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Topic: For how long can we actually mine ? - page 2. (Read 508 times)

legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
December 11, 2019, 10:13:08 PM
#3
It's all really going to depend on the price. This will determine WHO is mining not if we can still mine. Nothing more, nothing less.
If the price is high enough then big mining farms will continue to dominate. Make no mistake about it. If having 1 miner makes you $1 a day then having 1,000,000 miners will make you $1,000,000 a day so if you have the money you buy as many as you can.

If you cannot make money then the larger miners are going to go away and mining will come back to the home.
If I loose $1 a day but I enjoy mining bitcoin then guess what I am going to keep mining it with something sitting in the back room [So long as I can run it on 110v and it's quiet]

So, it's not "For how long can we actually mine ?" it's how long can big miners keep mining. For people mining as a hobby or for fun, making or loosing money is a secondary consideration.

Just my view.

-Dave

I will always mine. but your point here is very valid.

my estimates are 2025 or 2029 and big mining ⛏ ends.

transactions fees do not scale past those years.  I personally don’t see btc at 50,000 levels for lots of reasons.  basically any clone of it will do as long as the clone uses sha-256 since this is the most common gear.
legendary
Activity: 3500
Merit: 6320
Crypto Swap Exchange
December 11, 2019, 07:40:22 PM
#2
It's all really going to depend on the price. This will determine WHO is mining not if we can still mine. Nothing more, nothing less.
If the price is high enough then big mining farms will continue to dominate. Make no mistake about it. If having 1 miner makes you $1 a day then having 1,000,000 miners will make you $1,000,000 a day so if you have the money you buy as many as you can.

If you cannot make money then the larger miners are going to go away and mining will come back to the home.
If I loose $1 a day but I enjoy mining bitcoin then guess what I am going to keep mining it with something sitting in the back room [So long as I can run it on 110v and it's quiet]

So, it's not "For how long can we actually mine ?" it's how long can big miners keep mining. For people mining as a hobby or for fun, making or loosing money is a secondary consideration.

Just my view.

-Dave
legendary
Activity: 2394
Merit: 6581
be constructive or S.T.F.U
December 11, 2019, 07:17:36 PM
#1
I was reading through this topic , checked the excel sheet and I was inspired to make something similar and to take the "speculation" a little bit further, and I came up with this.



-Since I have no data of future difficulty ( for obvious reasons ) that factor has been totally ignored.
-I also think that mining gears efficiency improvement will cover up for hashrate decrease that is caused by future halving.

The most important column would be the most right (Price Required) , which stands for the price bitcoin has to be in order for

1- Mining to be as profitable as it is today.
2- The incentives for mining remains the same.
3- Mining decentralization does not fade away.
4- 51% attack cost / difficulty does not decrease.

At which point do you think that all the above will be extremely hard to keep ?

I personally think that before 2045's halving whereby price only needs to be at around half a million $ per coin is somehow safe, after that things will start to get really difficult for miners and for bitcoin as a whole ,assuming price does not go pass 100,000$ by 2040 bitcoin mining will be 80% less profitable and less decentralized.

While the next a few years or decades seem to be pretty promising, things become complicated as we move on, i will most likely be dead by then, but I love to speculate how will mining be like by then??
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