I'm not sure that the "massive wave" of publicity helped the bitcoin at all since 95% of the articles were negative. Even before the mt Gox incident and the trojans, most were negative. One could argue that pr-wise it almost couldn't get any worse, we could be at the bottom or near it. Sticking with my coins for now in either case...
Topic: For next few months Bitcoins' price will not rise, it will slowly decrease. (Read 6129 times)
July 05, 2011, 02:32:50 PM
July 05, 2011, 01:48:01 PM
Here's a cartoon showing what is going on:
Just replace "a stock" with "bitcoins".
Just replace "a stock" with "bitcoins".
July 04, 2011, 02:20:49 PM
Enough with the cliched Reddit-speak. I've never seen the word "troll" used so often till I came here. Apparently, anyone who isn't verbally fellating Mt. Gox or the concept of Bitcoins is "trolling". The only folks who live under a bridge are the ones who are too blind to see the obvious shortcomings of the Bitcoin system and are doing nothing to try and correct them.
Poor security arrangement for the Bitcoin client? Ignore it. Poor security at Mt. Gox? Blame the victims.
Come on, folks. Bitcoin can work, but it isn't going to if these basic, basic points aren't addressed.
Poor security arrangement for the Bitcoin client? Ignore it. Poor security at Mt. Gox? Blame the victims.
Come on, folks. Bitcoin can work, but it isn't going to if these basic, basic points aren't addressed.
Most people don't actually attempt to present Bitcoin's real or perceived shortcomings in anything remotely approaching an intelligent manner. If you want to be taken seriously, you (all of you) should start at least attempting to do so.
July 04, 2011, 01:48:58 PM
I agree with some of the sentiment in this thread that if you believe your prediction of the future has an edge, just trade it, and don't share it with the forum, but at the same time I can't help but find truth in what OP said.
Bitcoin doesn't expand markets, it's most valuable attribute is that it's decentralized and can purchase things under the radar. The value of doing business in another currency is expanding into that currency's market. There is not a person alive that only has bitcoins, and no other method for payment, so unless we can make it ridiculously simple for users to obtain and secure their bitcoins, vendors will have no incentive to accept them.
On top of that there is constant downward pressure on bitcoin price because the majority of those who spent money on mining systems are miners, not speculators. They sell daily/weekly/monthly at market price. They want to pay down their initial investment and are not interested in riding the wave. But that said, price will reach a level attractive to buyers/speculators who are already interested in bitcoin, and miners drop-out every time the difficulty is increased, so price will level out.
The only true money coming into the market is from speculators, and what OP said is correct... we've had a massive wave of publicity, and it's not enough to overcome the downward pressure of miner sell-offs, and $15+ is not sustainable. In fact, given what I see in the markets today, I am not sure that $10+ is sustainable, but that's purely conjecture not based on any type of real valuation, although I have a trading background and have watched price act the same way over the last few days, a sudden drop of about 5-10%, a leveling out, a failure to find new speculative buyers which has lead to more drops.
To me this suggests that the most valuable service the bitcoin community can provide would be Futures and Options, so that market participants and miners alike can lock-in pricing and help provide more liquidity and keep capital in the markets, otherwise people will be skiddish, and funds will leak out.
Bitcoin doesn't expand markets, it's most valuable attribute is that it's decentralized and can purchase things under the radar. The value of doing business in another currency is expanding into that currency's market. There is not a person alive that only has bitcoins, and no other method for payment, so unless we can make it ridiculously simple for users to obtain and secure their bitcoins, vendors will have no incentive to accept them.
On top of that there is constant downward pressure on bitcoin price because the majority of those who spent money on mining systems are miners, not speculators. They sell daily/weekly/monthly at market price. They want to pay down their initial investment and are not interested in riding the wave. But that said, price will reach a level attractive to buyers/speculators who are already interested in bitcoin, and miners drop-out every time the difficulty is increased, so price will level out.
The only true money coming into the market is from speculators, and what OP said is correct... we've had a massive wave of publicity, and it's not enough to overcome the downward pressure of miner sell-offs, and $15+ is not sustainable. In fact, given what I see in the markets today, I am not sure that $10+ is sustainable, but that's purely conjecture not based on any type of real valuation, although I have a trading background and have watched price act the same way over the last few days, a sudden drop of about 5-10%, a leveling out, a failure to find new speculative buyers which has lead to more drops.
To me this suggests that the most valuable service the bitcoin community can provide would be Futures and Options, so that market participants and miners alike can lock-in pricing and help provide more liquidity and keep capital in the markets, otherwise people will be skiddish, and funds will leak out.
July 04, 2011, 01:22:48 PM
The internet sucked until it didn't, too.
July 04, 2011, 12:53:38 PM
Enough with the cliched Reddit-speak. I've never seen the word "troll" used so often till I came here. Apparently, anyone who isn't verbally fellating Mt. Gox or the concept of Bitcoins is "trolling". The only folks who live under a bridge are the ones who are too blind to see the obvious shortcomings of the Bitcoin system and are doing nothing to try and correct them.
Poor security arrangement for the Bitcoin client? Ignore it. Poor security at Mt. Gox? Blame the victims.
Come on, folks. Bitcoin can work, but it isn't going to if these basic, basic points aren't addressed.
I see what you did there.
Poor security arrangement for the Bitcoin client? Ignore it. Poor security at Mt. Gox? Blame the victims.
Come on, folks. Bitcoin can work, but it isn't going to if these basic, basic points aren't addressed.
Market sentiment is up which I think is going to definitely improve the BTC market. A rally is not out of the question at this point. Unlike anything we have ever seen before (exceeding parity excluded).
I see what you did there.
July 04, 2011, 12:40:52 PM
Market sentiment is up which I think is going to definitely improve the BTC market. A rally is not out of the question at this point. Unlike anything we have ever seen before (exceeding parity excluded).
July 04, 2011, 12:34:58 PM
It's not import that there are so many bad news and bears, but that how many believers still there after the bad news. Unlike the bear market, people don't agree with the meanings of the recent bad news.
Most of the adopters DO realize that the bitcoin itself have nothing with this bad news, some of them still have very strong faith. Actually, most of them just invest money like 1000 dollars or what, it won't hurt much if they just hold some bitcoin in their hand.
Those most vulnerable doubters has already sold out after the first crash, and the slow price down trend will hurt other doubters. As time pass by, the price maybe even lower, but the number of adopters increased.
As all you see in the forum, some talent payment system start to emerge and replace the sodding ones like mybitcoin. I've already see the coming of some payment tools that is trustworthy and ready to go for average merchants, in the comming months.
Well, at that time, the price will start to rise slowly again. Those doubters, who have been selling the bitcoin, will always be a doubter. They will doubt their judge made around the beginning of July and start to purchase back the bitcoin again, most likely higher price than they sell it at now, that's where the price will hit them to make another vulnerable decision, "I should have hold the bitcoins, now what I should do? yes, I should buy it back". With the new adopters joining in and the doubter coming back, the price will be rally as crazy as we've seen 1 month ago.
the price of bitcoin will continue this fluctuation in the near future, a lot of people will be doing this sell-low-then-buying-high job.
Nevertheless, these speculators supply with the bitcoin community with extra liquidity, which the fundamental of some payment service like bit-pay.com. They are good for bitcoin.
Most of the adopters DO realize that the bitcoin itself have nothing with this bad news, some of them still have very strong faith. Actually, most of them just invest money like 1000 dollars or what, it won't hurt much if they just hold some bitcoin in their hand.
Those most vulnerable doubters has already sold out after the first crash, and the slow price down trend will hurt other doubters. As time pass by, the price maybe even lower, but the number of adopters increased.
As all you see in the forum, some talent payment system start to emerge and replace the sodding ones like mybitcoin. I've already see the coming of some payment tools that is trustworthy and ready to go for average merchants, in the comming months.
Well, at that time, the price will start to rise slowly again. Those doubters, who have been selling the bitcoin, will always be a doubter. They will doubt their judge made around the beginning of July and start to purchase back the bitcoin again, most likely higher price than they sell it at now, that's where the price will hit them to make another vulnerable decision, "I should have hold the bitcoins, now what I should do? yes, I should buy it back". With the new adopters joining in and the doubter coming back, the price will be rally as crazy as we've seen 1 month ago.
the price of bitcoin will continue this fluctuation in the near future, a lot of people will be doing this sell-low-then-buying-high job.
Nevertheless, these speculators supply with the bitcoin community with extra liquidity, which the fundamental of some payment service like bit-pay.com. They are good for bitcoin.
July 04, 2011, 12:09:14 PM
We're keeping the price low so that all the trolls can get out 
July 04, 2011, 12:03:26 PM
Market sentiment is down which I think is going to definitely harm the BTC market. A crash is not out of the question at this point. Unlike anything we have ever seen before (hack excluded).
July 04, 2011, 11:14:36 AM
I agree, where will the next suckers come from?
Especially after all the hacks, thefts, ultra bad press, government threats, convoluted geek centric system, etc etc.
........................Nowhere.
and you .....left holding the bag.
Especially after all the hacks, thefts, ultra bad press, government threats, convoluted geek centric system, etc etc.
........................Nowhere.
and you .....left holding the bag.
Yeah, anyone holding dollars is going to be in for a rude awakening...
Still think government-backed treasuries and massive debt won't result in a 'restructuring'? Keep on dreaming, pal.
And if you don't care for bitcoin, why are you even here? Or is this your after-work troll time.
July 03, 2011, 06:54:43 PM
I agree, where will the next suckers come from?
Especially after all the hacks, thefts, ultra bad press, government threats, convoluted geek centric system, etc etc.
........................Nowhere.
and you .....left holding the bag.
Especially after all the hacks, thefts, ultra bad press, government threats, convoluted geek centric system, etc etc.
........................Nowhere.
and you .....left holding the bag.
July 03, 2011, 06:46:54 PM
The New York Times article is going to result in a lot of new people coming in this week. If you want Bitcoins, now is the time to buy them.
July 03, 2011, 04:47:48 PM
We have just had about 4 of the worst things (except for the collapse in the block) to happen:
1. Mt Gox was hacked that had over 95% market share in trades, everyones email address exposed to the net and fraudulently reported by media as death of bitcoin.
2. 25,000 coin heist.
3. 2 trojans discovered.
4. Anti-bitcoin pumpers/dumpers and fights on youtube.
I would expect bitcoin should have gone to 5 with this news. However, it remained strong and as Jim Rogers always says when you hit a string of bad news and the price does not drop further you are near the bottom.
As for comparing it to a year ago is really foolish technical analysis.
1. Mt Gox was hacked that had over 95% market share in trades, everyones email address exposed to the net and fraudulently reported by media as death of bitcoin.
2. 25,000 coin heist.
3. 2 trojans discovered.
4. Anti-bitcoin pumpers/dumpers and fights on youtube.
I would expect bitcoin should have gone to 5 with this news. However, it remained strong and as Jim Rogers always says when you hit a string of bad news and the price does not drop further you are near the bottom.
As for comparing it to a year ago is really foolish technical analysis.
July 03, 2011, 04:35:49 PM
July 03, 2011, 04:21:28 PM
The problem is that bitcoin is not really mobile friendly - you need to wait an hour on average to have the transaction confirmed - this is OK for online stores but is useless for mobile payments.
Re-read, with particular attention to "directly hooks into an exchange".
If you don't have an account at an exchange but you don't want to wait for your beer, open an account at an exchange before heading out to the pub (or while waiting for confirms on your first beer order). Any exchange that fails to join the exchange-to-exchange SWIFT - uh I mean fast - private network so their customers can get quick service at retailers using any exchange on that private network might just not be the favourite exchange, at least for retail purchasing applications, of most retail-shopper types.
July 02, 2011, 03:44:57 PM
No one knows the future.
Your scenerio may play out. Or there may be a sudden surge of interest in bitcoin by people that want to transfer money across borders hassle-free. Or maybe the entire underground economy will run on bitcoins.
Or maybe it will be a flash in the pan, and everyone gives up on it next week.
If you can predict the future slightly better than what you would expect by chance, via the compounding effect, you will become the richest person in the world within a few years.
Which proves that no one can predict the future, otherwise they would be as rich as Bill Gates right now.
Your scenerio may play out. Or there may be a sudden surge of interest in bitcoin by people that want to transfer money across borders hassle-free. Or maybe the entire underground economy will run on bitcoins.
Or maybe it will be a flash in the pan, and everyone gives up on it next week.
If you can predict the future slightly better than what you would expect by chance, via the compounding effect, you will become the richest person in the world within a few years.
Which proves that no one can predict the future, otherwise they would be as rich as Bill Gates right now.
July 02, 2011, 02:21:05 PM
I think mining is still moving right along, the difficulty keeps rising, its not getting flooded with new miners but most are still mining. I see more businesses openinig up, better information about bitcoins, and easier to spend and transfer bitcoins coming, that should get this thing up, especially after outside of USA picks up on it hard core. BUY NOW. SELLL LATER
July 02, 2011, 01:26:21 PM
This is the same person who supposedly has issues with bitcoin because they are a christian....
That's no contradiction, being a christian you declare being ready to believe absolutely anything.
July 02, 2011, 12:49:58 PM
Thanks for the head's up. I am going to spend all my coins on drugs, kiddie porn and funding terrorism before the value plummets.
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