Topic: Financial Risk Analytics-Subscription Service - page 24. (Read 130821 times)

Update

Thank you. That explains indeed very well why you choose not to sell. It's true what you say. And it went already a lot higher than many, including me expected. I thank you for that for sure. You kept me on the bull a lot better than I would have without you.

I'm not a trader, I'm an investor, like you.

 

to top it all off, i can tell from your lack of response to my email, you didn't listen to me.

i don't think you really understand what's going on with Bitcoin, especially with how it relates to gold/silver.

when you consulted me privately back on 3/4/13, Bitcoin was below 31 and gold was 1574. here's what i said to you about rebalancing your portfolio:

"seriously, i would sell all the silver and half the gold and move the proceeds into BTC asap.  read the newsletter as to why.  basically i think gold is going to break down below the Dec 2011 low and that would mean lights out for the 13 yr bull."

you countered later about the "masses" coming to gold.  my response:

"i don't believe the "masses all in" argument.

this is the Age of The Internet where communication is widespread.  back in 1980, we didn't know what a gold bug in India or the Ukraine was thinking.  nor were we aware of any bid rigging in the Comex pits or LBME.  that is how we got the parabolic spike of 1980.  in addition, the hangover effect from 1971 gold depegging was still fresh in everyone's mind.

today, i believe we already had our finishing parabola into Aug 2011.  it wasn't as huge as 1980 for the above reasons.  also, if you look at a non log chart of gold, it was still a pretty good parabolic ending.  plus, we now have Bitcoin which ppl are just now starting to realize is a digital gold-like equivalent.  you can see and feel the increasing defections going on from gold to Bitcoin.  you can't ignore this.  this will as well blunt any further run in gold, IMO.

if you're uncomfortable selling metals for Bitcoin, what you could do otherwise is get a hold of an equivalent of fiat and plow it into Bitcoin asap.  we are in a wave 3 up which should blow the 31.91 old high out of the water.  sure we might come back to revisit it but then we'd just go higher again.  we're breaking up and away now which is why i advise getting on board quick.

anyways, do your best to understand the 9yr cycle argument i have presented and continue to ask questions."

None of the many people that sold on the way up announce it, whereas almost everyone who sold at $200+ trumpets it. If it had gone to $350 (if MtGox had remained fully operational just one day longer) they probably wouldn't have. It's just survivorship bias.

this is quite right.

the gox lag is impossible to predict and can lock you in or out against your goals.  i happen to think Bitcoin is still going up and don't want to get trapped out of the market.  that strategy has paid off handsomely.

based on experience, bull markets can run faster, longer, and further than anyone can imagine. 

look at lucif.  he went short @ 13.  do you have any idea how many ppl sold or went short @ 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, etc all the way up to 260?  answer:  tons.

so much money was lost not sitting back and understanding the big picture from a macroeconomic standpoint.  which is why i spend so much time studying other markets besides Bitcoin.

i can tell you're a trader.  technically, i'm not.  i seek to understand what is happening not from just a trading viewpoint but from an economic, social, and political perspective.

there is way more going on here with Bitcoin than you realize.

Just look at all the fiat currencies and their respective supply. Compare that to the fixed supply at 21,000,000 bitcoins. Nuff said.

The thing about bubbles is you never know how high they will go. If not for goxlag, we might be in the thousands right now, and "pop" down to the low hundreds. Selling BTC means reducing your position. You might not get on the train again for a long time. 'Tis better not to gamble with something as insanely valuable as a position in bitcoins.

Maybe I am nitpicking.

I would like to understand better what your reasoning is behind not giving any sell recommendations when the price has been going parabolic for some time and chances for a major correction become much higher?

Think back a year. Price was $4.50 to $5.00 last April.

Today $90+

I'm curious where the price will be in April of 2014. $500+?

I fully agree your big picture to buy bitcoin and sell precious metals has been spot on for years now.  And anyone following your advice consistently has had amazing results overall. I also acknowledged that in my post.

Feeling little sad to see you waiving away and even ridiculing my criticisms though.

I think they are valid but maybe I am discounting your work in the process.

If so, I'm sorry. That was certainly not my intention. Overall, I am a happy subscriber.

On track...

Cypherdoc, I enjoy your reports and value your service.

However, I notice you didn't give any bitcoin selling recommendation in the whole rally towards $266. Just like you didn't give any selling recommendation in the whole rally of 2011 towards $30.

And I am afraid, just like after the first drop in 2011 from $30 to $15, your advice to buy this dip will be proven wrong on a short term basis, the coming months.

I think it is fair to say you have been acting as a permabull up until now. And though permabulls offer high value to buy at true bottoms and stick with it in an upward cycle. A lot of that value is lost when they miss the top completely and go all-in into a downwards temporary cycle.

Or, I think your calls at the bottom of 2011, and into the start of this rally have been very good. Your calls towards the top in 2011 and 2013 and into the downwards cycle of 2011 have been very poor.

Ofcourse, I will revise my opinion if you prove to be right that we get new highs the coming weeks/months. But until then the empirical proof supports my thesis I believe.  


I do feel irritated when permabulls do not acknowledge their wrong calls when missing another major top. Instead of acknowledging the failure, they double down, saying to buy the dip, only to be proven wrong about that too in the months ahead. After which they continue to advise the same, 'buy the dip'. At some point ofcourse they are right. But in the meantime they have been very wrong and have never acknowledged that. I hope you can raise above that and can take responsibility for wrong calls.

If not, all is well, you do offer high value acting as a permabull in bitcoin. And indeed, following your advise, although it is a strong rollercoaster, and great opportunities are missed at temporary tops, you certainly balance that out with giving great opportunities at real bottoms. I believe in the long run your strategy to basically always stick with it, as well as accumulate more, will create great wealth for the once following that advise consistently.

I think you will be able to help more people if you recognize your mistakes more. Because you lose credibility if you don't. Less experienced investors will, understandably, give up on your advise, as the amount of wrong calls add up into a downward cycle, and will not act on your best calls at the bottom. However, if you recognize the past mistakes you made into a downwards cycle, those less experienced investors, will have more sympathy for your continued calls to buy.  


I think investors will get much higher value from you if they are conscious you are acting, up until now, as a permabull.

My advise to other investors would be to subscribe to Cyperdocs service but to either:
1. Follow his advise always.
or 2. Follow your own advise, using your own system. Even then Cyperdoc his bitcoin reports are very informative.

Do not do 3. Follow his advise after he made many right calls, and stop following his advise after he made several wrong ones as this will lead you to continue to buy towards the top, and leading you to stop buying as we go into true bottoms.  
And NEVER do 4. Following his advise after he made many right calls, and giving up on him and doing the inverse after he made several wrong ones, as that is a recipe for disaster. This will lead you to buy high and sell low, ruining your capital.

What?

Whatever you do...

Stocks

Bitcoin