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Topic: For Those Wondering Why The Current Rally (Read 10133 times)

legendary
Activity: 1031
Merit: 1000
April 09, 2013, 02:15:00 PM
#68

Heh!  Nothing could be more exciting than a feeding frenzy of well capitalized sharks in a market as tight as Bitcoin.

A perfect statement, that.

Is this fun or what? And being right makes it even sweeter!  Wink
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10

Heh!  Nothing could be more exciting than a feeding frenzy of well capitalized sharks in a market as tight as Bitcoin.


A perfect statement, that.
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
In cryptography we trust
Take a look at the differential between the MtGox USD price and the price at BTCChina. The price at BTCChina has been about $15/BTC above the MtGox price in the last few days. It seems the buying in China is even more aggressive than at MtGox.

And MtGox seems to be throttling the inflow of new funds (thanks to their "verification" process?) which is probably a good thing.
newbie
Activity: 51
Merit: 0
Take a look at the differential between the MtGox USD price and the price at BTCChina. The price at BTCChina has been about $15/BTC above the MtGox price in the last few days. It seems the buying in China is even more aggressive than at MtGox.
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
In cryptography we trust
Figured I would let people know that the next 2-3 months are going to be extremely exciting with the bitcoin price. You may be tempted to sell but that may not be a very good idea and you will likely be regretting that decision six months from today. There is going to be a ton of funds flowing into Bitcoin.

Currently, there are a bunch of Silicon Valley VCs and Wall Streeters, at least 5-6 I am personally aware of, who are fighting over each other to establish multi-million dollar positions. But that amount of capital is going to look tiny compared to what is scheduled in about 2-3 months. The Bitcoin market, at current prices, is simply far far too small for these amounts of fund flows and why they are melting up the price by buying anything that appears for sale.

Checkmate! Thanks for the info.
legendary
Activity: 4592
Merit: 1276
The wealth transfer from holders of other stuff to holders of bitcoins is accelerating.

Figured I would let people know that the next 2-3 months are going to be extremely exciting with the bitcoin price. You may be tempted to sell but that may not be a very good idea and you will likely be regretting that decision six months from today. There is going to be a ton of funds flowing into Bitcoin.

Currently, there are a bunch of Silicon Valley VCs and Wall Streeters, at least 5-6 I am personally aware of, who are fighting over each other to establish multi-million dollar positions. But that amount of capital is going to look tiny compared to what is scheduled in about 2-3 months. The Bitcoin market, at current prices, is simply far far too small for these amounts of fund flows and why they are melting up the price by buying anything that appears for sale.

Heh!  Nothing could be more exciting than a feeding frenzy of well capitalized sharks in a market as tight as Bitcoin.

I really hope the Bitcoin community gets to benefit from this massive upcoming wealth transfer. To do so merely (1) hold onto your bitcoins, (2) restrict supply as much as you can (this is very important) and (3) make any of these newcomers pay dearly for whatever trickle of bitcoins you do choose to sell or spend.

Like I've mentioned before, 'parity' being defined as 1BTC/KG-Au sounds about right to me Wink

Thx for the heads-up.  Particularly if it is square and well founded.

full member
Activity: 182
Merit: 106
Well that's scary.
legendary
Activity: 1145
Merit: 1001
A person who claims to be day-trader says that he has been seeing large buys recently and it appears to him also that big players are moving in:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1bkhj5/it_cant_be_daytraded/
legendary
Activity: 1031
Merit: 1000
The wealth transfer from holders of other stuff to holders of bitcoins is accelerating.

Figured I would let people know that the next 2-3 months are going to be extremely exciting with the bitcoin price. You may be tempted to sell but that may not be a very good idea and you will likely be regretting that decision six months from today. There is going to be a ton of funds flowing into Bitcoin.

Currently, there are a bunch of Silicon Valley VCs and Wall Streeters, at least 5-6 I am personally aware of, who are fighting over each other to establish multi-million dollar positions. But that amount of capital is going to look tiny compared to what is scheduled in about 2-3 months. The Bitcoin market, at current prices, is simply far far too small for these amounts of fund flows and why they are melting up the price by buying anything that appears for sale.

I really hope the Bitcoin community gets to benefit from this massive upcoming wealth transfer. To do so merely (1) hold onto your bitcoins, (2) restrict supply as much as you can (this is very important) and (3) make any of these newcomers pay dearly for whatever trickle of bitcoins you do choose to sell or spend.

So, who wants to be like the Litecoin trader with seller's remorse? One guy wrote a sad tale about how in January he bought 80,000 litecoins at $0.068 and sold them at $0.20. Litecoins are selling for about $5 today. So he took a 194% return, or $10,560, but missed out on a 7,250% return, or $394,560. and is feeling seller's remorse.
legendary
Activity: 1031
Merit: 1000
February 09, 2013, 10:19:59 PM
#59
I am very new to Bitcoin and I am already seeing this thing as the new gold. I couldn't trust anything more than a currency backed by the internet. Ever since the 90s Dotcom bubble, I knew things were changing and money is only next in line.

So what's not to trust?

Many people my age don't trust new technology. They like things to be traditional. People should be free to go backwards but I am moving forward. Go Bitcoin!

Yes, not trusting new technology can be problematic because it puts one at a competitive disadvantage to those who do trust new technology. Digging holes with shovels instead of backhoes.

The wealth transfer from holders of other stuff to holders of bitcoins is accelerating.

legendary
Activity: 1031
Merit: 1000
December 10, 2012, 02:14:13 PM
#58
This can be handy when you have a government that provides a currency that gets inflated

Actually GDP is often just a mirror, although delayed, for the creation of new currency by the State.
donator
Activity: 1419
Merit: 1015
August 02, 2012, 10:12:06 PM
#57
GDP is a worthless number.

Eh, I used to think so too. And being from the Austrian school-of-thought I would agree with what Mises says, but when considering the productive output of the world, it is (at the very least) a measure of transactions. This can be handy when you have a government that provides a currency that gets inflated, but it becomes kind of useless when said government quits recording M3 so you can see its impact, so I digress.
legendary
Activity: 1031
Merit: 1000
August 02, 2012, 09:08:20 PM
#56
this is actually a good point.  for that however, one requires visionary thinking.  not everyone has that even when they are a UHNWI.

But in most cases they did not get or stay there by accident. They often have visionary thinking and willingness to take prudent risk.

Bitcoin seems to be be one of the "stickiest" of World GDP currencies, ie, the kind that doesn't strengthen in value the more it is used (as others would expect it to). Basically, to put it in economic terms, our M3 is too high

GDP is a worthless number. From Mises:

I am very new to Bitcoin and I am already seeing this thing as the new gold. I couldn't trust anything more than a currency backed by the internet. Ever since the 90s Dotcom bubble, I knew things were changing and money is only next in line.

So what's not to trust?

Many people my age don't trust new technology. They like things to be traditional. People should be free to go backwards but I am moving forward. Go Bitcoin!

Mike, you seem to get it. Gold, like the FRN or Euros, is merely the blood while banks, credit cards, Paypal, etc. are the veins. Bitcoin is both the blood and the veins. This makes Bitcoin, in several ways, the ultimate offshore account.

One thing we know for sure is that the stuff we use as currency, like FRN, Euros, Yen, etc. are not going to be used as currency much longer. The system is completely FUBARed. What replaces it remains to be seen. Will it be Bitcoin? Perhaps. Perhaps not.

But you are right that monetary evolution is coming and it doesn't matter what anyone tries to do to stop it. Change is not mandatory; you can go extinct.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
Wat
August 02, 2012, 07:49:55 PM
#55
Once Bitcoin reaches VISA levels, the technology will be there - it is as easy as that.
I think that's a too simplistic attitude. Bandwidth doesn't follow Moore's law; instead it often regresses to where many people now suffer severe bandwidth limitations, peering partners start arguing about money, and powerful companies fight network neutrality. Instead of sitting back and waiting for bandwidth to become ubiquitous and limitless, Bitcoin development must be focused on scaleability.

Well before we reach VISA levels, bitcoin will hit $100 a piece and there will be much more incentive to tackle the issue.  The closer we get to the scaling problems the more resources we will have to tackle them.  I'm not worried.

Do the Dev's have an actual plan? You know -- with projected growth estimates, and various deadlines and coding milestones to achieve based on that? And where can I dig around for such info?

There is not plan of that detail that I'm aware of.  If you're so worried, make one.  That's how open source works.  We have a wiki and a mailing list.  Lay out a basic schedule and ask the bitcoin-dev list for feedback.


https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/announce-bitcoin-testing-project-80019   this is worth supporting.
newbie
Activity: 14
Merit: 0
August 01, 2012, 06:10:07 PM
#54
That is probably the most deluded thing I've read around these parts. 1% of world GDP is 700 billion US dollars.

Sorry, I mistyped and put the decimal point in the wrong place. I believe .01% of GWP within a year is possible. This is still $7 Billion.

Bitcoin seems to be be one of the "stickiest" of World GDP currencies, ie, the kind that doesn't strengthen in value the more it is used (as others would expect it to). Basically, to put it in economic terms, our M3 is too high, no one trusts the currency enough to leave any significant value in it, especially the black market dealers which probably make up more of Bitcoin than we are willing to admit. I do think we could represent .01% of World GDP, but it will be with a currency that has such a high turn-over rate that we wouldn't enjoy the price we'd expect from it. Volume-wise I think the network can handle $7 billion per year's worth of transactions, though.

I am very new to Bitcoin and I am already seeing this thing as the new gold. I couldn't trust anything more than a currency backed by the internet. Ever since the 90s Dotcom bubble, I knew things were changing and money is only next in line.

So what's not to trust?

Many people my age don't trust new technology. They like things to be traditional. People should be free to go backwards but I am moving forward. Go Bitcoin!
donator
Activity: 1419
Merit: 1015
August 01, 2012, 05:58:01 PM
#53
That is probably the most deluded thing I've read around these parts. 1% of world GDP is 700 billion US dollars.

Sorry, I mistyped and put the decimal point in the wrong place. I believe .01% of GWP within a year is possible. This is still $7 Billion.

Bitcoin seems to be be one of the "stickiest" of World GDP currencies, ie, the kind that doesn't strengthen in value the more it is used (as others would expect it to). Basically, to put it in economic terms, our M3 is too high, no one trusts the currency enough to leave any significant value in it, especially the black market dealers which probably make up more of Bitcoin than we are willing to admit. I do think we could represent .01% of World GDP, but it will be with a currency that has such a high turn-over rate that we wouldn't enjoy the price we'd expect from it. Volume-wise I think the network can handle $7 billion per year's worth of transactions, though.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
August 01, 2012, 04:16:34 PM
#52
I have had a few HNWIs and UHNWIs whose only reservation with moving $500k or $1m into BitCoin is the lack of liquidity and scalability of investment so they settle with puny amounts like $25k or $50k, etc.

It's funny: some types of investor won't invest into bitcoin because the market is too thin to suck up their currency. They will probably invest their millions of USD when bitcoin trades around $100 saying: "finally this market has matured enough so we can invest, even using our comfy brokerage account". Had they just invested $100,000 now and blown $900,000 on drugs and women.. they would have the same amount of coins in the end.

this is actually a good point.  for that however, one requires visionary thinking.  not everyone has that even when they are a UHNWI.
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
August 01, 2012, 04:14:14 PM
#51
I have had a few HNWIs and UHNWIs whose only reservation with moving $500k or $1m into BitCoin is the lack of liquidity and scalability of investment so they settle with puny amounts like $25k or $50k, etc.

It's funny: some types of investor won't invest into bitcoin because the market is too thin to suck up their currency. They will probably invest their millions of USD when bitcoin trades around $100 saying: "finally this market has matured enough so we can invest, even using our comfy brokerage account". Had they just invested $100,000 now and blown $900,000 on drugs and women.. they would have the same amount of coins in the end.
legendary
Activity: 1031
Merit: 1000
the recognized primary dev team remains composed of people who are several cuts above the mid-tier user base in terms of their motivations and engineering effectiveness.

The Bitcoin development team is awesome!
legendary
Activity: 4592
Merit: 1276

It would probably take more than a decade to get that kind of penetration with bitcoin, and I think that's being overly optimistic.  Also, I expect by that time the bitcoin idea will have evolved a better system.

It will probably take a long time before a 'better' system takes over as long as the recognized primary dev team remains composed of people who are several cuts above the mid-tier user base in terms of their motivations and engineering effectiveness.  I conjecture that Bitcoin will _be capable of_ evolving to overcome most of the problems that could crop up although it will lose some of the features that were enjoyed in it's early existence.

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