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Topic: [FCT] FACTOM - HOW FACTOIDS WORK - PRICE SPECULATION - page 2. (Read 12599 times)

sr. member
Activity: 385
Merit: 250
The wallet they have now isn't great apparently, but they'll be integrated into the Exodus.io wallet around the time of the M2 release ... so hopefully within the next days/weeks.
legendary
Activity: 3010
Merit: 1460
This looks like it is the 2nd best performer after XMR. I regret selling some of it. Now I am thinking of holding this for the very long term which now brings me to the question. How do you store your FCT? What is a good wallet to use. Hopefully a wallet that does not download the whole blockchain.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 504
Well blazin, you sold me.  I just entered into a substantial position on Factom that I hope to hold for at least 6 to 12 months.
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
M2 should be close. Very close.

DLT Financial & London FinTech Startup Tramonex Releases Global Crypto-Currency Financial Index “DLT10”:

https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2016/09/89935-dlt-financial-london-fintech-startup-tramonex-releases-global-crypto-currency-financial-index-dlt10/


"On Thursday, DLT Financial and London-based fintech company Tramonex, announced the launch of DLT10, a crypto-currency financial index. The companies stated the index was designed to track the performance of major digital currencies that run on public blockchains and unlocks information and access to the 10 most relevant cryptocurrencies through a corresponding tracker fund.

The 10 currencies listed on the DLT10 Index are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Stellar, Litecoin, Dogecoin, MadeSafeCoin, NameCoin, Factom and NXT. DLT Financial stated it will be launching a matching tracker fund within the next few weeks, which will provide businesses and individuals access to a securitized method for investing."


Factom, Intrinio partner to bring US stock market data to blockchain

http://www.econotimes.com/Factom-Intrinio-partner-to-bring-US-stock-market-data-to-blockchain-266673

“Every 15 minutes the pricing data for the 3,000 most valuable US stocks are now being published into the Factom blockchain”, Factom said in an online post. “This is an exciting new development for the blockchain technology space as it will enable a whole new generation of fintech applications to be developed”.
member
Activity: 106
Merit: 10
Only a fool worries over what he can’t control.
as off today 5th Sept 2016, the factom block since 2016-08-16 10:40:00 is still not anchored into the bitcoin block chain. More than 3000 blocks are still not anchored into blockchain.
1 week delay is acceptable but 2-3 weeks for anchoring to bitcoin blockchain. I think it is too long. What do you think? Is this normal.

http://explorer.factom.org/dblock/d36f4f5c4e7030c0f14b49eebb0c4134796ab42762b23bf413824ff8f9b8f8b5

I'm not sure where you got the idea the last 3000 blocks aren't anchored, do you have any proof of that? If you are meaning that every block since the 5th Sep hasn't been anchored then that is wrong. There isnt meant to be any delay, certainly not on the scale of weeks.

10 mins ago:
http://explorer.factom.org/dblock/120601e389eb2e4d611c5a522f68e71884feda3f5542f4d0641e3cace7170200

As for this particular block you have linked, I have no idea why. Perhaps this question is best raised in the main thread.

sr. member
Activity: 385
Merit: 250
XMR went from $25M to close to roughly $60M market cap on a DNM announcement.
FCT has Department of Homeland Security and a Wall Street firm amongst their clients.

There's a mismatch with the demographic of crypto here and many investors put their idealism before money. The US government and Wall Street are easily in the top 5 of what most crypto people despise and for this reason it'll take some time to reach price discovery. The kind of revenue US government and Wall street can generate stomps any shady DNM.

+1
jr. member
Activity: 34
Merit: 2
as off today 5th Sept 2016, the factom block since 2016-08-16 10:40:00 is still not anchored into the bitcoin block chain. More than 3000 blocks are still not anchored into blockchain.
1 week delay is acceptable but 2-3 weeks for anchoring to bitcoin blockchain. I think it is too long. What do you think? Is this normal.

http://explorer.factom.org/dblock/d36f4f5c4e7030c0f14b49eebb0c4134796ab42762b23bf413824ff8f9b8f8b5
legendary
Activity: 1960
Merit: 1128
@matt608. That is just pure speculation with made up funny numbers. It will be hard to take that seriously. But let us see and hope I am wrong. Cheesy

It is speculation, yes. Because nobody can know what will happen in future. But it's not just about funny numbers out of thin air.

Since the price of Factoids will be highly dependent on the demand of Entry Credits it is possible to calculate prices for different demand-scenarios. The question is: Is a billion entries per day unrealistic? No. The Factom-team is known to not hype. They are also known for being very correct. If two members of the team say, with the intention to explain how much data Factom can process, that there are single potential customers who ask if Factom could handle 1 billion entries per day - it's pretty safe to say: They don't lie.

And Factom won't be about one or two or five customers. It will be about hundreds and thousands and for a lot of different use cases nobody, not even the team, can foresee.

My perspective is: If there won't be a disastrous event, it's just a question of time that Factom will handle billions of entries. It is rational to expect that because all what has to happen is that they move on the way they did since they've started it.

How likely is a "disastrous event"? What I like to see is that they act carefully and step by step. They say themselves that they treat the software as financial software, they don't go from 0 to 100 in a moment but decentralize it over time, they test everything until it's as perfect as it can be.

The only black-swan-event I can think of is that there is an unknown vulnerability in blockchains in general. But if something like that should happen Bitcoin and the whole market would be done.
legendary
Activity: 3010
Merit: 1460
@matt608. That is just pure speculation with made up funny numbers. It will be hard to take that seriously. But let us see and hope I am wrong. Cheesy
hero member
Activity: 882
Merit: 1000
Here is an interesting forecast, from here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.16092497

Question: What's the upside potential of Factom?

So let's speculate 1 billion entries per month...

i = monthly inflation, 73k FCT
r = FCT to EC conversion rate, $0.001
e = new entries needed per month, 1 billion

(e*r)/i = $13.70 per Factoid...

After M3, at 1 billion new entries per month, factoids need to be priced at least at $13.70 to prevent deflation. Of course people speculating on future use will hodl and add to deflationary pressure.

The main-factor will be the demand of Entry Credits. And besides an increasing attention that already happens and will continue, the market will react on all signs for a high demand in the future. And there are already some indications for that. More between the line, but still... David Johnston said in the interview that potential customers ask if Factom could handle   a billion entries per day. And his intention was to explain Factom. I doubt that his intention was to hype the market, otherwise he would use a megaphone. But why should they (potential Customers) ask that?

At a billion per day instead of per month, we get 30 * $ 13.70 = $411.00 per Factoid...

Think that's unrealistic?  Meet The CAT.  

https://www.sec.gov/news/statement/stein-statement-open-meeting-cat-042716.html

http://www.pwc.com/us/en/financial-services/regulatory-services/publications/assets/sec-consolidated-audit-trail-2016.pdf

http://www.debevoise.com/~/media/files/insights/publications/2016/05/20160517b_the_sec_propose_%20the_cat_plan_but_at_what_cost.pdf

"The CAT Plan may become the most robust and complicated financial database in the world."

"CAT Reporters will be burdened for at least two-and-a-half years with both their existing $1.6 billion annual reporting costs and the $1.7 billion annual costs of reporting to the CAT, according to initial estimates by the SEC. The CAT will also carry a one-time implementation cost estimated at $2.4 billion."

SEC Consolidated Audit Trail (CAT) needs Factom.

CAT+Factom = $ Huh per Factom...

full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
XMR went from $25M to close to roughly $60M market cap on a DNM announcement.
FCT has Department of Homeland Security and a Wall Street firm amongst their clients.

There's a mismatch with the demographic of crypto here and many investors put their idealism before money. The US government and Wall Street are easily in the top 5 of what most crypto people despise and for this reason it'll take some time to reach price discovery. The kind of revenue US government and Wall street can generate stomps any shady DNM.
legendary
Activity: 3010
Merit: 1460
All the good news about Factom keep coming and coming. Now I regret not buying more when it was hovering just below 40k satoshis. The trend looks like it will continue for months.
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
Factom Inc. and Intrinio are putting Wall Street on the Factom blockchain https://www.factom.com/intrinio-factom-announce-collaboration/
legendary
Activity: 3010
Merit: 1460
Yes. The interest is continuing right now. Is there any news about this or is this still connected to the partnership with DataYes?
sr. member
Activity: 385
Merit: 250
FCT going through a nice rise ...
sr. member
Activity: 385
Merit: 250
Heads up that there's now a FCT trading subreddit: www.reddit.com/r/fctrader

Note only only "t" in name ...
sr. member
Activity: 385
Merit: 250
Thoughts on where the FCT price will be post-M2?
sr. member
Activity: 385
Merit: 250
Ok I get the idea of getting cheap coins. But why ensure their shorts? You mean to say there are people who still go short in FCT? That is like betting against it. If they manipulate it to go down at the same time then surely their bet will win. What do you think?

....

But the hardest part in all this is the psychological/emotional part—not getting caught up and demoralized by temporary price drops, but instead to see them as opportunities to "shadow" a whale's strategy. Easier said than done, especially if you have significant money on the line, but to quote Buffett: "be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." When the price drops, you can either see it as an indication of the quality of the crypto, or as a temporary buying opportunity. The better you understand Factom and its potential, I believe, the more you'll see it as the latter.



Yes. I am a victim of this too. I usually check the price almost every hour even every minute when I am home and I always keep thinking if is still worth holding the coin. Some people trading is simple but I have realized it is really not. It will take me some time before I get used to the emotions.

Yep, I've been there. It can be exhausting and demoralizing at times. My advice, fwiw, is:

—As a general rule in crypto: never invest more than you can afford to lose.
—It's difficult, but if you can commit to only looking at charts at a 2-week or 1-month zoom, it can really help keep your focus on the bigger picture. Remember that daily price fluctuations have nothing to do with the quality or potential of the tech, but instead with the whims of the market, price manipulation, the effects of shorters, etc.
—If you buy at 1x, and the next day the price is 0.8x, logic would suggest that one should buy more, given that the tech hasn't changed, but the coin is now selling at a discount. But this is logic, and logic isn't the hard part ... However this very short analysis can be a counterbalance to the psychological/emotional strain of price movements.
—When it doubt: research. This is IMO the most important. The more you know about a crypto, the more secure you'll be in your decision of whether or not to hold. You may learn something that causes you to reconsider your allocation or strategy, and if so, that is what you should base your investment decisions on. I used to check the charts very regularly myself, but the more I personally learned about Factom, the less concerned I became with market vicissitudes. Yes, I often wish I bought at 0.8x instead of 1x the day before, but ... the important thing is to get in (if that's what you choose) at the right order of magnitude, not at a percentage discount to a previous price.
—If you believe whales are manipulating the market, and if you believe a lot of what we've been seing lately is large players trying to shake out weak hands, then ... if you sell, they win. Something to think about ...  Smiley
—This isn't advice to continue to hold FCT, much less to add to your holdings. The most important point IMO is just to be as informed as possible, to focus on a bigger-picture view when available (i.e. for the charts: when it doubt, zoom out), and to avoid playing into a whale's hands.
legendary
Activity: 3010
Merit: 1460
Ok I get the idea of getting cheap coins. But why ensure their shorts? You mean to say there are people who still go short in FCT? That is like betting against it. If they manipulate it to go down at the same time then surely their bet will win. What do you think?

....

But the hardest part in all this is the psychological/emotional part—not getting caught up and demoralized by temporary price drops, but instead to see them as opportunities to "shadow" a whale's strategy. Easier said than done, especially if you have significant money on the line, but to quote Buffett: "be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." When the price drops, you can either see it as an indication of the quality of the crypto, or as a temporary buying opportunity. The better you understand Factom and its potential, I believe, the more you'll see it as the latter.



Yes. I am a victim of this too. I usually check the price almost every hour even every minute when I am home and I always keep thinking if is still worth holding the coin. Some people trading is simple but I have realized it is really not. It will take me some time before I get used to the emotions.
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1000
Ok I get the idea of getting cheap coins. But why ensure their shorts? You mean to say there are people who still go short in FCT? That is like betting against it. If they manipulate it to go down at the same time then surely their bet will win. What do you think?
Yeah, I personally think it's mostly the other possibility—whales suppressing the price to accumulate cheaper coins....
This is my gut feeling too, and I am a lamprey.  Psychologically, not easy right now.  Thanks for an insightful post.
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