Topic: For those thinking some bets are safe, read this (Read 14435 times)

It is indeed safer than most gambling games. The results aren't determined by luck but by the skills of the players in the game. Upsets can happen of course, but what are the chances of that happening in a regular game where the other team or player is considerably more skilled? If you know a lot about a sport then your chances of winning bets is of course higher than those that don't have much informarion on it. That's why it's far from luck based games.

Who says that betting has no risk and it is safe?
I'm sure that every player or gamblers or people who do betting also feel aware of this situation. Betting is sometimes low risk with high profits, but mostly high risk for high profits.
However, this is betting, it is like addictive. Everybody likes this so much although they are also often losing.
Betting for many people also become a way to get big profits. Playing it also makes them feel so desired and happy to do this with satisfaction and pride.

Yes indeed, shit day also there even you think your bets already safe but unexpected things can happen, imagine risking a huge amount of money just to win small profits and things didn't comes so we'll, there's no safe way as gambling still depends on your luck and how willing you are to take it with confidence.

When I'm gambling I don't think of safety, I understand that everytime I do that I am risking money.
The risk of losing is always present as that is normal in gambling, however, we are hoping we can win that's why we are not afraid of taking risk.
We can call ourselves a real gambler if we are responsible at the same time, sports betting is fun and can give us better chance that games that has a house edge.

Some people say that sports betting is more safe than other gambling games but this is infant not true. It maybe the fact that in sports betting you have something to think about and then take decisions but it is not 100% safe.
Gambling overall is not risk free. Every gambler must understand this before they start to gamble.

That's true, and never use another money to continue gamble because you can easily to get more losses. Once you didn't obey your rule, then that will be the time for you to lose more money because you are out of your plan. You will risk your money without knowing if you can recover or get the profit. So it is better to stick with the plan we made before, and if we are losing the money, then we must quit gambling with fast.

Even on a 0.01% chance of losing as long it do speaks or do have the odds of losing then the probability on hitting up is always there.So theres no indeed
a safe bet no matter what.You do risk up all in because you are sure that it would win but always think of on the probability that will surely loss and reduce your duration of your lifetime.

Thats the reason why gambling  is called gambling because its unpredictable and no one is guaranteed even if you say that someone has given you verified tips whatsoever  but cryptocurrency are still a hell lot better because they can somehow be predictable if you will based on analysis and other guides  .  you can also manipulate a crypto on your own ways like for example when you buy or sell but not gambling because the owner can only controll the outcome of the game .

What about betting almost in the end of the match/period in football (soccer)? Usually score coefs (exact end score or will team A/B score) are quite high, comparing to choosing which team wins.

Yeah, it's unusual but these things happen, this is every horse bettor's nightmare because in horse racing and based in their past history and insiders tips, you can easily tell the condition of the horse and it's chances of winning I'm sure it broke a lot of heart.

Whoever said that it's a safe bet, must be a shiller IMO but anyway, you are right there is no safe bet, anything can happen and it is unpredictable just like cryptocurrency itself. That's why we should gamble on our own risk to not let to blame someone else because we trust what they were saying.

That's gambling, even if you play with very low odds even though in each type of gambling it is still unsafe and does not guarantee an easy win with those low odds. The bad luck of each gambler is diverse, while you realize that bad luck maybe you won't gamble when the bad feelings haunt you. But for gambling addicts bad luck is the fear that must be resisted to be able to gamble every day because luck can come at any time.

Such thing as safe bet do not exist. In sports anything can happen and you can lose easily.
Thats why everybody should gamble only with money they can afford to lose.

Sure, it is risky. I usually tend to bet on the underdogs because the pay is so high that I can happily wage a low amount of money and never regret it like you never regret spending 1 dollar on a lottery ticket. You know you're playing against the odds and as long as you're ok with losing the bet can be called safe.

Can bet with coefficient 1.01 considered to be a safe or this is still a risky investment?  

I'have lost several times making a 1.01 bets, which I though were 100% win.

yes you are right nothing will be safe here but we don't have any other choices also if you don't take any risk then the way of getting money is not possible so trusting something better than anything will be the good idea for everyone so I also keep doing that every time.

I agree that there are no safe bet, no matter how big is your chances there will be slight chance that you can lose, gambling is not predictable at all, if there is a safe bet the casino will close down, I ever experienced a bad bet, the odds of winning is 1.01, its a badminton match between the champion and unknown player, but in the game the champion got injured and lose the game, so I definitely agree when people said that we can't always win the bet, no matter how great is your speculation skill

If things would have being that safe every one would just be interested in gambling and making money from it and would not have done anything else , as this would have being just the easiest way to make money for oneself. But unfortunate thing is that only certain percentage can make money from such things and rest just lose their money to others.

Even though the margin of wining is way too low, but if you are lucky enough to win, the winning percentage is also un matchable. You will not find any investment which can give you quick profit as gambling can reward you, provided you win.  For sure, gambling is not safe and there is always more chances that you will lose more than wining.

Having that outcome really is great especially that you know it’s possible but not all the time. It’s like winning in a lottery and getting you pumped up to do more betting and celebrating. For sure it wouldn’t happen all the time but the fact that it did, means a lot. You are lucky or not lucky at that round, it’s purely luck. Unless it’s planned.

The best console to ourself is not to be too confident that our bet is safe. I mean, there's no such thing as that. You are risking your money here, that is why we cannot be so sure that in every gambling, there's a guarantee that you'll always win.
Got to visit the website. It is always updated in racing post. There is also a free bets that thr website are offering to attract viewers from signing up to them.

"Low risk bet" to me sounds a bit strange in gambling world. Do you or any else here have examples of such gambling?

I do think that decentralized gambling can help reduce the risk by making things clear to the gamblers ,like their chances of winning  a bet  possibly coded on transparent and immutable platform

Very true of what you just said. How can you determine if your bet is safe in the first place? Maybe, just gamble what you can afford to lose. Line used by thousand times by thousand people but it is true.

Its never been safe when we do talk about gambling. No matter which strategy would you use there would be always the risk on losing money.When we do talk about
the word "safe" its 100% guaranteed win but this thing doesn't really exist on gambling, therefore we should not think up on this way because believing on such hope will just
break our expectations.

Gambling has no definite direction, is either you loose your money or you win profit from your gambling activities and which is the truth. Although, I most confess that  the margin of winning is too small  which seems to be like a situation where almost everyone will loose.

Absolutely nothing will be safe while we came to bet but trusting the untrusted sites will not be always a bad idea for everyone if we had a little bit trust then go with that will be the right way in gambling and it will be the more safer than this.

Well with a high win percentage, i don't think the chances of winning are tiny. Though when you play dice, each roll is on it's own. There are times when it may happen that luck seems to be on your side but again, it doesn't make any difference that the next roll would still be 50/50.

I am never in favor of betting with higher percentages. Those who do it are only greedy person who see big amount of money in case of win. But in reality if you bit with higher percentages, you will lose only and the chances of win are very tiny.

There is no really such safe bet because in the first place, taking or placing bet in a game is already taking risk whether you will have the privilege to win or not. It is just that lowering your bets will give you a low risk of losing lots of money if you have the self-control not to chase for the bet you have lost. The mistakes usually gamblers do is to take a big bet on a game to have a chance to gain a large feed back but do not really know the higher bets they placed, the higher risk is associated and that will lead to chasing their loss unlike putting small bets just for the sake of fun, low risk and low cost loss no need to chase because you have already give a shot to try. That is what I usually do whenever I play into an online casino wherein I just place small bets for the variety of games they have to play because my aim is just to keep myself entertained and that's all because I just frequently play if I am in the mood or during my vacant time maybe 2-3 times in a week just to still have proper moderation in my game play.

However one could not just state a conclusion for just looking at his history posts. I bet he has also had foreseen the possibilities when he/she gambles. As far as I know that only few people are lucky with betting and the majority were just mere losers. So, those who were love to gamble would probably love to see themselves on the win sides. Besides, winning in gamble is like an addiction. You just wanted to win over and over and over gain. Yet, it is fate that will decide on your fortune on betting. If it is not meant for you then you will not getting on it.

It is most likely that he was an early adopter, so probably the loss wasn't so painful for him as we might think. Besides, the whole thing happened more than 5 years ago, when the price for 1 BTC was well below $200.($800K is still a big loss for anyone though).

Reading that reddit thread I came across this comment from user sporabolic:


So I looked it up reading through dozens of his posts. The interesting part is that the guy, mechs, was actually one of the investors, and probably a team member, of the very site he lost so much on.

Gambling nowadays are now offering investments  and that is more better than regular investments because it is still related to gambling and you are also supporting your favorite gambling site .

 i agree on you when you said gambling based on luck but market volatility and market condition does have an effect to our profits .

About the safety of bets . sure there are safe bets  , they are the ones that smaller amounts or amounts that only you can afford to loose  

. bets that arent safe are the ones that is big enough  or you cannot afford anymore  .

Using higher percentage like 96% or even more is a very bad strategy if we intend to do it in the long term. For sure it will give a higher chance to win with such percent, but once we got the loss one, we need to put higher bet to chase our previous loss and if prefer to chase it with flat betting, it would need some wins to make it even, let alone profit. Higher win of chance would be better if we use it only once or twice and then leave the game.

We all know gambling does not give profit at any time we don't have hundred percent surety for gambling then why people are investing and lot of amount the answer is gambling is an addiction if a person involved in gambling then he would not be give up at anytime for long time but most of the people made lost in gambling but some of them are definitely get huge profit with their experience

If you want your money to double with low risks or a high probability of earning then that is called investment , not gambling. Gambling is for sure depends on luck and every bets are more likely to lose than to earn. There are also no market to based on and no volatility of prices. Its just a win or lose situation.

You can not deny the fact that even pro gamblers lose. But when they lose they don't lose everything. The reason pros make money from gambling is that they do not lose their temper. They follow the strategy, invest their time, learn the skills.

If a match is fixed then your analysis is not going to work even if you are a pro.

Nothing is certain and safe, especially making a bet but with the team of people doing a research and proper study on specific event you can earn some dollars. It's job like every other, demands time and skills, in sports betting you track every information about teams/players. Their instagram, twitter, coaches etc.

I will never do that. Let's say the statistic. If I win 98 times out of 100 and if I lose the 99th one then I lose everything. No bet is safe. However, in sports bet you can take the chances. Professional gamblers do their homework before placing a bet.

That's right. Sometimes people place a big hope in the gambling, and they hope the fortune will come to them, so they make a bet in sports betting or playing the gambling game. But unfortunately, their hope did not realize, and the result was they cannot make money from gambling. It's difficult to explain to them especially if people still insist on playing gambling because they want to make money.

Still luck plays the role in winning the bets when we can't assure 100% winning in any bets.So don't go all in with too much hope sometimes it will cost us too much of money.

That’s a lot of money now and for sure that guy regrets that moment. There is no easy bet, there’s still a chance to lose and in gambling its normal. How can you win on your bet if the probability is very very low and yet you still put big money on it? Its show to me how greed people are to do such thing without any thinking that he might lose the money.

When I make a wager, I am not expecting to win. 
This is a mentality I have lived with for a long time.
It becomes less of a let down when I go on a bad losing streak.
If you don't expect to get anything from your efforts, and are rewarded when you do, the stress level remains evened out.

Pretty much reminds me of this:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1npmaq/highroller_loses_800k_with_allin_bet_on_justdice/

The guy "f*ckit" was betting 7016BTC with a win rate of 96.2%, so most of his rolls should of been a winner, basically out of 100 rolls, only 4 losses and he assumed it was safe and lost it all.

He seems like a long time early adopter because looking at his reaction he didn't really seem to care that much.

safe is a subjective term and important details were left out of the OP like odds on the other horses as well as probabilties of them winning.  If the implied probability or payout is less than or equal to the probability of losing it is a bad/losing bet. For example, if you're making a typical spread bet on some sporting event that is giving odds like -110(1.91 decimal and 52.38% implied probability) but you have good reason to believe the event will occur 60% of the time you have a 7.62% edge. Similarly if you're being paid 1000:1(implied probability of 0.1%) and you have good reason to believe the actual probability of that horse winning is something like say 0.15%(roughly 667 to 1) then it is a profitable bet.  Even with it being a profiable bet you're only going to win, on average, 6 out of 10 bets for the sporting event example and 1 out of 667 bets for the horse racing example. So bets should be made in such a way that you have as little as possible risk of ruin while floating variance. In the world of probabilties there is nothing to say you wont lose several or even dozens of 60/40 bets and possibly thousands of 600+ to 1 bets in a row although it is fairly unlikely as the sample size grows. Using "confidence intervals" you can see how wildly/widely short term results can vary from long term expected rates.

At first I thought there would be a talk about arbitrage betting where you choose three casino, bet 1 x 2 and in overall each of them has odd higher than 3.0 but seems there is talk about horse racing and I have no idea why people look it as a safe bet option. One user thought like that too, here is the link of thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/a-proven-way-to-make-money-from-gambling-whats-your-opinion-about-this-5083934
The problem is that people don't know math and 1% of loss means nothing for them, 1% means there is chance which possibly will come.

Its still a valid mindset it might be different vs actual money the experience on the game would be just the same.The difference only is the thrill given when you are
already putting actual money. Safe bet doesn't exist when you are risking your own money so this would simply fits out on faucet or trial ones. 

That is obvious. I don't see any gambler thinks of another way around.

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About the shared site, scenarios like that are really present (or should I say "common") in horse racing. Although the amount involved is not that decent compare to the amount that circulates on the actions here (yes. horse betting industry here is so alive and kicking), we can see that in horse racing, many gamblers wants to take a risk on high odds and not on the other way around as far as the usual doings here are concern. Don't know their references though.

But take note that kind of doings is not applicable on other sports that's why people have different approach on how they will make a certain set of bets.

I know no bet is safe, I have tried a lot of different strategies in sport betting if it can be called strategy. I once started to play 1.10 odds and thought to be always a win. I was betting 100 Euro in a bet and always tried to stick to a single bet. At the beginning many wins came in but then started also some lost bets which did ruin my strategy.

If you can't win with an odd of 1.1 I doubt thete is something called a safe bet.

I think there is a big difference between gambling and sports betting, chances of winning at gambling are relatively small unless you use some illegal methods which will in most cases be short-lived. On the other side sports betting does give us a little better chance, by analyzing certain things as team players form, injuries, statistics of victory / defeat and some other info chance to win increases, but at the end it all depends on luck or referee.

In the case of sports betting when it comes to football, basketball, handball or any other sport which has three possible outcomes (1 x 2) or in case of bet with double chance (1x x x2), just imagine you bet on home win on one game - you chance to win is only 33% and other side is have 66% to win. So odds are already unfavorable in the start, and if you add more games on same ticket they are becoming lower and lower.

To equalize the odds try to play on sports like tennis where chance for win/lose is 50/50% and play only single bets with a bigger amount of money. However there is no safe bets, you can only try reduce the risk to the maximum extent possible.

Exactly. That's how people get into gambling. Although I am not a active gambler, I got into gambling in this kind of way. People at the beginning join gambling just for having fun while it turns into addiction in most case. Leaving gambling is so hard for the addicted people.

Maybe it's good for you, but you never have a real experience of the losing money like us
Someday you will tempt to try to use your coins for the bets because you want to know how the feeling if you can win the money. It is like what I got in the past, and finally, I use my coins to enter the real experiences in gambling, and yes, I got the win and lost in many times, but it does not make me sad because I know how to leave the place

The only safe bet is by using practice mode at online casino.At lest I won't lose money

Those guys afford to lose the money, and we don’t need to follow them instead we should learn from that mistakes. Always think that even you have a lot of money, you have to remins yourself that you work hard for that and its not good to take the risk through that money. Betting is not a same gambe, there is always no safe money in gambling.

It is all about value.

If you think the odds of 1.50 are worth 1.40 in your reality conception, then it is worth a stake. If it just like in real life, we say supply and demand set a perfect price for goods and services, but you will never pay $5 for a piece of bread if you can find the same good quality bread for $1.50, so the same applies here.

Same of course in the stock market where prices are said to be a perfect representation of reality (efficient market). 

Yes, no bet is safe but it the matter of how much risky is the bet. The example you mentioned is a rare one. In normal circumstances it is better to choose safe bets on which chances on loss are less but still you never know, anything can happen in the best. Even you can lose the most safest bets.

Maybe you can lower the odd but safe bet is kinda impossible unless rigged

Some bets are pure speculation which somehow is promising in the eyes of any gamblers and there are some who really loves to risk due to their guts telling. Either way, what we choose nobody will ever predict the outcome no matter what analysis we do and that risk is still there.

There are lot of people who love to take risk at any extend so this is just normal in gambling when people believe that they are extremely lucky.But I won't go to too much of risks increasing the level will make our money to be lose so ot depends.

I have also seen some gamblers playing the dice game with a 98% win chance setting sometimes and they would usually place a huge amount on every rolls they made, it might seems as a safe bet in some people views. But in reality, they still stand a small chance to lose the bet even if it might seems unbelievable, I wonder why does some people still believe in bets that are safe, if this sort of bets truly exists in the first place, I believe all of the casinos would surely cease their operation after a few months time.

You can see too much greed on the part of the gambler since you can see the level of chance to win on this one is almost zero and yet they still choose to bet at a higher value. Well, this is what gambling is all about there is really no safe money in gambling because everything is in risk and if you’re greedy enough to gamble on this kind of situation, you can expect that your money will lose.

There's never, ever going to be a safe bet or gamble (as risk is implied in all gambling), and there are also times when the R/R (Risk/Reward) just doesn't make sense, like with this bet where the odds were leaning so heavily towards one horse. This is also why it's a good idea to have a plan to manage your bets by making each bet at or below a certain percentage of your bankroll to manage the risk-to-reward of a bet and to ensure you don't lose your entire balance on a few bets. Traders do something similar in their trades to minimize risk, especially with leveraged crypto trading, and this also works for betting to some extent.

No bet is really safe when it comes to Gambling world. Even it would count as 1 chance out of a million then there still risk on lossing even you do believe that is impossible for that
situation to hit up. Anything can happen and even on a very very low odds it can turn upside down and broke/shook all bettors. This is why its called gamble.

What I can't understand is that how can someone risk $1,000 in order to win, although with high probability, just $1. But I do understand people who are betting the other way around, and I'm really glad for them that they have won this time. It's gambling ffs, anything can happen and nothing is guaranteed here! Those who can't comprehend it lose big time eventually.

I can remember one of my unluckiest lose in Cricket world cup 2011. The match was between England and Ireland. I placed bet for England from the beginning. After having a 328 runs by England, I placed some more. But I was not in favor of my luck that. Ireland won the match after losing 5 wickets, afair.

There is always risk in betting. Even in a football match a team behind 3 goal at 85th minute can draw, in cricket last wicket needs more than 100 run can win the game. Nothing is certain when it comes to gambling.

Talking about match fixing? That's another subject. You won't even know when where and how it's happening unless you have valid connections.

You are talking about Horse Race which is also one type of casino gambling, and this type of winnings happen once or twice in 100 or 1000 games, so you cannot point out on this type of bet and say risky is bad. If anyone bets on 1 % chance of winner is also not good,

Actually there is and that is if you're cheating. A professional gambler always does that. They always think about the odds and how they will win but still there are chances that has to be made even if its illegal. The only case for this is for not being caught, because if they we're... They're gonna be a dead man walking already.

The risk that gamblers make should be accepted in their mind and emotions. I agree that there is nothing called as a safe bet or anything sure. If someone offers you something like a promise to have a profit in the short term, it's definitely a scam. There's nothing safe if you want to profit. I think everyone should follow what you're saying. Low-risk bets are definitely okay, and you will still earn in the long run.

Gambling and betting is itself a risky venture so every gambler know this fact that there is nothing called safe bet. There is low risk bets where gamblers can limit their losses. For you example, the odds were 1000/1 which can be easily lowered and made this bet a low risk one. In gambling, nothing is really safe and that's the reason why gambling should never be considered as a method of making money.

"no bet is ever safe" but this is too high for me 1000/1 is just pure looses and I believe we could not just close our eyes and throwing away money. 

The page should be accessible with a VPN. It says a horse won at odds of 1000/1.

For those who don't understand betting, it means this horse had 1 chance out of 1000 to win the race, and the horse won by an inch or so. I don't know if the horse had 3 legs or what (joking) but it is an incredible story.

To be fair, the odds of winning at the lottery are even much much higher and some random folks win it (or perhaps it does not happen, some fake stories to advertising the lotteries, you just never know).

It seems I cannot load the site because it's an error in my pc.

It is why we must know about the risk in gambling, and no matter is safe, there will be a risk inside the gambling game. But this could prevent by using the money you can afford so you know when you need to stop. Better to end the game while we still have money than we are losing all the money.

Of course, there is nothing as a safe bet. There are low risk bets, which is the case however.

But even if the risk is low, things may go different than you expected and you may lose money. That's why it is important not to gamble more than you can afford to lose.

Please read this
This was a horse racing market, which a total of 249 british pounds layed at odds of 1000/1. That means a total loss of 249,000 (of course it was not a sole bettor but the total of them betting against this horse).
No bet is ever safe.

For the record, those who layed Leicester to win the Premier League back in 2015 felt the pain too. Some wisdom to learn from it