Topic: Football Strategies to apply on a betting exchange (Read 431 times)

I think this is a good way to bet. You could keep doing that and see how profitable you are, then start increasing your bet and skills in the long run if you are profitable. I guess lots of sport bettors are more focused on prize than skill/knowledge, hence they take big financial risk and lose often.

Looks like OP has gone awol or is on a rather long vacation, was last online 3 weeks ago. I wouldn't rule out the possibility that he has gone broke or lost a lot with LTD. It is a working strategy, but you really have to be very selective with picking the right matches. It can work just going by stats, but works way better, when you know the league you are trading on. But then you have fewer matches to select from again

Still think this thread (or rather the topic of it) could be super useful and OP did a great job with designing the first post, but as so often with sportsbetting/-trading, people lose interest fast or don't have the perseverance to keep going (with a good idea) once they face some adversity, have a losing run or whatever.

But maybe he will come back one day and bring things to life in here again

On betting exchanges like Betfair, the Over/Under 2.5 goals markets are some of the most liquid. This makes them a popular choice for goals-based betting strategies, like the Under 2.5 goals strategy. This straightforward strategy involves betting on there being no more than two goals in a match. It can be a relatively low risk system when the two teams facing each other are defensive, and unlikely to go for many goals. As before, when you get in and out of this makes a big difference to your bottom line.

few minutes ago I picked a random match.
I placed a bet blindly.
I tested it with a small amount of DOGE  .

Haltime 0-0

bet on draw 10 DOGE x 3.72 = 37.2 DOGE (+27.2).
bet on not a draw 27 DOGE x 1.57 = 42.39 (+15.39).

scenario:
draw - I get profit 0.2 DOGE.
not a draw - I get profit 5.39 DOGE.

It's still a win-win.



For OP can you make this thread more friendly with a non English speaking member like me?
I still think that what I am done with my bet few minutes ago, is not what you mean.
CMIIW.

Betting on sure games could also mean not betting regularly/always.   If I find a game I am sure about, I will probably put in more time and abit more money on game and bet occasionally on it. This should compensate for not betting regularly on things I didn't research properly on or sure about winning.

Here you can find the List of all most popular Betting Strategies: http://sportstatist.com/category/betting-strategies/

has anyone here try this strategy?
I would love to know the report. 
quite interesting strategy, I've bookmarked this thread.
will try this one and post my result here.

I agree with you, that choosing which team will win depends on us studying the statistics of both teams. From the statistics,
we can compare the strengths and weaknesses of the two teams, so you will see which one is superior. If it turns out that the
two teams have almost the same strengths and weaknesses, the last thing is to compare the last 5 matches of the two teams,
choose the team with the most consistent performance.

We are not going to see different tier teams competing each other too often so it is not going to work for someone who are interested on betting regularly.But it is also easier to analyse if the odds are pretty low and not much people gonna bet on such games the real betting begins only with to head to head rivals plays and also lot of manipulation may get involved.

op has  his experienced and he already know these things but its okay to remind him again . we dont know if what if he uses a new strat and he forgot to use these info's  but at the end of the day there is still no secure ways to win no matter how we follow every laid info' and strats  .  i didnt know that football strats can also be applied on this kind of betting  . thanks to him for giving us an idea  on how this can possibly work   ,  we can then come back here to post our results if its a success or not  .

If you look at the Tier 1 and 2 teams the odds should be pretty fair and will give you a good indication on who will likely win. There are so many people looking at the big teams like PSG for example that I it will be very hard to find thing that everyone else missed. Since the football matches are back during the pandemic I started to bet only on fairly sure games where the risk of losing is fairly low. Sure the winning are low too but it's better than to lose money at the moment.

If you really want to win at betting on sports or etc. You should know how to observe and be measure things. First look at the different statistics of each teams and find their strengths and weaknesses for you to be able to know if the team you are choosing has the potential to win against their opponent.

again not much football today but was able to grab a small opportunity to lock and secure some guaranteed profits.

I used to use geek toys as well for horse racing. But same issue as you. Due to my current location I am not allowed to play on betfair. Beside geek toys I use couple other softwares as well. I loved scalping the horse racing pre race and than hedge my profits over all horses to make a guaranteed profits. Perfect way to make money from horses even if you do not know shit about it.

So now I am obligated to use orbitx exchange through a betting broker. I use BetInAsia as they also accept BTC as deposit and withdraw option.  Only shit is that you can't lay horses anymore. I used to play 'lay the field' plenty of time.


I scrolled through above conversation. I agree that playing 'lay the draw' prematch has not much use. I always wait at least until half time and then check the stats. Below you see one of the few games that triggered me to lay the draw at halftime yesterday.




BTW I like your approach to lay the U4.5 @1.05. its indeed a small risk for a huge reward. I very often also lay at extremely low odds. if for example a team is up by 1 goal difference and I see the other team is pushing then I sometimes lay the leading team in 86th- 87th minute. Lately there always is about 4-6 minutes extra time. Which leads the loosing team that is pushing still has 8-12 minutes to score the equaliser

Perfect! You understand my point! Sometimes you can hit different odds!
"ok I will win more in case of a draw" but if you're trying to get "all green" and maximize the winning options in ALL 3 events in this case you're penalized. With GT this doesn't happens, and always you can set up BEFORE your cash-out option in BF !

Anyone can ALWAYS create their cash-out option even without a SW or accepting BF option. But it requires time and to be able in math (fast!) calculation
(personally I wouldn't suggest)

I think this is just a matter of the odds rising while doing the cash-out. In Strommen match Orbit/Betfair makes back-bet for like 5.6 for the draw, but it actually gets matched at 6.0 (when the odds rise/drop in your favour, it gets matched; when it's to your disadvantage it fails).

But I agree of course, that GT is way better, faster and gives you more options to plan hedges

GT is much faster then BF option. You can always choose BEFORE a cash-out option come out.
Even this is the same function with GT you can hedge the same winning profits on all of 3 events (and not have as seen in this example more money in draw... Strommen match)
Since you can adapt the odds you can have the same win profit, or you can choose an option to get more in another one.
Be the first to offer an odds it's a clear advantage, sometimes I have win/lost bets just for a matter of seconds

This something to watch and to learn, I understand that this kind of betting exchange is not as simple as we seeing it, and thanks OP for providing this as good reference so everyone will not go and be lazy to jumped over without studying and learning the whole process,.
It's a good way to earn if you really pay attention in learning every information and allow yourself assess on how the system will work and favors you.

Congrats on this one OP 17€ guaranteed profits in a single match is really worth the hunt.

Hmm, is it ? The cash-out option at Orbit/Betfair is basically the same like with GT, i.e. your profits get spread evenly among all outcomes. It's just not that convenient, because you can't decide with which odds you hedge, which is a little problem in fast moving markets. With Orbit/Betfair your cash-out will not get executed, when the odds for your profit position go up in the meantime - with GT you can just choose slightly higher odds from the beginning and be sure you get matched, albeit giving up some small percentage of your profits.

Sure, since a 0-0 means a draw.
Some people made the same bets with fixed results " 0 - 0" but is very risk since you're forced to lay an high odds (@20 it means that wins 2 USD requires 40usd as liability!)

Best option is to play during the match, but sometimes there are strong fluctuations of the value even before a match start...

Personally I use this betting strategy with under/over goals. E.G.  lay under 4.5 goals @1,05 (it's a cheap risk but high rewards )