Finding Value ( sports betting) | Bitcointalksearch.org

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Quote from: Viscore on August 31, 2024, 09:07:34 AM

If you believe in this, from your personal perspective, how do you find value?

You find value by identifying an underestimated team by public opinion. It means everyone is talking negatively about that team, but you see a potential there others can't see, because they are blind by their own ignorance or by specialists' guesses. Then you bet on that team against all the probabilities and win a decent prize.

It can be that the team you picked has young and unknown players yet, but you know they are developing their careers fast, and can suddenly surprise the public. Or it can be that the rival team is facing some difficulties with determined key players or even the coach, so you bet against them aware about their current situation.

There are different scenarios you can take advantage when placing your bets at sports scene.

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Quote from: Viscore on August 31, 2024, 09:07:34 AM

I read an article that says in order to win in sports betting in the long run, we need to find value before making a bet. This means we don't need to bet on all the games available because we can't find value in all of them. Since it requires careful analysis based on the information available, it's impossible to analyze every game available for betting. Therefore, it's important to limit the number of bets and make sure that all the bets we make are well-studied so we can come out ahead in the long run.

If you believe in this, from your personal perspective, how do you find value?

Personally, finding a value in sports betting is only when I support or like a football team, follow their matches, and most importantly have all the informations related to the players’ performance. I have seen many bettors are only betting on random matches, multiple times, without any knowledge about that sport or team, which makes it only a total game of luck.
When you set a bet for a match or a game where you will later watch and enjoy, this makes it more joyful and fun, way better than just setting a bet in random places and waiting for the odds to work with luck.

I believe that maximizing your bet amount on one match you are totally aware of, starting from your favorite team, to the opponent. Rather than betting in multiple matches where you are not even going to follow.

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Quote from: Viscore on August 31, 2024, 09:07:34 AM

I read an article that says in order to win in sports betting in the long run, we need to find value before making a bet. This means we don't need to bet on all the games available because we can't find value in all of them. Since it requires careful analysis based on the information available, it's impossible to analyze every game available for betting. Therefore, it's important to limit the number of bets and make sure that all the bets we make are well-studied so we can come out ahead in the long run.
If you believe in this, from your personal perspective, how do you find value?

Well the concept or idea of the article or write up is quite logical. Placing bet on every single odd on a game or rather a particular match is either in most cases going to put the gambler obviously in a loss, negligible profit or zero profit.
Let's take the three most common bets on sports which are ( team 1 to win, match ends a draw, or team two to win) now assuming the odds for each one is ( 1.5 , 2.5 and 4.0 ) respectively. If the gambler takes a bet on all 3 and in the end team 1 wins the game then the gambler obviously loses 2 other games which if he for example staked equal amount for all 3 he would be in a loss even if it seems he won the bet.

On the other hand if the gambler had simply placed a single bet and won he would be in profit only. However if he have placed a bet on the wrong odd then he would be in a loss too however it wouldn't be as fatal as if he placed bet on all 3.

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Quote from: Ever-young on September 08, 2024, 06:00:20 AM

Quote from: Tmoonz on September 07, 2024, 11:44:07 AM

From my own view I think finding value has a lot to with betting or predicting games at the point that we feel that our games stand a better chance of having a possible outcome, this is to implies that we must not gamble all the times even when we know that the available games are not suitable enough to our satisfaction. But however, no matter how much of the value we in tend to place or find, it doesn't give any guarantee of winning, since at some point games do go the opposite, to me it is important we find that value as it creates a better chance of winning and that is mostly how I operates.

And what are those things you see before you select a particular game and consider it suitable for you to place a bet on it, and the value you add to that game—how do you derive them?

I think that's what we are trying to figure out here: how we place value on the matches we select, and what are those things we see on those clubs and teams that make us place a bet on them with the particular option we place a bet on them with?

The value am talking about is the value we place on an obvious team of club we know to be a stronger team compared to the opponent team strength, we add value when we start analyzing even how much of the performance of the both teams players in recent times, there stability and as well as weaknesses, when we are making such analysis before selecting a game, in my opinion that is what i consider to mean adding or finding value even though there is no guarantee of winning irrespective of how much value we intend to add to our games.

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Quote from: Viscore on August 31, 2024, 09:07:34 AM

I read an article that says in order to win in sports betting in the long run, we need to find value before making a bet. This means we don't need to bet on all the games available because we can't find value in all of them. Since it requires careful analysis based on the information available, it's impossible to analyze every game available for betting. Therefore, it's important to limit the number of bets and make sure that all the bets we make are well-studied so we can come out ahead in the long run.

If you believe in this, from your personal perspective, how do you find value?

I believe in this concept and my matches are carefully selected to ensure I play only teams that can give me the results I want. I check head-to-head, injuries, playing spirit and recent performance. These are the things that help me make decision on the team to bet. What this mean is that my selection is highly limited, just two or three matches that have high probability of performing as expected. This helps me a lot in wining often but require me playing bigger amount since the total odd is not too big.

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Quote from: Blitzboy on September 08, 2024, 08:02:12 AM

You may hear that picking the correct games will make you a winner. Untrue. Sports betting has no guarantees. Gambling comes with wins and losses. That must be understood beforehand.

You're absolutely correct about the unpredictability of events in gambling. So, it's also with real life issues. But let's say, for the purpose of discuss, that you're to make a bet on athletics where you've mismatched athletes of physically challenged runners without aid. In that pack you've one able bodied runner without any form of deformity. Wouldn't it be very safe to bet on them as your winner? Of course, you would. I guess that's how gamblers view events and see predictability in games because they tend to visualize them from their inner eyes. I may be wrong but that's how I rate it.

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Quote from: Viscore on August 31, 2024, 09:07:34 AM

If you believe in this, from your personal perspective, how do you find value?

I believe that most of your reply posts on this topic so far have been in favor of such views. And it's natural to have it because if you think about it in general, the more sports a person bets on, the more analysis they have to do about the games. I think if one wants to make multiple bets then one can use more than one website and also many websites have multiple bet option where they can also make multiple bets on one game. I myself often follow this strategy.

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Quote from: Viscore on September 08, 2024, 08:52:08 AM

Quote from: Blitzboy on September 08, 2024, 08:02:12 AM

Even the best sports betting tactics cant win forever. Reality of sports betting is similar to life. Despite planning and strategising, you cant control everything. Like everybody else, even the best teams can fail. Unpredictability adds excitement.

You may hear that picking the correct games will make you a winner. Untrue. Sports betting has no guarantees. Gambling comes with wins and losses. That must be understood beforehand. Escape the ups and downs. Watch your expectations and dont overbet. Instead of chasing an unrealistic betting master ideal, have fun and enjoy the trip.

I definitely believe that, but just like running a business, you have income and expenses, and as long as you are in profit in the end, it means you are successful. That should be the same goal with sports betting. That's why we find value so we can achieve our goal of having more wins than losses. It’s true it’s unpredictable, which is why it’s called gambling—because nothing is guaranteed or certain.

Nothing is guaranteed. We might as well remember that for the rest of our gambling actions.

I believe in value when it comes to sports betting but just like @Viscore said, the games could be unpredictable and even if you get a +10 or +15 handicap, you might still lose the game. Actually, that just means you are betting for the underdog and they might really not cover those spreads.
Now, when it comes to betting for the favorites, I did see myself getting frustrated taking an x1.15 bet and still losing it in one of my parlays. Imagine winning everything and then you lose on the one that you are so sure to win. It's irritating.
There are odds that are traps, we must be careful with them.

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Quote from: freedomgo on September 02, 2024, 10:39:00 AM

Quote from: o48o on September 02, 2024, 09:36:50 AM

Imho you are going to need luck to to find them. And honestly, i don't think which would give better outcome, finding one and betting on it, or betting on random, because it's not like bookies are right all the time and wrong team can win, even if that other team had better odds in your view.

No, you don’t rely on luck to find it; you rely on your skills. If you don’t have those skills yet, you can develop them. What separates us from professional gamblers is that they are skilled at developing their abilities. Even with the smallest advantage, they’ll take it, so we need to think that way if we want to be successful in sports betting. Finding value is always the key, and you can do that by analyzing the market, looking for certain matches that are overvalued or undervalued, and then betting on the team you think will win based on the available odds.

Of course you need luck to find them, just like you need skill to recognize them. It's similar to investing; no matter how talented you are to predict what's good to buy, first you need to find them. And unless you are doing that research full time, you will miss most of the the best opportunities (unless you are lucky).

And when you find less of them, you start to compromise and choose games that are less optimal.

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Quote from: Blitzboy on September 08, 2024, 08:02:12 AM

Even the best sports betting tactics cant win forever. Reality of sports betting is similar to life. Despite planning and strategising, you cant control everything. Like everybody else, even the best teams can fail. Unpredictability adds excitement.

You may hear that picking the correct games will make you a winner. Untrue. Sports betting has no guarantees. Gambling comes with wins and losses. That must be understood beforehand. Escape the ups and downs. Watch your expectations and dont overbet. Instead of chasing an unrealistic betting master ideal, have fun and enjoy the trip.

I definitely believe that, but just like running a business, you have income and expenses, and as long as you are in profit in the end, it means you are successful. That should be the same goal with sports betting. That's why we find value so we can achieve our goal of having more wins than losses. It’s true it’s unpredictable, which is why it’s called gambling—because nothing is guaranteed or certain.

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Quote from: KiaKia on September 08, 2024, 07:51:37 AM

Quote from: Viscore on August 31, 2024, 09:07:34 AM

I read an article that says in order to win in sports betting in the long run, we need to find value before making a bet. This means we don't need to bet on all the games available because we can't find value in all of them. Since it requires careful analysis based on the information available, it's impossible to analyze every game available for betting. Therefore, it's important to limit the number of bets and make sure that all the bets we make are well-studied so we can come out ahead in the long run.

If you believe in this, from your personal perspective, how do you find value?

Just don't forget that this won't safe you from gambling losses either, let's use drake for an example here even though I hate doing this, drake don't just place bets he do it on sure fans or fighters, he doesn't place bets on every games either yet he is in huge losses too, the whole value idea is a cool one, this will make one to lose less money but it still won't erase the possibility of losing money.

Even if your favorite team is the best at the moment, a weak opponent can still beat them, either by luck or by struggle it doesn't matter because a win is a win, after lowering your risk this way gamblers should protect themselves, nothing is better than the urge to control gambling risks and desires, this is what makes you a complete responsible gambler.

Lower your risks on gambling.

You won't win most of the time.

Some bad days can follow one another.

Even the best sports betting tactics cant win forever. Reality of sports betting is similar to life. Despite planning and strategising, you cant control everything. Like everybody else, even the best teams can fail. Unpredictability adds excitement.

You may hear that picking the correct games will make you a winner. Untrue. Sports betting has no guarantees. Gambling comes with wins and losses. That must be understood beforehand. Escape the ups and downs. Watch your expectations and dont overbet. Instead of chasing an unrealistic betting master ideal, have fun and enjoy the trip.

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Quote from: Viscore on August 31, 2024, 09:07:34 AM

I read an article that says in order to win in sports betting in the long run, we need to find value before making a bet. This means we don't need to bet on all the games available because we can't find value in all of them. Since it requires careful analysis based on the information available, it's impossible to analyze every game available for betting. Therefore, it's important to limit the number of bets and make sure that all the bets we make are well-studied so we can come out ahead in the long run.

If you believe in this, from your personal perspective, how do you find value?

Just don't forget that this won't safe you from gambling losses either, let's use drake for an example here even though I hate doing this, drake don't just place bets he do it on sure fans or fighters, he doesn't place bets on every games either yet he is in huge losses too, the whole value idea is a cool one, this will make one to lose less money but it still won't erase the possibility of losing money.

Even if your favorite team is the best at the moment, a weak opponent can still beat them, either by luck or by struggle it doesn't matter because a win is a win, after lowering your risk this way gamblers should protect themselves, nothing is better than the urge to control gambling risks and desires, this is what makes you a complete responsible gambler.

Lower your risks on gambling.

You won't win most of the time.

Some bad days can follow one another.

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Quote from: Nrcewker on September 07, 2024, 11:39:10 PM

There is a specific way to place the bets. I haven’t heard that gamblers place bets in all the available games. In order to place the bet, you need to have above-average knowledge on that particular game. On top of this, you also need to have knowledge about the teams playing and their players squads. Then, if you place the bets according to the playing conditions, you will definitely make profits from it. Otherwise, if you randomly place bets on any live events, then I am afraid that you will hardly make any profits.

Nicely said, Ive had such experience before when I was following a sports betting channel on telegram, the admin of the channel often post alot of live matches, the minimum for each day was around 6,7,8, and some days, he can post upto 10, 15 live matches ranging from football to boxing to volleyball and hockey, it was free to get this games from the channel and bet on them, infact, the admin usually will just paste the game code, we copy it and paste it on the casino's game selection tab, and the game will load, then we enter how much we want to stake on the game, then click the submit button and that's it.

Each and every day, I tried to bet on all of the games posted on the channel, I started this adventure with the sum of $20 and by the end of the week, my balance grew to around $48, I got excited and became even more serious, and by the end of around 30 days of following the games, balance I had left in my bankroll was around $9, all of a sudden, there were alot of consistent loses and at the end, no body told me to stop, I stopped betting on this matches.

And what that experience thought me was that, indeed, not all sports matches, live bets are worth putting money on depending on the gambler's level of sports knowledge.

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Quote from: Ever-young on September 08, 2024, 06:00:20 AM

I think that's what we are trying to figure out here: how we place value on the matches we select, and what are those things we see on those clubs and teams that make us place a bet on them with the particular option we place a bet on them with?

The answer is "research." You'll understand it and learn from experience if you're consistently betting on sports. We're talking about clubs and teams, so we should stick to one league to familiarize ourselves with the teams well, which would give us an edge in the long run if we develop a strategy that helps us spot value. Being successful in this doesn't mean we win every time. Our goal is to win most of the time with a winning percentage that guarantees profit. Along with that, we should also consider the most important strategy: good bankroll management.

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Quote from: Tmoonz on September 07, 2024, 11:44:07 AM

From my own view I think finding value has a lot to with betting or predicting games at the point that we feel that our games stand a better chance of having a possible outcome, this is to implies that we must not gamble all the times even when we know that the available games are not suitable enough to our satisfaction. But however, no matter how much of the value we in tend to place or find, it doesn't give any guarantee of winning, since at some point games do go the opposite, to me it is important we find that value as it creates a better chance of winning and that is mostly how I operates.

And what are those things you see before you select a particular game and consider it suitable for you to place a bet on it, and the value you add to that game—how do you derive them?

I think that's what we are trying to figure out here: how we place value on the matches we select, and what are those things we see on those clubs and teams that make us place a bet on them with the particular option we place a bet on them with?

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Quote from: Frankolala on August 31, 2024, 09:29:53 AM

I agree with you OP, when you are betting on almost all the matches, your chance of winning will be very slim and you will not have the proper knowledge on all the matches or analysis that might help you bring your long closer. Betting on few matches which is easy to analysis will help the bettor a lot because he will have time to make a proper research on the clubs involved.

I agree with the OP too, it's not necessary to be increasing matches to bet on when you're not familiar with them or their leagues. It's better to focus on clubs and leagues that you're familiar with and you can analyze their patterns of playing to be able to guess the probabilities of wins and losses. Don't bet on clubs and leagues that you know nothing about, you will be increasing your chances of losing your money. When betting on the league that you're familiar with it's still not necessary to bet on too many games, you can choose the ones that you feel can give you wins. Betting on fewer games increases your chances of winnings on the long run although it's not a guarantee.

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There is a specific way to place the bets. I haven’t heard that gamblers place bets in all the available games. In order to place the bet, you need to have above-average knowledge on that particular game. On top of this, you also need to have knowledge about the teams playing and their players squads. Then, if you place the bets according to the playing conditions, you will definitely make profits from it. Otherwise, if you randomly place bets on any live events, then I am afraid that you will hardly make any profits.

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If you are very knowledgable in a certain sport or league, you will have a really good idea as to which bets are worth it and which aren’t. Sometimes bookmakers might overlook certain factors and offer better odds than what you might expect. This can also happen in combat sports when a fighter has a huge following and it makes the odds more biased than they should be. If you know a fighter is outmatched but the odds are close you can make a good profit betting against the popular fighter.

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Quote from: GigaBit on September 07, 2024, 06:32:44 PM

When it comes to gamble in sports betting the first thing I evaluate is how much knowledge and skill I have about the sport I am betting on. I should bet after considering whether I am fit to bet on that game or not. But there are many gamblers who think that betting more will increase their winnings which is a completely wrong assumption. Even if a gambler wins in gambling, he will still lose if one adopts such betting strategy. Because if he wins in one bet, he is sure to lose in the other two bets. There is definitely luck in gambling but luck comes very quickly if one gambles at the right place.

You are right, but let me point out that you don't need skill to do sports betting, what you need is just knowledge of the game, skill is only needed when and if you are going to be playing the game with other players live, but as long as you are just betting, what you need is a good sports knowledge, know the players and their individual and team abilities, know how they perform under certain whether conditions, know how consistent the team is at winning at home and away, this plus many more including luck help sports betters win most of their sports betting games.

And the last part of your comment is one I absolutely agree with, in sports betting, luck is important, but it's more important for the gambler to know what he or she is doing first, without you knowing what you are doing, you can hardly win a sports betting game and it's not because you are not lucky, but simply due to lack of knowledge.

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Quote from: dimonstration on September 07, 2024, 05:55:19 PM

Quote from: Orpichukwu on September 07, 2024, 05:36:16 PM

Quote from: SamReomo on September 07, 2024, 11:56:38 AM

Yes, I believe in that and I avoid betting in most sports events because I find no value in those. I only bet on the games where I'm pretty sure that chance of winning is higher for me. I never bet on those games where it only would work for me based on my luck and no analysis. So it's better to avoid betting on such games and only bet on the games where you're sure that chance of winning is higher.

You speak as those there were ever a game that's not dependent on luck but solely on your skills, knowledge and experience. Every game I know, as long as it has to do with gambling is based on luck, I'm not saying that a gamblers expertise are not required, I'm simply of the opinion that, while a gambler's skills and expertise to analyze the game effectively os also very important, i strongly believe that luck is the principal thing there. Because regardless of how good you are with your predictions or your analytical skills, the fact still remains that you may never be able to accurately predict the future, hence you need luck to make your predictions accurate and for you to win.

There’s really no such game that depends 100% on skills since even poker games sometimes depends on luck if you and your opponent manage to have an early all-in while some game you win the first 4 card then you lose the final outcome due to the river card which involves luck already.

I think he meant about betting only on games that he has high confidence that he will win due to the familiarity on the bet. It’s possible if you have a grasp on the team skills while they are against an opponent that has a clearly weaker skills.

I’m doing this strategy too since I’m not a frequent bettor on sports betting. I just place a bet on matches that I have high confidence that will win.

It is very funny that even at some point the teams that presume to be a weaker may happens to win the game, it do happen on several occasions, the truth is that most times gamblers may not understand and maximize knowing the players they optimally rely on, how much good their psychology is at the very point of the game, the players or the team we rely on most times may not really be that all good all the times, my point is that even the possibility are usually very low but at some point an opponent that has a clearly weaker skill can end up winning and that is why much of the emphasis are placed on luck as the benchmark and end products of our gambling as a major winning factor, also note that some times in sports betting precisely the stronger opponent can be fixed to lose the game with the full knowledge of the gambler.

Topic: Finding Value ( sports betting) (Read 1041 times)