is sorted by the closing time.

Thanks, do you have a suggestion for a bet?
You can post that here: http://forum.fairlay.com/

One suggestion about your site!
Can you please make something that i can order bets after their closing time?

Yes - you were lucky to get odds this good. We were surprised so many people were willing to bet against Germany at such low odds. However, it is a free market.

200mBTC = 0.2 BTC

Nice

Thanks

Germany sent me there!
Germany No. 1 at Sochi Olympic...    59950.00    8.34 / 11.98    Yes    59950.00    44 minutes ago    Yes wins    705,564.73 Credits



Btw can you tell me how much is 200mBTC in BTC? is it 0.2 or 0.02?

If you have 705,605.87 Credits you are right now on place 2.

We will have a leaderboard soon where you can look it up.

Great site, I like the design and simplicity.
But adding more bets would be great.

where can I see how much other have?
Balance
    705,605.87 Credits


feel free to register with my reff link http://www.fairlay.com/?signup=383

Now - we are online now. www.fairlay.com

When does this start?

A blog post to the latest news around MtGox and how a prediction market could be a game changer:

Information should have a price, but a fair one
http://blog.fairlay.com/2014/02/information-should-have-a-price-but-a-fair-one/

looks great

Will check it out.

add me

That link seems down for me...  
Edit - It's working now.

Seak peek on fairlay.com
Bet overview:

Betting form:

You find the exact payout here: http://blog.fairlay.com/2014/02/fairlay-beta-promo/

Fairlay - the future of reliable information.


Fairlay seeks to crowd-source information by providing a totally open prediction market. Functioning more like a conditional betting exchange, Fairlay not only allows users to bet but to see public confidence on various bitcoin and altcoin related events, as well as sports, and general news. By using Bitcoin to allow users to demonstrate where their confidence lies regarding specific event, Fairlay can aggregate the wisdom of the majority.
There is a huge potential in he possibilities of an open prediction market. Bitcoin could be the technological enabler for that. Fairlay sees a prediction market as a great tool to evaluate risks, hedge risks and aggregate information. Why do we have lots of different numbers for weather forecasts or as election predictions? Fairlay believes that a working prediction market could aggregate all data into the best available forecast. If someone has newer or better information he is able to bet against the current prediction, improving the forecast and get rewarded in the process.


About Fairlay
Fairlay was founded in 2013 and is a London-based prediction/betting market. It specializes in getting reliable information for everyone. For more information, please visit https://fairlay.com .
After a very successfull beta challenge, where Fairlay was able to acquire over 1000 users, tracked over 8000 bets and had over 50 events to bet on, Fairlay just announced betting with real Bitcoins.