nor bitcoin going to 10k.
It is not crazy to imagine the bitcoin price to be $10000 in 2020. If we have 5 million active users, it is possible.
~Snip~
An altcoin can only surpass bitcoin if it has more users, because of the network effect. And every day that is not happening, it will become harder to happen in the future. It won't take long before bitcoin will reach critical mass, at which point it won't ever be surpassed.
It is almost impossible for an alt coin to surpass bitcoins because the total amount of all the altcoin users is just a portion of the total bitcoin users. Never have I seen a variant of something surpass the original one. If we think of the amount of audience as a race, bitcoin is already far far away and alt coins are just still in the beginning.