Topic: First Golden Cross in the History of Bitstamp (Read 3958 times)

wow, the golden cross was spot on. bitcoin has been on the rise for the last 16 months. price was @ $280. almost quadrupled. nice find, respect.

Thank you! I agree and hope to keep the conversations here valuable and of higher quality than you generally get in the speculation section.

The opposite of a golden cross is called a death cross. I would argue that a death cross means a lot less than a golden cross because the stock market and bitcoin both have shown a tendency to go up over time. This means that if you sell because of a death cross during a generally rising market that has had a standard correction what you have just done is sold towards the bottom. However, if you get a death cross in a market that has looked weak for a long period of time such as a year or so then that might signal a top. It's always nearly impossible to tell what will happen next, but the sort of things I just mentioned at least help me make decisions and are better indicators than using no indicators.

Bitcoin has not had many death crosses because it has generally gone up over time, but there was one in September 2014 at around a $500 price. From there it took over a year to get back to that level. Theoretically, you could have seen the death cross coming a couple weeks in advance and sold at about $500 then waited for the golden cross to form and bought back at $300 in late October 2015. That would have been a great trade.

Here is a link that goes back to show the death cross last year...
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg730zigDailyzczsg2014-05-01zeg2015-12-06ztgSza1gSMAzm1g50za2gSMAzm2g200zi1gAccDistzi2gVol

Great thread!. It would be nice to keep in on topic.

I would like to know if exist the opposite figure of golden cross: something as both MAs crossing down while going down and marking the beginning of a bear market?

Could we see historically one or more of these crosses to watch that effectivily it preceeded a strong bear market?

 Didn't know about the golden cross. Thumbs up, I like this analysis

ps I've also notice the horizontal level you talk about which is now providing support where used to be resistance. I shared my thoughts in this thread https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-primed-1263134 similar conclusion to you I think bitcoin is primed for big moves as a halving mania gathers steam.

thanks for the update.
I believe that the retest of what has now become support ($300 line on your chart) is due and that will tell us where we are. I don't expect this line to be broken either. To me it looks like the new range-bounded level has been established around $350 and it will take a longer while to get out of there (volume chart seems to confirm that!). This will slower down the rise of SMA50.

I wanted to post an updated chart on the one month anniversary of my original post pointing out the golden cross. I think the picture sums up my thoughts at this point. Please post with thoughts/suggestions/questions.


how to screenshot on windows

Probably poor choice of words, but what I really meant was your reading may be inaccurate just because of user error and not bc bitcoinwisdom calculates moving averages incorrectly. After all, it's just a simple average.

That's why I use http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60zigDailyztgSza1gSMAzm1g50za2gSMAzm2g200zi1gAccDistzi2gVol. You can input the data in a very simple a clear way that gives you results you can confidently read.

Good, that you have pointed out that. That is a very positive sign that may attract some investors who until now were still waiting on the sidelines.
We need this cross to be confirmed and then we could get some interesting action, especially if the volume indicator stays at least at the current levels. 

I'm just a poor boy I need no sympathy,
 Because I'm easy come, easy go,
 Little high, little low.

I think this is what he was going for.   a little {bohemian rhapsody}
This explains my situation when I look at charts on bitcoin.

What about Huobi?

I guess you lose some resolution if you want to see a time interval shorter than the period of your moving average, but the readings aren't really untrue or inaccurate.

Yes David, this is real buddy. 


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=txqiwrbYGrs

I see it now. It must be Bitcoinwisdom then. Didn't know there was such inaccuracy

Your right I was assuming it was an average index and misread that title, thanks for the correction.
And unlike Gox I doubt we have a Willy Bot this time around pushing the trend. (Or we have a lot more than 1 this time  )

Here's a graphic with what I would guess covers the part of the time frame in your graphic you were concerned with (July 2013). As you can see, there was never a crossing of the moving averages.


upload image

You're welcome. Glad you found it interesting.

In my opinion, you aren't going to get a true and accurate reading on bitcoinwisdom charts in terms of moving averages bc the moving average calculations change every time you change from 1h to 2h, 4h, 12h, 1d, 1w etc. Maybe if you are a member it's different.

Also, you are zoomed in so much nobody can tell which moving average is which or even what exchange you are looking at.

It needs to be 50 day simple moving average and 200 day simple moving average...point blank.

When I went back to 2011 (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg360zigDailyztgSza1gSMAzm1g50za2gSMAzm2g200) what I saw was that the 50 day was already above the 200 day by the time the 200 day started forming and it never fell below it until the 2014 fall.

Hope that helps.

A lot of people still regard it as a default price setter for whatever reason. Their weird volume explosion and mountains of buys and sells a while back maybe put a dent in that but at least it's still more believable than anything coming out of China.

that seems debatable.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/

They are like 2% of the volume.. who cares.