Topic: Few days to 4th Bitcoin Halving (Read 370 times)

Well here we are, drop to 50k bitcoin, 3 to 4 months later than expected.

Where others see panic I see oppertunity =D

Just like you I've also witnessed previous halving and this one is different as it reaches ATH first before the halving maybe because of the ETFs approval but if we are going to based on previous statistics after halving it would take around 60 to 200 days before a fully bull run, my thought is since the bull run already started before halving, we may witness a more bullish market that would rocket the Bitcoin's price. This is just only my assumption and we all know cryptocurrencies, we really can't predict them.

So sell out your bitcoins before it's too late, don't keep holding on to bitcoins when it disappoints you. Not only you but also those who are disappointed just because bitcoin is not increasing in price and those who are thinking like you that bitcoin will drop to $50k in the next 2 weeks should sell all their bitcoins. I will be happy if you sell all your bitcoins because this is a good sign for the market because the market does not need weak hands, and for the market to grow we need to eliminate weak hands, speculators.

True, if we look at the market performance some time ago the rally was quite strong where Bitcoin was able to reach ATH (All-Time High) a month before half of this was after the presence and testing of ETFs so that it was able to trigger further price increases, but we cannot be sure that it will work 100% perfectly and on the other hand indeed everyone has hope that the post-halving will give a new color in the investment journey, especially BTC but I have The view is that halving can trigger a bullish period and its sustainability will also depend on changes in broader market dynamics, namely demand.

I write this 3 days before halving...

So far it has been disappointing... no big rallies/bull runs yet.

Possible causes:

1. People's transactions to transfer/sell bitcoin after all time high still processing/back log (profit taking, congestion on btc blockchain/limited blockspace).

2. Major Exchanges pulling out of countries due to laws.

3. Tether/usdt pulling out/closing up shop on some blockchains (causes usdt liquidity issue, lack of usdt on exchanges(?)).

4. Some ETF outflows mostly grayscale ETF annual fee related (high maintenance costs, outflow/inflow to cheaper competitors or permanent outflow/self custody).

5. Bitcoin over bought, now correction: long term holders selling to short term holders.

Possible time line:
Next 2 weeks possible drop to 50k (for now holding on to 60k thx to oil/gold rally)
Next 2 months recovery/rally to 72k
Next 2 weeks Side ways 72k
Next 4 years to 100k to 150k, maybe 250k all time high.

Bitcoin halving actually does not determine the rise or fall of Bitcoin prices. Halving is just a means to limit the supply of coins circulating in the market so that the value remains maintained.

What makes prices move and can even reach ATH is demand from buyers. When there are more buyers than the circulating supply, of course prices will tend to increase.

Based on that, yesterday when the ETF was approved, it certainly created more demand for Bitcoin than usual so that the price could touch ATH even before the halving occurred. and now because so many people are selling bitcoin, the price will be corrected again.

I don't think it's an alarming scenario. It's actually expected to have some price manipulation right before the halving, so weak hands give their coins away, while whales and confident investors keep purchasing the dip right before the prices suddenly pump to new price ranges.

An explosive rally is expected, but not due to ETFs' approval. ETF's impact already happened once it was approved months ago. What we are going to see from now on is the impact of halving event over Bitcoin's price. That is the main reason why Bitcoin is going to get highly valuable soon.

I can't say anything about it, as the length of bullish markets are always a mistery which can't be foreseen by anyone. We have lots of speculations on this matter, stating the bull run won't cease before Bitcoin hits 150,000$ or 200,000$, but that is highly optimistic in my opinion, and we must be always aware about whales who are also following this market's trends closely in order to mould the tendencies in a way they can be benefited, while everyone else gets lost trying to understand the charts and Bitcoin's next moves.

Historically Bitcoin doesn’t break an ATH before the halving the thing I'm fully aware that happens before the bitcoin halving is the dip that either makes people sell out of panic or create an opportunity to acquire more, and i believe that most people that’s witnessed the previous halving would see this current dip as an opportunity to acquire more Bitcoin instead of selling. Well i believe it broke the ATH because of the approval of the Bitcoin ETF which made many people who bought before then to make lots of profits. But it's not over yet, there's an ongoing dip which normally occurs before the halving and this is a very big opportunity for people to acquire as much as they can  and in my opinion i think we might experience a massive explode in the price of Bitcoin and this years halving would be very much greater than the previous. Everyone needs to be very prepared for the 4th halving but for the bull run ending sooner I'm not really sure about that, well let's see how it goes.

Even before the ETF was approved in January, the price of Bitcoin began to jump. Then Bitcoin slowly broke its past price records. Bitcoin price will increase before halving, I was really unexpected that Bitcoin price will above $73k. With Bitcoin halving just a few days away, I can't predict exactly how much the price of Bitcoin will go down or up. Bitcoin is correcting before the halving It's hard to say exactly where the correction will stop but I don't think it will go much big. Bitcoin may start a new run after the halving, I'm willing to hold on to my bitcoin if it has to wait until 2025 to reach $100k.

I was surprised when it happened TBH because it never happened in the past. Breaking past it's ATH even we haven't seen the event happening? It's the first time that it happened. Now we are currently seeing the market going down a few days before the halving event. Bitcoin is at $62,000 at the time I'm posting this. Those who bought at the bottom are selling their holdings to the faces of those who bought at near it's ATH.

1. Bitcoin ETF has pushed the price of Bitcoin go up. Bitcoin halving event will push it even further that's for sure. I just hope that everybody is ready when the bull run starts.
2. Hmmm, there's a chance that it might happen... or it might not. 12-18 months is the expected date for the bull run to last.

While we can just ineffectively predict about the future of bitcoin, we've experienced an ATH in this circle which is my first halving experience and not much knowledgeable as you Op. So it has been a great experience coming to this height of attaining the fortitude of bitcoin and with a gratitude of the ATH, I hope to see a greater value in bitcoin after the  halving.
At the bossome of another ATH during the bull, I smell a skyrocketing volume but may not stay longer before we fall into the bear due to technical challenges of the mining values relating to the ETF approval.

The Bitcoin halving is only three days away but given the current market conditions, it seems unlikely that Bitcoin will undergo a major correction before the halving. The Bitcoin market is bearish so far and may turn upside down later this year. Now I have no other choice but to hold the Bitcoin market because the halving is very close and the Bitcoin market recovery is not possible before this imminent halving.

Don't know if it's related to the halving or not, but for the past month bitcoin doesn't seem to be able to find a direction:

(CMC)

I'm curious to see what happens on the halving day and maybe a week after, but I've always thought everything's been priced in from the start.  Still, I'll be the crazy guy on the sidewalk jumping up and down with a bitcoin flag cheering it on as the parade goes by.  Hell, I'm always rooting for it.

I think we will first experience a downtrend for a while before the price starts shooting upwards. And after that, I am pretty sure we will have a new ATH.
I am not happy that the big-block spammers are introducing a new token in the form of RUNES on the Bitcoin blockchain. Just when it looked like the Ordinals spam was slowing down a bit, we will now see new activity by the same type of people that will bring congestion to our network.

Can't say for sure if this preemptive pump will prolong or hasten the duration of the upcoming bull run, but what it's not is unexpected. There have been ETFs that were finally approved that go way back in 2014 if I'm not mistaken, one of which belonging to BlackRock so the anticipation and excitement that people felt during this period couldn't help but be translated into bitcoin price pumps, now as I expected this isn't really sustainable, by that I mean it's not enough of a reason to hold the whole market together and propel it even further to higher ATHs in the future. We would need to have a new narrative ready if we're looking to have sustainable bull runs like those of the 2016 and 2020 halvings.

We're not going to have an explosive bitcoin rally as you're trying to presume, if we were to have one it wouldn't be solely because of the ETF, the bitcoin demographics' becoming smarter and in turn more demanding, that practically mundane things like this wouldn't inspire them in the long run to keep investing.

Very true, we notice a significant price drop in bitcoin this recent movement, the price of bitcoin drops to $60k and many people or bitcoin investors are worrying about this movement little they know it is part of the movement of bitcoin it is natural or common because the halving is approaching meaning some of investors might sell some of their bitcoin and its like a small correction in bitcoin price so theres no need to panicked, in fact this is a great time to brought bitcoin before the actual halving event, migjt be risky but its better to risk in bitcoin as it already proves its worth and miracle that's why I dont afraid on purchasing more portions of bitcoin and waiting for what comes to bitcoin. So you might also want to consider risking bitcoin. This might be a great time to buy bitcoin until it is still in the dip movement.

I agree, that's normal movement of Bitcoin if we're talking about its price action. We have to see some drops before the halving and then you know what's coming next when it's done already. This pull back is a normal thing for Bitcoin just after it plunged and that's why we are not even worried at all because if you're someone who still stays long on it, you don't need to worry about anything because eventually the price will recover and it will go up as it is and will moving further and gonna surpass $70k again.

If it's long term, I'd give it months before we finally see and enjoy this bull run or aren't we enjoying already?

It's true we have seen the last bull run and pump due to Bitcoin ETF approval. Otherwise, we haven't seen any significant movements in bitcoin before the halving. All the time, Bitcoin gets hard-pumped after the halving. If you see the historical chart, you will discover how Bitcoin reacts during and after the halving. So this time positive for us, ETF already pumped Bitcoin, and we will see another pump after the halving, though it won't happen instantly. And I don't think the bull will end very soon before Bitcoin breaks $100K. After reaching $100K, we might encounter the bear market again, but we don't know where the bottom points will be. 

One noticeable thing that is always constant with the bitcoin ecosystem is that it always follows same path after every cycle. We witnessed a lot of sudden changes in the market that brought about many talks in the market that we might see something entirely different in this cycle. Sooner to when we’ll be experiencing the halving, it looks like the market have taken a turn and it’s now back to its normal path movement where there’s always a dip before the halving. Those that have witnessed the past bull run won’t see this as a much shock even though it was unexpected after the all time high was crossed before the halving took place which was a great shock to everyone as they all saw that bitcoin have taken another path.


Bitcoin never crossed the all time high since from history of when it was invented. When it did this time around, we all thought it has taken a new dimension and wouldn’t obey any of the past laws (due process) it usually follows before the halving. This dip indicates and proves a lot that bitcoin is still on that trajectory and would follow due process before the halving will take place. Thanks to institutional investors and also the effect of many inventory into the market like the spot bitcoin ETF. The market is still playing well to me and we will be waiting to see what will come after the halving as we hope to see a bigger all time high value when compared to that of the last halving cycle.

price drop before halving, same as last time