We recently saw some movement in the price of the block size limit debate.
https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/blockchain/all/?lt=1
Topic: FAIRLAY.COM - the future of reliable information. (Read 10461 times)
Added to my website. I hope that OP is satisfied with thumbnail and description 
if not, PM me!
if not, PM me!
Update 21.02.2015
we have extended our sport section tremendously and we are now by far the biggest Bitcoin betting exchange with total liquidity of several 1,000 BTC in sports.
additional noteworthy:
read more here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/fairlay-sports-betting-for-experts-highest-liquidity-provably-best-odds-673475
we have extended our sport section tremendously and we are now by far the biggest Bitcoin betting exchange with total liquidity of several 1,000 BTC in sports.
additional noteworthy:
- Betting exchange - bet against users, not against the house
- 0.00% fees on sport bets
- we have strong market makers that provide better odds than pinnacle with about the same liquidity
- no account needed
- API for market makers and other professionals or hackers: fairlay.com/api
read more here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/fairlay-sports-betting-for-experts-highest-liquidity-provably-best-odds-673475
Hi
Can I add this odd?
5.00 and 1.30?
Pls advise thanks
Can I add this odd?
5.00 and 1.30?
Pls advise thanks
Of course you can!
By the way: we have new events on the latest Bitstamp events: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/bad-news/
When will Bitstamp allow Bitcoin withdrawals again?
Hi
Can I add this odd?
5.00 and 1.30?
Pls advise thanks
Can I add this odd?
5.00 and 1.30?
Pls advise thanks
We are proud that we have now liquid markets with several hundert predictions on:
Politics: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/news/politics/
Bitcoin difficulty: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/difficulty/
and all kind of sports:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/sports/
Politics: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/news/politics/
Bitcoin difficulty: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/difficulty/
and all kind of sports:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/sports/
I think it is fair for you to cancel the bets placed after the most recent difficulty level which is September 13.
Sorry, we can not do this. At Fairlay predictions are always only between user. If we would give back BTC to those who lost money with a late prediction we would have to take it away from others. They would not accept that and in some cases we simply can not do it because the Bitcoins are already send to an address we do not control.
E.g: https://www.fairlay.com/anonymous/1CYsmywVd6NpxBrJZG13uZioXVG1s1gsn7/
We as Fairlay only earn 2% on the lost bets from the winners as fees. We would agree to give back this 2% we take if someone would ask us - but I guess this does not really help - sorry.
Is there anything we can do to make it better?
We do have two kind of difficulty predictions: one is on a specific jump:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-33b/
(normally the next diff)
The others are more longterm and that is why they are on a certain date like the end of the year like this one:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bitcoin-difficulty-75b-by-the-end-of-the-year/
We agree that if it comes to the end of the long term predictions things can get confusing but we are not sure how to do it different?
In theory the difficulty can change before the 15th of September. We agree to you that this will NOT happen, for sure.
However, normally we wait until the resolution date to resolve a event. But in this case we take the risk and resolve the event indeed earlier.
(in the VERY unlikely case that the outcome of the event will change we will pay the different outcome ourselves)
However, normally we wait until the resolution date to resolve a event. But in this case we take the risk and resolve the event indeed earlier.
(in the VERY unlikely case that the outcome of the event will change we will pay the different outcome ourselves)
It is better to say, "the next difficulty level" rather then a specific date because the difficulty might not change on a specific date. It is not fair not to close "the september 15" prediction down since the difficulty level just happened on September 13. It is not fair to the users and create confusion--unnecessary loss of money for nothing.
This is no different then asking people to predict the difficulty level for August 31st 2014. The event already had happened so if you know what you are doing you just look up. It is the one that does not know that is going to get hurt.
I think it is fair for you to cancel the bets placed after the most recent difficulty level which is September 13.
In theory the difficulty can change before the 15th of September. We agree to you that this will NOT happen, for sure.
However, normally we wait until the resolution date to resolve a event. But in this case we take the risk and resolve the event indeed earlier.
(in the VERY unlikely case that the outcome of the event will change we will pay the different outcome ourselves)
However, normally we wait until the resolution date to resolve a event. But in this case we take the risk and resolve the event indeed earlier.
(in the VERY unlikely case that the outcome of the event will change we will pay the different outcome ourselves)
Why are you letting people bet on something that's already had happened?
Why would you let people guess difficulty level >30B on September 15? This is impossible since the next difficulty level is going to be in 12 to 14 days and currently the difficulty level is 29,829,733,124, which is under 30B.
Why would you let people guess difficulty level >30B on September 15? This is impossible since the next difficulty level is going to be in 12 to 14 days and currently the difficulty level is 29,829,733,124, which is under 30B.
We recently have a lot of activity on our regular "next difficulty prediction"
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-31b/
bet against difficulty >31B at odds of 3.5. Note that from the current difficulty data odds should be more like 2. (50%/50%).
Some sources that predict the difficulty and their current prediction:
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty: 31,109,256,240
https://cryptanalys.is/difficulty/bitcoin_btc.php: 29,611,949,922
http://www.vnbitcoin.org/bitcoincalculator.php: 29,804,000,000
http://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history: 30171493992
Thus all sites (in exception of bitcoinwisdom) predict a difficulty of <31B that would bring you 3.5 times your money back.
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-31b/
bet against difficulty >31B at odds of 3.5. Note that from the current difficulty data odds should be more like 2. (50%/50%).
Some sources that predict the difficulty and their current prediction:
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty: 31,109,256,240
https://cryptanalys.is/difficulty/bitcoin_btc.php: 29,611,949,922
http://www.vnbitcoin.org/bitcoincalculator.php: 29,804,000,000
http://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history: 30171493992
Thus all sites (in exception of bitcoinwisdom) predict a difficulty of <31B that would bring you 3.5 times your money back.
Today we added a new feature: you can now place a bet/prediction without an account.
We have a new interesting bet:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bitcoin-will-outperform-top-10-altcoins/
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bitcoin-will-outperform-top-10-altcoins/
Some graphs our prediction market created so far:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/mtgox-will-find-50-000-more-btc
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/mh370-plane-found-in-april
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bitcoin-price-800
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-13-5b
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bitcoin-price-820
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/brazil-does-not-win-the-world-cup-and-there-will-be-casualties-in-subsequent-riots
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/every-difficulty-increase-in-2014-by-10
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/mtgox-will-find-50-000-more-btc
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/mh370-plane-found-in-april
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bitcoin-price-800
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-13-5b
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bitcoin-price-820
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/brazil-does-not-win-the-world-cup-and-there-will-be-casualties-in-subsequent-riots
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/every-difficulty-increase-in-2014-by-10
Great, thank you.
Oh - the game had more overtime than expected. Our bad - we will pay for it. Thus all wrong winners can keep there winnings and of course we will pay the correct winners as well.
Hi guys, you resolved this prediction incorrectly: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/greece-will-win-against-ivory-coast/
Greece won the game: http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/matches/round=255931/match=300186455/index.html
Greece won the game: http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/matches/round=255931/match=300186455/index.html
Sorry Nobitcoin - the offer is over but I guess we will do another one soon.
Now we have a couple of predictions on the auction of the silk road sized coins:
For example will the lowest price of a Block be < $450?
https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/price/
Now we have a couple of predictions on the auction of the silk road sized coins:
For example will the lowest price of a Block be < $450?
https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/price/
I'm sort of confused with your 0.5 btc offer. 5 bets at 0.01 = 0.05 so? Also is the offer still on?
We want more prediction on our Bitcoin and news related events: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/ and https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/news/
Thus we start a promotion today: If you place a prediction on a event and the prediction is matched fully and you write a short comment (on fairlay) why you placed this prediction (for example mentioning a statistic or news) then we refund you the prediction amount up to 0.01 Bitcoin per prediction and up to 5 prediction per user. (Thus you can place in total predictions for 0.05 BTC and get it refunded directly after placing it) Plz link to your comments in this thread and give us a Bitcoin Adress - so that everyone can see that we do the refund. Of Course you can keep all your winnings on fairlay.
We limit this promotion to 0.5 BTC.
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