Fed concerns about US economy are a reminder that economy may never be the same

Yatsan

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Quote from: Wexnident on May 25, 2020, 04:08:11 AM

I'm pretty sure that even now, the economy of the US isn't the same already. Let's not even mention the effects oof Covid, even before it happened, the US economy was already showing signs of destroying itself. The Covid effects only served to hasten it imo. Let's not even mention how Trump's movements are to say the least, very inefficient. The world is changing in a fast pace right now since this is the time where you could see business come and go quickly. If we take into account the economy of the US, you could possibly see a huge impact on the current business momentum of a lot of small businesses, even big companies may be hit quite largely.

This is a test on how developed the economy of America is, few years ago, they keep on telling that the economy of America is a vague subject for a downfall coz it is developed but what that "developed" really means? coz if you compare America's economy with other poor nations we can totally say that it is more developed but I hope they don't put other's economic status as the basis on their so called "developed" coz the pandemic is unmasking it right now.

Quote from: Wexnident on May 25, 2020, 04:08:11 AM

Quote from: bits4books on May 23, 2020, 08:03:04 AM

Even if 2008 comes again - the way out of it will be as brilliant as it was in those days. A huge problem of the market is a bubble system of derivatives and other synthetics that already exceeds the money supply a couple of times. I think that if there wiil be a "new 2008" it is more good than bad. It's time to dump this ballast and money out of the air that too adventurous but not very smart guys are trying (and some manage) to get out of the air.

That's already looking at it from an optimistic side. imo, even if it had the same similar effect as 2008, the negative effects it could still bring would most probably be huge.

That is what most likely to happen to America right now, the America is on verge of the recession and if that happens China will take most of its world status.

Wexnident

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I'm pretty sure that even now, the economy of the US isn't the same already. Let's not even mention the effects oof Covid, even before it happened, the US economy was already showing signs of destroying itself. The Covid effects only served to hasten it imo. Let's not even mention how Trump's movements are to say the least, very inefficient. The world is changing in a fast pace right now since this is the time where you could see business come and go quickly. If we take into account the economy of the US, you could possibly see a huge impact on the current business momentum of a lot of small businesses, even big companies may be hit quite largely.

Quote from: bits4books on May 23, 2020, 08:03:04 AM

Even if 2008 comes again - the way out of it will be as brilliant as it was in those days. A huge problem of the market is a bubble system of derivatives and other synthetics that already exceeds the money supply a couple of times. I think that if there wiil be a "new 2008" it is more good than bad. It's time to dump this ballast and money out of the air that too adventurous but not very smart guys are trying (and some manage) to get out of the air.

That's already looking at it from an optimistic side. imo, even if it had the same similar effect as 2008, the negative effects it could still bring would most probably be huge.

yoshka

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The economy may never be the same, because right now there are events that the average person does not even suspect. The economy and our future depend on the outcome of these events.

exstasie

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Quote from: bits4books on May 24, 2020, 02:06:40 AM

Quote from: exstasie on May 23, 2020, 06:25:34 PM

Quote from: bits4books on May 23, 2020, 08:03:04 AM

Even if 2008 comes again - the way out of it will be as brilliant as it was in those days.

2008 is nothing. I think that's partly what all this optimism in the market is all about. The market believes 2008 is the worst case scenario, so investors are already scrambling to position themselves for the recovery.

But what if this time is different? What if this is 1929, not 2008? Are you prepared for the economic pain that comes along with a large scale debt deflation collapse? It would affect every corner of the economy. Corporate debt defaults, mortgage (foreclosure) and rent (eviction) defaults, bank failures. This would kill liquidity to small businesses and also tax revenues, social services.

In that scenario, I don't know what the prognosis is for BTC or gold. In the case of deflation/depression, they could perform poorly for some time in a liquidity shock since globally, debtors need USD to service their debts. It may be difficult to hedge, and virtually everybody in all markets may come out losers.

And maybe it's not so bad? So many years of continuous growth-did anyone think that these years will remain "unpunished"? The higher humanity soars the more painfully it falls but each time it rises. And this time is certainly no exception

Just a comment on the attitude of "even if 2008 comes again." 2008 was just a 1-2 year recession. Annual average unemployment in the US was 5.8% that year. The CBO is projecting double that in 2020-2021, and I think a lot of metrics are now showing those projections to be optimistic. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335

So it seems we should anticipate something significantly worse than 2008, maybe even significantly worse than a recession. Most of us have no idea what a world with 25% unemployment looks like. That was the Great Depression.

The people I have known who lived through the 30s were very scarred by it. I really hope that's not what it comes to. A multi-generational bubble popping now? Fuck, that's a scary proposition. It's hard to imagine the scope of suffering and death that would cause. We're the guinea pigs in a test of Malthusian theory!

bits4books

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Quote from: exstasie on May 23, 2020, 06:25:34 PM

Quote from: bits4books on May 23, 2020, 08:03:04 AM

Even if 2008 comes again - the way out of it will be as brilliant as it was in those days. A huge problem of the market is a bubble system of derivatives and other synthetics that already exceeds the money supply a couple of times. I think that if there wiil be a "new 2008" it is more good than bad. It's time to dump this ballast and money out of the air that too adventurous but not very smart guys are trying (and some manage) to get out of the air.

2008 is nothing. I think that's partly what all this optimism in the market is all about. The market believes 2008 is the worst case scenario, so investors are already scrambling to position themselves for the recovery.

But what if this time is different? What if this is 1929, not 2008? Are you prepared for the economic pain that comes along with a large scale debt deflation collapse? It would affect every corner of the economy. Corporate debt defaults, mortgage (foreclosure) and rent (eviction) defaults, bank failures. This would kill liquidity to small businesses and also tax revenues, social services.

In that scenario, I don't know what the prognosis is for BTC or gold. In the case of deflation/depression, they could perform poorly for some time in a liquidity shock since globally, debtors need USD to service their debts. It may be difficult to hedge, and virtually everybody in all markets may come out losers.

And maybe it's not so bad? So many years of continuous growth-did anyone think that these years will remain "unpunished"? The higher humanity soars the more painfully it falls but each time it rises. And this time is certainly no exception

abuya55

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Dark days are already here. The economy needs to be reformed a lot, so it isn't so bad that the economy won't be the same.

Latviand

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Quote from: Sanugarid on May 21, 2020, 02:02:46 PM

The economy of USA is not looking good in the long run especially now that the vaccine will not be available until next year. In addition, USA is the new epicenter of this pandemic which has a total of 1.6 million confirmed cases. Even their economic structure is highly developed, world's largest economy and net wealth they will crumble sustaining their citizens for a long time, now that the population is USA is huge. What's worst is the unemployment rate in the USA, last time I checked around March there was already 30 million unemployed people in the USA, and these workers will have to file their job benefits. Now the question is how would they sustain this all??

We all know that every country affected is really having a hard time to recover from the damages that this pandemic brought to us. Most especially those people who are in a third world country that don't have enough budget to sustain the lives of its people. US is a big country and we all know that their economy is experiencing crash, especially the stock market.

We are all unprepared that there is a virus that existing to kill human easily. Chinese should warned us immediately so that we can prepare but the thing is they don't do it like that. They wait for the virus to spread first before they can alert us about that. In contrast with the US economy, China has a stable stock market because many of our goods came from them.

MCobian

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It is true that the US economy is in ruins, the pandemic corona is making the number of unemployed in America continue to grow.
But I am sure President Donald Trump will not stand still seeing the condition of the American economy is getting worse. Donald Trump
is a reliable businessman, who is accustomed to dealing with various kinds of problem conditions in the economic sector. Moreover,
America is one of the strongest countries in the world, so I'm sure America can rise from adversity.

conhela

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Quote from: Juggy777 on May 21, 2020, 05:19:11 AM

In it’s last meeting held on April 28th Fed officials unanimously agreed that US economy will never be the same if a second wave of covid19 virus attack took place, and they also pledged to do all they can to keep the economy stable during such uncertain times.

Furthermore what worries me is the massive wave of unemployment that the Fed believes will come if things don’t get better soon, and if the unemployment wave strikes US now then in my personal opinion US citizens will witness a repeat of the dark days they saw in 2008.

What do you’ll think of Fed’s concern?, and how many of you’ll believe that we will witness those dark days of 2008 again?.

Sources:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/20/business/coronavirus-economy-stock-market.html#link-26af4971

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007–08

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/a-guide-to-the-financial-crisis--10-years-later/2018/09/10/114b76ba-af10-11e8-a20b-5f4f84429666_story.html

https://www.c[Suspicious link removed]m/2020/05/19/unemployment-today-vs-the-great-depression-how-do-the-eras-compare.html

But the US unemlployment rate is already at an historical high... I'm not from the US but I can't imagine it going any good if unemployment keeps going up. I'd wage it'd be a worse 2008. Let's see what other bitcoin-like tech surfaces out of the brilliant minds that will inevitably be affected by this.

exstasie

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Quote from: bits4books on May 23, 2020, 08:03:04 AM

Even if 2008 comes again - the way out of it will be as brilliant as it was in those days. A huge problem of the market is a bubble system of derivatives and other synthetics that already exceeds the money supply a couple of times. I think that if there wiil be a "new 2008" it is more good than bad. It's time to dump this ballast and money out of the air that too adventurous but not very smart guys are trying (and some manage) to get out of the air.

2008 is nothing. I think that's partly what all this optimism in the market is all about. The market believes 2008 is the worst case scenario, so investors are already scrambling to position themselves for the recovery.

But what if this time is different? What if this is 1929, not 2008? Are you prepared for the economic pain that comes along with a large scale debt deflation collapse? It would affect every corner of the economy. Corporate debt defaults, mortgage (foreclosure) and rent (eviction) defaults, bank failures. This would kill liquidity to small businesses and also tax revenues, social services.

In that scenario, I don't know what the prognosis is for BTC or gold. In the case of deflation/depression, they could perform poorly for some time in a liquidity shock since globally, debtors need USD to service their debts. It may be difficult to hedge, and virtually everybody in all markets may come out losers.

bits4books

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Even if 2008 comes again - the way out of it will be as brilliant as it was in those days. A huge problem of the market is a bubble system of derivatives and other synthetics that already exceeds the money supply a couple of times. I think that if there wiil be a "new 2008" it is more good than bad. It's time to dump this ballast and money out of the air that too adventurous but not very smart guys are trying (and some manage) to get out of the air.

drlukacs

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Quote from: davis196 on May 21, 2020, 07:20:21 AM

There's no doubt that the US economy will witness the dark days of 2008.The unemployment rates are at historical peak and the stimulus plan won't help that much.However,many economists think that the crisis will be more of a V-shaped or U-shaped line,rather than a L-shaped long term depression.
The statements that "the economy will never be the same" are just some over-dramatic clickbait.I'm sure that the US economy will recover after several months.
The possibility of a second wave of COVID-19 still remains,but I don't think it will happen.

No need for the 2nd wave of COVID - 19 but the US economy is still suffering greatly. they must constantly import medical devices to treat people and the debt will be higher and higher. The reason for the stock market recovery in the US is because people are fomo about the future of the market. the whales will constantly manipulate people's psychology and once the price has reached a high level they will kick down again. I never thought America would recover quickly. they will have 1-2 years in the recession.

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Quote from: bitgolden on May 22, 2020, 03:34:33 PM

Honestly, all nations will eventually have so much debt that the crisis will no longer will be crisis according to fact that I just made all of this up. I mean looking at nations there are only few of them who do not make a debt, I do not get the idea of every single nation owing money.

Maybe there should be some sort of system where everyone who owns money to someone eventually pays with others debts to them and we will get it very very low thanks to it. Like let's say Japan owes money to Germany and Germany owes to France, instead of that, Japan will owe to France straight up. Those kinds of systems already in place but unfortunately not used or adopted widely because nations like to be owed money and not care about owing money, it creates a fake power to them.

Yes. When GDP drops 10% that means that debt/GDP automatically increase 10%. So for country that is healthy today with 60% dept of their GDP, they will automatically have 66% and then added debt that will happen because of lower income (economy lock down) and increased spending (medical and to boost economy). And we will get 80-90% and then second wave hit us. With second wave most healthy countries will become debt problematic. The ones with 100% debt of their GDP will become pretty much at the dead end.

bitgolden

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Honestly, all nations will eventually have so much debt that the crisis will no longer will be crisis according to fact that I just made all of this up. I mean looking at nations there are only few of them who do not make a debt, I do not get the idea of every single nation owing money.

Maybe there should be some sort of system where everyone who owns money to someone eventually pays with others debts to them and we will get it very very low thanks to it. Like let's say Japan owes money to Germany and Germany owes to France, instead of that, Japan will owe to France straight up. Those kinds of systems already in place but unfortunately not used or adopted widely because nations like to be owed money and not care about owing money, it creates a fake power to them.

Febo

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Quote from: Juggy777 on May 21, 2020, 05:19:11 AM

In it’s last meeting held on April 28th Fed officials unanimously agreed that US economy will never be the same if a second wave of covid19 virus attack took place, and they also pledged to do all they can to keep the economy stable during such uncertain times.

Bigger problem I see is that USA might not get a second wave since first wave will never go away. You need to beat the first wave first to be afraid of the second wave. We will see huge GDP drops in most of countries in Q2 and also latter.

TheGreatPython

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I am not the type of person that likes to believe that negative things will happen, even when they do happen I still find a way to stay positive. We shouldn't be expecting sug crisis to take place, rather we should all be working hard and making sure that things are the way we want them to be. Yes, a lot of things have changed as of recent and lots of people are losing their jobs, but that doesn't mean all hopes are gone.

All these things that are happening are just going to be temporary, but as time goes on things will get better. That's the reason why I always tell people to have side income rather than depending on only one income stream. People who is having multiple means of income streams definitely wouldn't worry much about this. I guess most people here who believe into futures of bitcoins must be holding enough bitcoins to withstand against any hard times

.

gentlemand

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Quote from: exstasie on May 22, 2020, 06:42:41 AM

What do you think, are we going to see countries go the way of Japan, with perpetually ballooning public debt? Or will the tax hike and austerity route be more popular? Tax hikes and austerity would have a crippling effect on recovery.

I'm pretty sure the British government have stated that austerity has been ruled out. We've had ten years of it already and it hasn't really cheered anyone up. There is talk of tax hikes, but more the levelling up of existing inequalities such as self employed people paying less than the employed. No doubt that may change.

Many politicians are urging no more burden on the public so perhaps they're going to concentrate on back room fiddling.

As you say it's the potential of a second wave that's the decider. I could see things moving on adequately enough with this one wallop. If it proves to be only the opening round then there are going to be many more alarming choices to make and a lot of unprecedented territory will be crossed.

exstasie

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Quote from: gentlemand on May 22, 2020, 04:37:02 AM

And even if the virus is no more than a bad memory before the end of this year every economy is going to have a huuuuge bill that otherwise wouldn't have existed. It's going to be trillions of dollars worldwide. How they choose to address that is going to have effect for a long time to come.

What do you think, are we going to see countries go the way of Japan, with perpetually ballooning public debt? Or will the tax hike and austerity route be more popular? Tax hikes and austerity would have a crippling effect on recovery.

My sense of American politics is Republicans really want to rein in spending, and they control the Senate. They are holding out hope for a V-shaped recovery, or at worst one that can be sustained mostly by Fed intervention and not fiscal spending.

In my view, a lot comes down to whether there is a bad second wave of the corona virus and subsequent lockdowns. That could lead to a watershed moment where all caution about public spending is thrown to the wind.

gentlemand

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Quote from: mu_enrico on May 22, 2020, 04:15:16 AM

It will If there is no vaccine or herd immunity yet, but to say "never be the same" is an exaggeration. In the next decade, the economy will be higher than ever, as always.
Technology will progress, and humans will have a better way of trade. Can I hear Amen?

Let's wait and see.

Even if it makes a full recovery and starts to boom again in a few years many things will have permanently changed. A lot of companies that have been part of the landscape since forever will have gone.

And even if the virus is no more than a bad memory before the end of this year every economy is going to have a huuuuge bill that otherwise wouldn't have existed. It's going to be trillions of dollars worldwide. How they choose to address that is going to have effect for a long time to come.

mu_enrico

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Quote from: Juggy777 on May 21, 2020, 05:19:11 AM

if a second wave of covid19 virus attack took place

It will If there is no vaccine or herd immunity yet, but to say "never be the same" is an exaggeration. In the next decade, the economy will be higher than ever, as always.
Technology will progress, and humans will have a better way of trade. Can I hear Amen?

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