Topic: FAIRLAY.COM - the future of reliable information. (Read 10471 times)

We recently saw some movement in the price of the block size limit debate.
https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/blockchain/all/?lt=1

Added to my website. I hope that OP is satisfied with thumbnail and description if not, PM me!

Update 21.02.2015
we have extended our sport section tremendously and we are now by far the biggest Bitcoin betting exchange with total liquidity of several 1,000 BTC in sports.

additional noteworthy:

• Betting exchange - bet against users, not against the house
• 0.00% fees on sport bets
• we have strong market makers that provide better odds than pinnacle with about the same liquidity
• no account needed
• API for market makers and other professionals or hackers: fairlay.com/api

read more here:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/fairlay-sports-betting-for-experts-highest-liquidity-provably-best-odds-673475

Of course you can!

By the way: we have new events on the latest Bitstamp events: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/bad-news/
When will Bitstamp allow Bitcoin withdrawals again?

Hi
Can I add this odd?
5.00 and 1.30?
Pls advise thanks

We are proud that we have now liquid markets with several hundert predictions on:
Politics: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/news/politics/
Bitcoin difficulty: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/difficulty/
and all kind of sports:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/sports/

Sorry, we can not do this. At Fairlay predictions are always only between user. If we would give back BTC to those who lost money with a late prediction we would have to take it away from others. They would not accept that and in some cases we simply can not do it because the Bitcoins are already send to an address we do not control.

E.g: https://www.fairlay.com/anonymous/1CYsmywVd6NpxBrJZG13uZioXVG1s1gsn7/

We as Fairlay only earn 2% on the lost bets from the winners as fees. We would agree to give back this 2% we take if someone would ask us - but I guess this does not really help - sorry.

Is there anything we can do to make it better?
We do have two kind of difficulty predictions: one is on a specific jump:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-33b/
(normally the next diff)

The others are more longterm and that is why they are on a certain date like the end of the year like this one:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bitcoin-difficulty-75b-by-the-end-of-the-year/

We agree that if it comes to the end of the long term predictions things can get confusing but we are not sure how to do it different?

It is better to say, "the next difficulty level" rather then a specific date because the difficulty might not change on a specific date.  It is not fair not to close "the september 15" prediction down since the difficulty level just happened on September 13.    It is not fair to the users and create confusion--unnecessary loss of money for nothing.

This is no different then asking people to predict the difficulty level for August 31st 2014.  The event already had happened so if you know what you are doing you just look up.  It is the one that does not know that is going to get hurt.

I think it is fair for you to cancel the bets placed after the most recent difficulty level which is September 13.

In theory the difficulty can change before the 15th of September. We agree to you that this will NOT happen, for sure.

However, normally we wait until the resolution date to resolve a event. But in this case we take the risk and resolve the event indeed earlier.

(in the VERY unlikely case that the outcome of the event will change we will pay the different outcome ourselves)

Why are you letting people bet on something that's already had happened?

Why would you let people guess difficulty level >30B on September 15?  This is impossible since the next difficulty level is going to be in 12 to 14 days and currently the difficulty level is 29,829,733,124, which is under 30B.

We recently have a lot of activity on our regular "next difficulty prediction"

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-31b/

bet against difficulty >31B at odds of 3.5. Note that from the current difficulty data odds should be more like 2. (50%/50%).

Some sources that predict the difficulty and their current prediction:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty: 31,109,256,240
https://cryptanalys.is/difficulty/bitcoin_btc.php: 29,611,949,922
http://www.vnbitcoin.org/bitcoincalculator.php: 29,804,000,000
http://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history: 30171493992

Thus all sites (in exception of bitcoinwisdom) predict a difficulty of <31B that would bring you 3.5 times your money back.

Today we added a new feature: you can now place a bet/prediction without an account.

We have a new interesting bet:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bitcoin-will-outperform-top-10-altcoins/

Some graphs our prediction market created so far:


https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/mtgox-will-find-50-000-more-btc


https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/mh370-plane-found-in-april


https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bitcoin-price-800


https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-13-5b


https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bitcoin-price-820


https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/brazil-does-not-win-the-world-cup-and-there-will-be-casualties-in-subsequent-riots


https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/every-difficulty-increase-in-2014-by-10

Great, thank you.

Oh - the game had more overtime than expected. Our bad - we will pay for it. Thus all wrong winners can keep there winnings and of course we will pay the correct winners as well.

Hi guys, you resolved this prediction incorrectly: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/greece-will-win-against-ivory-coast/
Greece won the game: http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/matches/round=255931/match=300186455/index.html

Sorry Nobitcoin - the offer is over but I guess we will do another one soon.

Now we have a couple of predictions on the auction of the silk road sized coins:
For example will the lowest price of a Block be < $450?
https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/price/

I'm sort of confused with your 0.5 btc offer.  5 bets at 0.01 = 0.05 so? Also is the offer still on?

We want more prediction on our Bitcoin and news related events: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/ and https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/news/
Thus we start a promotion today: If you place a prediction on a event and the prediction is matched fully and you write a short comment (on fairlay) why you placed this prediction (for example mentioning a statistic or news) then we refund you the prediction amount up to 0.01 Bitcoin per prediction and up to 5 prediction per user. (Thus you can place in total predictions for 0.05 BTC and get it refunded directly after placing it) Plz link to your comments in this thread and give us a Bitcoin Adress - so that everyone can see that we do the refund. Of Course you can keep all your winnings on fairlay.

We limit this promotion to 0.5 BTC.

We do now have a comment function - and a lot of new bets on the Bitcoin difficulty:

https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/

Yes - the outcome of this bet can be influenced by the betters but if everyone is aware of it we do not think that is a bad think in general - quite the opposite fact - it could be a new form of market for buying services. Someone can bet: My facebook page will NOT have x likes. Thus he gives an incentive for other to make it happen. Or imagine a bet: I bet that the next bitcoin-qt does NOT have a certain feature and I put 1 BTC on it. What I would do is, giving a bounty of 1 BTC for building this feature.

We put a comment to the bet that no one forgets the option of influencing the outcome:
https://www.fairlay.com/bet/registered/new/fairlay-10-000-facebook-likes/

Compare our blogpost:
http://blog.fairlay.com/2014/02/how-a-bet-made-someone-else-buy-us-4000-fake-facebook-likes/ 

We do the verification. To build up trust we will publish all of our past decisions and we always give a short reasoning for the decision: compare some of our latest resolved bets:

https://www.fairlay.com/bet/registered/new/mh370-plane-found-in-april/
https://www.fairlay.com/bet/registered/new/mtgox-will-find-50-000-more-btc/
https://www.fairlay.com/bet/registered/new/facebook-60/
https://www.fairlay.com/bet/registered/new/cl-bayern-wins-vs-real-madrid/

 

Put all your money on yes bet that they will surpass 2500 facebook likes, buy 2500 facebook likes from any site that offers it. profit?

Who verifies whether the events occurred or did not occur? Surely some of them will come down to technicalities and judgement calls. Really cool idea though...

Hey - we just started a couple of new events: we focus now on predicting the difficulty:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/

Also, we just made it possible to comments on bets and discuss them.

Thank you man,
Really BTC for me is the future and nobody can predict it. You can try fortune cookies or meet a jypsy women to see your future, otherwise you can just buy BTC 

Agreed - if you think Bitcoin will raise - buy. If you think it will fall - sell... (but better buy...) Betting with Bitcoin on the Bitcoin price is really not the best option.

However, from currently 15 events only 1 one is about the Bitcoin price - what would you prefer to predict on?

Hi,
Sorry, but i am little tired of all these predictions of bitcoin price nowadays. It is just becoming boring. Just an opinion. BTC fans before 2013 will understand.

BR,

Gondel

Hey - thanks again for the bet suggestion.

We had little volume on this bet (about .15 BTC - we need to get our side more known! However, I send you some coins even if the fee was way less)

just wanted to remind you that I´m still entitled to 80 % of the fees of the old facebook stock bet (I see there is already a new one).

username: jrq3n

Thank you in advance 

Looks great, will check it out later..

Hey 21pilot and fairlay,
This is the whole idea of what we started to build a short while ago: www.StockBlitz.com.
Nothing is ready yet, but we had just been approaching fairlay to see how to make this idea Much bigger.
CK
 

cool - https://www.fairlay.com/bet/registered/new/stock-market-predictions/

great that you will give it a try!

I have submitted my proposal via the form on fairlay (username: jrq3n).
Thank you already for sharing the fees with me.

I will think about additional ideas and then post here again 

Cool - we will do that. If you submit it via our form on the website then we can credit you the 80% fees when the bet is resolved.
We will try this stock-market bet - but we will begin with only one. So new ideas? Ukraine? Turkey/Twitter? Elections? E-Sports? Poker? Any concrete suggestions?

one additional remark in order to meet your requirement of "we must be able to clearly decide the outcome of the event - be precise in the description"

-> stock closing price / stock index price according to Google Finance*



* or another reputable website with stock price information

I´ll make a start.

stock market projections

e.g.
-> closing price of [INSERT RANDOM STOCK] on 11th april (it makes sense to use a friday as resolution date, because of no stock price movement on weekends) is higher/lower than [INSERT CURRENT STOCK PRICE]  $

To illustrate my idea you could offer the following prediction markets:

- closing price of Apple stock on 11th april is higher/lower than 530 $
- closing price of Deutsche Bank stock on 11th april is higher/lower than 44 $
...

Of course you are not able to offer a lot of stocks, but you could select a few really popular stocks (Apple, Google, Facebook).
In particular a Facebook stock prediction market is interesting in my opinion and I really think it is also a more sophisticated bet than your current
facebook related bets (likes on your facebook page  ).

Additionally you could apply my proposal to a whole stock index and offer prediction markets for the closing price of Dow Jones, DAX, Nasdaq.

Let me know what you think of my idea.

Besides from my proposal, here my general opinion of Fairlay:
I really like the idea of a prediction market and I also think you managed to develop a very professional website. Everything works very smoothly
and I love your plain site design.

well - we allow sport bets in general - and you can suggest them. But for this promotion we want something more interesting and new because sport bets are covered all over the internet.

No sport bet, why?
 
 

make a suggestion and earn 80% of the fees!

We are not very into esports so show us the links where we can prove the results - then we will do it!

nice site I really like, why don't you add some more like betting on e-games championship and so on =)

This is a very special offer we do only here in this thread.

If you have a good suggestion for a new bet: post it and get 80% of all fees we collect on this bet!

Only very few stings attached:

• no sport bet
• resolution date must be bevor 15. of April
• we must be able to clearly decide the outcome of the event - be precise in the description
• obv. we don't want duplicates

Post your suggestion here as a proof and earn some BTC...

The Beta is over - all winners got there price and we started the real fairlay!

Place for example a bet on wether S. Nakamoto will appear with a new post signed by him:
https://www.fairlay.com/bet/registered/new/message-from-satoshi-nakamoto/

thx! We try to improve it dayly!

Looks great! I'm already placing bets. Well designed website.

We added a new category: current affairs: with this bet:
Date for Ukrainian presidential elections announced to take place before end of April

https://www.fairlay.com/bet/registered/new/date-for-ukrainian-presidential-elections-announced-to-take-place-before-end-of-april/

Love the leaderboard, many thanks. 

Not yet on it, because lost kind of everything, but nearly there

Ok thanks for explaining that. Crystal clear now.

Sorry - if we did not made this clear.

Credits are worthless BUT: on March 2 the 21 users with the most credits will win in total 600mBTC. Thus the credits have an indirect value.
Details here:blog.fairlay.com/2014/02/fairlay-beta-promo/

EDIT: Thanks Nicolas

The winnings will still be credits, so suppose you win the bet and the odds on both were 1.5, you'll gain 75.000 credits, with a 2% fee on the net income, so 2% of 25.000 = 500, so after deduction of the fee your net income will be 24950 credits. So your total now is 50.000 + 24950 = 74950 credits.

You can bet again now and gain more credits or loose it all.

On the 2nd of March the 21 top betters will gain real btc.

I signed up and placed two bets with all 50,000 credits I was given. So if I end up winning, do the credits I receive become real and have value? Or are my winnings still just credits that hold no value?

sure, it is part of the game!

But if you want to do - better choose this one:

It is a bet wether a certain charity will reach a certain amount of BTC funds.
You can bet that it will happen - and make it happen.
Guaranteed winning a bet and doing something for charity!

https://fairlay.com/bet/registered/new/charity-songs-of-love-gets-21-btc/

It's easy to manipulate with Youtube and FB like bets. You can bet big and purchase a views or likes really cheap.

That's looking very nice , can't wait.

Seak peek on fairlay.com
Bet overview:

Betting form:

Thanks for the Betacoin hint. We will change it.


It does not sound very appealing to me to risk 199mBTC to win 1mBTC. What if someone else does the same? And: We have right no 1700 Signups. This means we give out 102 Million "FairlayCoins". It is more than possible that one user gets more than 2% of it. It think you don't get an unfair advantage by buying more coins. If you do (and you really don't have to!!!) you should do it manly just for fun.

betacoin is a "real" coin traded on cryptsy and 50000 betacoin are equivalent to 2 btc  
Pls call your coin "fairlaycoin" or whatelse, to avoid to confond users,
Also, you didn't think that with 199mBTC someone can buy 1990000 of you coins and be "pretty sure" to win the 200mBTC competition? I bet you did..

Still tinkering with the UI - but we start very soon!

We have decided to use "BetaCoins" Just some sort of credits. User will get an initial amount and can get more by refferals or by bitcoin purchases. This way we can at least maybe test some Bitcoin transaction without to much risk for anyone.
Does this sound fair to you?

I would just use an alt coin.

You could also just give users fake balances they can't withdraw if you're confident with your deposit withdraw system.

One important issue that made us come to the decision not using testnet-coins is that there is a lack of reliable faucets.
We would need one that could server 500-3000 user in a short period of time. 

The sad thing is that testnwt coins are supposed to be for testing, and it's the users fault not yours. Not using testnet is just wasting it.

Thanks moocoin. Yes, have have thought about it and we will not use testnet-coins.
Nur sure what we do instead - maybe we have only "credits" on our site.

We just ran the MooCoin beta tournament on TestNet and I would STRONGLY suggest against it.  Consider using an alt-coin for the test, instead.

Here's why:
1)  It's seriously just as easy to setup a Dogecoin client and run that
2)  Users get confused and think you're dealing in real bitcoins.  Especially those for whom English is not their native language
3)  Said users become infuriated when they realize that they can't withdraw the testNet coins to a mainNet wallet
4)  If you're really successful, you'll end up with thousands and thousands of testNet coins that probably came from the faucets, essentially draining the only two testNet faucets out there.

Trying to save you some heartache...
MooCoin

It is. A binary option can be cash-or-nothing or asset-or-nothing; betting in BTC on the price of BTC constitutes asset-or-nothing options. I just bring it up because I'm personally interested in seeing more options and there isn't much available, and it seems like it could be done within your platform.

But is it traded in the same currency as the objective?

But you are right... We will offer it and the market will find the numbers...

I contrived some numbers just to show that a situation was possible; in practice the market would have to find its own values. This type of bet is an assert-or-nothing binary put on the price of BTC (an asset-or-nothing binary call is also possible by betting that the price would be above $x). While it's an exotic type of option, I think the fact that it exists and is traded in traditional financial markets shows that as an instrument it is not fatally flawed, and there may be some demand for it.

Thanks for the example!

But there is still a problem. You mentioned it already - finding the counterparty. At normal bets a slightly different evaluation of the outcome chances leads to a bet that seems to both profitable. If Mr. Bear thinks the Tennis Player A will win with 49% chance and Mr. Bull thinks its 51% it makes sense for both to bet on odds of 2.

In your scenario Mr. Bear must be way more convinced that the event (Bitcoin will drop to $500 or below) will happen then the 20% that are implied by the odds of Mr. Bull.

So Mr. Bull must believe it will happen only in 20% or less of the time and Mr. Bear needs to believe it happens in more than 50% (thats not the exact number, but an estimate) of the cases. Only with this huge spread of expectation they will come to an agreement of a bet.
Or do I muss something?

The price=0 edge case is actually the only price to which you shouldn't bet on a drop at any odds; in general betting on a drop is comparable to a put option. Here's a more typical example than price=0:

- Say the price is $1000
- Mr. Bear believes price will fall to $500, but not lower than $200, and has no risk premium; he is willing to bet (say $10 worth of BTC) at 5:1 odds that the price will drop to $500 or lower.
- The price drops to $400.
- Mr. Bear has won (400/1000 * 5/1) * $10 = $20 worth of Bitcoin.

Of course, it's also necessary for the odds to be acceptable to at least one counterparty. This will be the case for any counterparty (assuming no risk premium) that believes the chance of the price dropping below $500 is less than 5:1.

Since there are little options when it comes to Bitcoin options markets as it stands, approximating an options market via a prediction market may be a viable option.

If you Google "hockey", a calendar of all the upcoming NHL games will pop up.

Yes - you are right. Betting with Bitcoin on the price of Bitcoin is pointless.
I guess we will write soon a blog artikel why. The easiest way to get the point is to look at the bet "The Price of Bitcoin will be 0 (or close to)." If you win that bet you will win Bitcoins but then they will be worth nothing. You never should bet on a price drop.

We think for altcoins it is a different story. If you strongly believe in the success of an altcoin you should buy or mine it but we think there is a use case of hedging.

But in the long run there is way more. Politics, Weather, basically any kind of uncertain information.

Done!
i also got a ref link: http://lnc.hr/h5ird , and i got an extra 10% for anyone signing under it  

I've signed up, I'm interested in doing some testing for you. In my opinion though, these 'bet on Bitcoin price' sites will die out soon and only real betting sites will continue. If people want to bet on the price of BTC they can just trade it... Sports betting/poker/casino games will go a long way with BTC though I'm almost sure.

Any concrete bet wishes?

temperature in new york? How much funding will ethereum receive? Next Difficulty?
Market Cap of Dogecoin?

Update 21.02.2015
we have extended our sport section tremendously and we are now by far the biggest Bitcoin betting exchange with total liquidity of several 1,000 BTC in sports.

additional noteworthy:

• Betting exchange - bet against users, not against the house
• 0.00% fees on sport bets
• we have strong market makers that provide better odds than pinnacle with about the same liquidity
• no account needed
• API for market makers and other professionals or hackers: fairlay.com/api

read more here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/fairlay-sports-betting-for-experts-highest-liquidity-provably-best-odds-673475



Update 31.10.2014
We are proud that we have now liquid markets with several hundert predictions on:
Politics: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/news/politics/
Bitcoin difficulty: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/difficulty/
and all kind of sports:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/soccer/

Update 01.10.2014
We invite market marker to use our new API! https://www.fairlay.com/api


Update 25.07.2014
Today we added a new feature: you can now place a bet/prediction without an account.

Update 23.06.2014

We have a couple of predictions on the auction of the silk road sized coins:
For example will the lowest price of a Block be < $450?
https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/price/


Update 05.05.2014

We want more prediction on our Bitcoin and news related events: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/ and https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/news/
Thus we start a promotion today: If you place a prediction on a event and the prediction is matched fully and you write a short comment (on fairlay) why you placed this prediction (for example mentioning a statistic or news) then we refund you the prediction amount up to 0.01 Bitcoin per prediction and up to 5 prediction per user. (Thus you can place in total predictions for 0.05 BTC and get it refunded directly after placing it) Plz link to your comments in this thread and give us a Bitcoin Adress - so that everyone can see that we do the refund. Of Course you can keep all your winnings on fairlay.

We limit this promotion to 0.5 BTC.


UPDATE 01.05.2014:

Fairlay - the future of reliable information.

Fairlay seeks to crowd-source information by providing a totally open prediction market. Functioning more like a conditional betting exchange, Fairlay not only allows users to bet but to see public confidence on various bitcoin and altcoin related events, as well as sports, and general news. By using Bitcoin to allow users to demonstrate where their confidence lies regarding specific event, Fairlay can aggregate the wisdom of the majority.
There is a huge potential in he possibilities of an open prediction market. Bitcoin could be the technological enabler for that. Fairlay sees a prediction market as a great tool to evaluate risks, hedge risks and aggregate information. Why do we have lots of different numbers for weather forecasts or as election predictions? Fairlay believes that a working prediction market could aggregate all data into the best available forecast. If someone has newer or better information he is able to bet against the current prediction, improving the forecast and get rewarded in the process.

About Fairlay
Fairlay was founded in 2013 and is a London-based prediction/betting market. It specializes in getting reliable information for everyone. For more information, please visit https://fairlay.com .
After a very successfull beta challenge, where Fairlay was able to acquire over 1000 users, tracked over 8000 bets and had over 50 events to bet on, Fairlay just announced betting with real Bitcoins.
Fairlay will focus on predicting the Bitcoin difficulty, compare: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/difficulty



UPDATE 21.03.2014:
We are online now and you can bet with Bitcoin!
Earn BTC for suggesting a bet: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.5825323[/b]

UPDATE
We are online now - register for free, get 50,000 credits - win your share of 600mBTC, compare: https://www.fairlay.com/highscore/[/b]




Hi - we are a Berlin/New York based developer team and after 6 month development we announce www.fairlay.com - the Bitcoin betting market!

We soon (4th of Feb.) Sorry will be mid Feb. start with an open Beta. You can bet with free testnetcoins Credits and the most successful will be rewarded with $500 in BTC.
Early sign-ups will start with 20% bonus.

First bets will be offered on BTC price, difficulty and altcoins.

We are happy to get feedback or suggestions for bets!


EDIT:

Seak peek on fairlay.com
Bet overview:

Betting form: