Topic: Fatal coronavirus return threatens (Read 233 times)

yes those "models' are one dimensional. and because they are not 100% full of detail its akin to an 'abstract view of the landscape' metaphor

but even just seeing that only a small percentage of people have even had it shows we are still at the calm before the storm
the r0 of corona (calculated by studying many many different places) shows that without isolation it would take over 6 months for full population spread.
exponential growth is small and slow at the start and huge at the end
if you go from the end and work backwards so 7billion /2.6 /2.6 you see alot of people getting it in a fortnight
if you go from the start and work forwards so 1 x 2.6 x 2.6 you see small amounts

in the first 2 months the numbers are low then more then more then more
its like to compare it to bitcoin pricing.
when in 2012 and bitcoin was $6. when it went up to $100 people thought that was huge experience of life changing amounts
but then in 2017 we had $20k which in comparison made people realise the $6-$100 event was small fry in comparison

and thats before even including if people are immune after getting it, because its just about the firth phase of 'abstracting' those getting it in the first place

No, what you've described is not a model, it's more or less a one dimensional look at the problem.

It's simply not accurate. To get it better, take some random samples of the % population that has antibodies to the Covid-19. Don't go with the presumption that you know or can guess that number from prior statistics.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-11/bay-area-coronavirus-deaths-signs-of-earlier-spread-california

As for the economy, the way that gets screwed is not by facts but by peoples' attitudes. If the people think everything is hopeless you have huge problems with the economy.

well if you think that everyone in china is suddenly immune due to the first wave and the crisis is over?, then the model your following is not a realistic model

yes what i say is not good news for the economy.. but this aint about the ecomony this is about human life
the economy is screwed whether now or in 2 years. so the only real thing to be concentrating on is the health impact and the methods of reducing risk/amount of death counts spiralling

yes models are not perfect utopia.. but then when is reality utopia

That's not a realistic model of virus spreading.

but where for instance wuhan alone has 11m population but not even 110k population with it.. means only 1% of population have had it and recovered.

which means this 'exponential' rate so far is just the start of a curve that could have gone 99x more before hitting the tip
or in short if they lockdown release every 2 months. it would take decades to get through the whole population with the modulation curve down not occuring for many years. definetly not in the first year

too many people think this 3week-3month isolation period is the end of it.
its not
after all why would London be making hospitals in april if they wanted the curb in april..
people dont realise the hospitals is for the next wave

its why they giving people on social security extra income per month, not just for 1-2 months.. but the whole year
its why people cant be made homeless for a year
its why they are asking ex hospital staff to come back to work/rehire. not for this first wave. but for the next one

UK had 4k ICU beds initially. and they hoping for 40K+ for second wave.
this would allow them to not  have to lockdown so fast and hopefully get 4-5 months of productivity/economy running

and atleast try and get a couple percent exposed in that time without hitting capacity.

one fatal flaw i see
if governments dont let the numbers settle so that health workers can take a break and have a few days off.. and just re-energise before opening up the populous to exposure they will be double exhausted in a few months

I would expect the simple exponential increase to be modulated by the %population that somehow already had immunity. Example, current rate of spread LA vs NY.

yes, I understand but we need to be careful because it will increase the mortality of the population which is very important for the state

I agree so please beware and stay home.

We don't know if the virus will come back or not, but I would suggest that the measures we are told are respected because it surely affects the rest of the virus among us, if we all listen and stay in our homes, the virus is more likely to go away sooner.

Yes, there is no vaccine it is still in the research process, self isolation protects people to get infected by not going anywhere among people

The vaccine builds immunity, if it doesn't work the immunity will most likely remain the same and nothing will change. I believe the vaccine will help more than take a break when tested enough.

I agree, we don't know the answer to that, of course they would like to know, but at the moment we have to bear the measures we have been told.

5 best case way to relax the restrictions

1. bring the curve of people getting it. down to manageable numbers
     - with a 2.6 spread rate. if the infected number at isolation relaxation was 1000. it would be 2600 in a week 6700 in fortnight
     - with a 2.6 spread rate. if the infected number at isolation relaxation was 50. it would be 130 in a week. 338 in fortnight
                                       - 878 week 3, 2284 at a month 5940 at week 6.. thus giving more time to prep for next wave

2. those who are unfit and wont fair well if they got it, should remain isolated

3. contact monitoring those who came near those infected. and isolating them quickly.
     - this can bring the infection rate down to 1.3 or even below 1 compared to 2.6 without any tracing/isolation..
     - depending how fast they can trace and isolate people before they themselves pass it on
     - if they can get 50 initial infected contact traced. where only pass it to say 1.3. it wil be 20 weeks before 6k cases
     - faster they can isolate to bring it below 1. the better.

4. dont allow regular flights/border crossing with countries which still have many cases spreading in the wild

5. ramp up ICU be resources and capacity.

these things can be combined to get to hopefully a point of not needing to jump into another lockdown for 6 months+. or without doing it, lockdown again within just weeks

those countries probably fully understand that risk but they also think that if they continue to prolong the lockdown their economy will be damaged. it is a dilemma most country leaders have in this time crisis.
Our country (Philippines) is determined to flatten the curve of the infected people and decided to prolong the ECQ(enhanced community quarantine) but the government fund is running out and if the virus continues to worsen our gov't is planning to sell gov't assets as a last resort in order to maintain the ECQ for as long as possible until the high rate of people getting infected lowers or stopped but it will damage our economy.

It is what we need to do to fight against the epidemic, which hopefully it can control or prevent the virus spreads among the people. Stay home is one of the ways not to spreads the virus while we can ask help to the doctor or hospital if something wrong happens with us so they can give the first aid.

Always to clean our hand after hold something or do something, you should concern with your healthy, consume healthy food and fruits to have immune over your body. With doing that, we can prevent the virus get into our body.

Lockdowns have been essential for containing the spread of coronavirus, but they are causing huge disruption, and distress, to lives around the world.
There are big decisions for governments to make - when to act, which restrictions to lift, how to contain the virus instead and how to balance saving lives today with long-term damage to society.

I would advise not listening and taking advice from this guy. There are several more variables involved which are being measured and studied, one important one is the pre existing fraction of people who somehow had the virus.

For example, look at the difference between contagion NY/California. There is a huge difference. When we know why, then we know enough to talk about when and where to intelligently restrict movement.

there is no vaccine
self isolation does not cause immunity
the amount of people that didnt isolate and instead mingled with other people to get it is like under 1%

the other 99% is yet to come
expect many many waves of lockdown release, and lockdown enforcing

Maybe vaccinated people who are susceptible to the SARS2 Coronavirus are at risk for not maintaining immunity and getting infected again?

The WHO is owned in significant part by Bill Gates and it is a fair guess that Mr. Gates had a lot to do with the installation of Mr. Tedros Adhanom with whom he'd worked for Ethiopian operations.  This is of note because without the threat of a 'return' or '2nd wave' of SARS-cov-2, there is no reason for a mandatory vaccine.  Vaccines are important to Mr. Gates (of Hell) because by his own admission he wants them to help reduce future world population.

The reason why I don't say Dr. Tedros is because the man does not hold a medical degree which is probably a surprise to some people.  But let's meet the guy:

  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5yD3o6_QGJId

I've heard somewhere that there is such widespread digust with the WHO's corruption and performance that there is a petition to remove Tedros, and it has something like 750,000 sigs already.  I would note that I know of people who report to quite working with WHO a while ago due to the gross corruption.