Forbes claims that more than half of Bitcoin trade records are fake - page 2.

NotATether

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Quote from: Ever-young on August 26, 2022, 05:11:01 PM

I just came across account published today by Forbes titled " More Than Half Of All Bitcoin Trades Are Fake"
How on earth will they believe that.

Here is the problem with articles like this:

Notice how the title says Bitcoin Trades not Bitcoin Trades on Exchanges.

This seems to imply that a large amount of Bitcoin's trading volume being fake is the fault of Bitcoin itself, and in particular the protocol (which ironically has nothing to do with exchanges).

Simply because they made a careless ommission of the word "Exchanges" in the title, now thousands of lemmings around the world are going to believe that bitcoin actively facilitates fake trading just because its scientifically proven that most people don't read beyond the headline.

Ever-young

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Quote from: stomachgrowls on August 26, 2022, 05:25:24 PM

Where they do get those percentage? Do they able to check out every trading or exchange platform and verified out that some of those trades were fake?

That's my worry mate, their is no doubt of fake volume on some exchanges, but for them to justify and give actual percentage (51%) that's stating that they are very sure of what they are saying, they can't just judge by what they get from few exchanges and draw conclusion instantly.

Quote from: odolvlobo on August 26, 2022, 05:49:33 PM

Quote

Forbes has conducted dozens of interviews of senior executives at major crypto exchanges to supplement quantitative information on a firm’s profile.

As you can see, other than the web traffic analysis, their numbers are entirely subjective.

They can conduct the interviews, gather sources from third party but that doesn't make them 100% certain to their claims, to me that figure is wrong unless proven otherwise.

pooya87

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Nobody has ever doubted that the cryptocurrency exchanges have been reporting fake volumes. Some more than others, for example the Chinese exchanges that the Chinese government cracked down on and shut them down were reporting unrealistically HUGE volumes and were actually using it as a covert to launder large amounts of dirty money through their centralized platforms. The other exchanges are doing the same too.

The thing is, you can't calculate how much of it is fake by looking at public data. You have to actually gain access to their internal private data and use that to compute the fake volume and then arrest them for money laundering.
What people at Forbes are doing is simply nonsense and the article is only using technobabble to justify the numbers they reported in their FUD.

Hydrogen

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During the big block debate. It was claimed that some miners were filling BTC blocks to less than full capacity. Blocks 1 megabyte in size might contain less than 300 KB of actual data. This was back when there was a push to increase block size to 2 megabytes or larger.

Bitcoin transaction volume being one indicator that traders use in an effort to gauge demand. It is possible that some will send bitcoin from one wallet they own, to another. To artificially boost transaction volume and produce artificial demand. There are other motives for the practice.

Its a real world case for why building a better system won't necessarily deter unwanted actors from carrying out questionable schemes. People like to argue that capitalism or socialism will systemically prevent evil. But if people are determined enough, they can usually find loopholes in any system. As none are ever perfect.

DooMAD

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Quote from: dothebeats on August 26, 2022, 06:14:57 PM

I know exchanges somewhat pad and inflate their own statistics, but for it to be more than half is IMO reaching.

Quote from: Yamifoud on August 26, 2022, 06:29:57 PM

I'm not sure about half of the trade records are fake but I believe that some exchanges had faked their taking volume in order to attract more traders to join.

It really wouldn't surprise me if it was more than half, given how many years it has been going on. Exchanges like Huobi and OKCoin spent at least five or more years reporting what I'd estimate to be around 90% fake volume. And I'm fairly sure that nearly all exchanges are guilty of it to some extent. If you average it out over time, more than half seems pretty reasonable.

Yamifoud

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I'm not sure about half of the trade records are fake but I believe that some exchanges had faked their taking volume in order to attract more traders to join. I'd see this most in non-reputable exchanges and much more for scam exchanges. I'd see how devastating it was and ruining the trust of the people and this make some to felt worried and doubtful. This kind of trick is very known to us now but this would never win as long as we've done the research, we still found them who manipulate the records.

dothebeats

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I know exchanges somewhat pad and inflate their own statistics, but for it to be more than half is IMO reaching. Bitcoin is still a popular trading asset for a lot of people, and if they think that it's easy to still fake trades for exchanges in this day and age then they must be delusional. They never seem to lose angles to attack bitcoin continuously, even though their claims are getting more and more absurd each day.

n0ne

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To keep themselves high on the market, exchanges gets involved in such kind of act. There is possible chances, because in the past similar incidents have happened and many exchanges have terminated its services. In particular it was the first time the People's Bank of China made an inspection and found a big detail of fake volume by the Exchanges to keep the market high. During those time period the market experienced a massive decline and further the recovery happened.

odolvlobo

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Quote

The Forbes methodology for discounting bitcoin trading volume follows a series of steps.

Regulation. We identify crypto licenses and from what regulatory body that each exchange possesses and use that as proxy to gauge their level of sophistication and intent to deter wash trades and publishing fake volume.

Third-party input. We considered the work of select third parties such as volume data from CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, Nomics and Messari. Messari’s volume statistics are less extensive by pairs, and it has fewer exchanges than its peers, but it has its own real-volume calculations. Forbes tracked in recent months how Messari applied a volume discount ranging from 40% to 65% to Binance volume, compared with the averages reported by CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko and Nomics at the time. Messari also discounts the trading volume of FTX by a lesser percentage (less than 20%) and that of Kraken by 99%. With regards to this latter, Forbes doesn’t share the view of applying a heavy discount to a firm that is among the most regulated crypto exchanges in the world. Most exchanges going through the Messari real volume analysis, however, lack any type of volume discount.

Web traffic. Forbes employs third-party data from web analytics firm SimilarWeb to heavily discount the volume of firms claiming a high trading volume without having sufficient crypto licenses and web traffic to generate such volume.

Forbes interviews. Forbes has conducted dozens of interviews of senior executives at major crypto exchanges to supplement quantitative information on a firm’s profile.

As you can see, other than the web traffic analysis, their numbers are entirely subjective.

stomachgrowls

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^
Where they do get those percentage? Do they able to check out every trading or exchange platform and verified out that some of those trades were fake?
There's no way that you could really able to verify it out unless if you do have some internal connection when it comes to verification of things.
Of course they could really presume out about fake volume or trades which is common not only on crypto market but also in other market as well
but putting up some numbers and feels like they are sure about it but having no solid back up with those claims then it would really
be just simply be ignored by this community.

Ever-young

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As we all know Bitcoin hold about 40% + of total market capitalization which is the coin with the highest trading volume both monthly and daily trading volume. Which I have no doubt that. I just came across account published today by Forbes titled " More Than Half Of All Bitcoin Trades Are Fake"
How on earth will they believe that.
The trading volume for btc is increasing day by day on individual exchange, of a truth their are exchanges which manipulate trading volume on their exchange to draw the attention of traders, exchanges like Finexbox
But that does not mean that the total daily trading volume up to 51% for btc is false.
Going through trade history to total volume recorded by different exchanges, both centralized and decentralized exchanges I fine their analysis wrong.
According to them Companies like Binance, MEXC Global, and Bybit are examples of some of the largest issue areas when it comes to phony volume.
Really don't know where and how they got their source and come in conclusion to this. Btc market is large and it's trading volume is a big representative of how large the coin is.

Topic: Forbes claims that more than half of Bitcoin trade records are fake - page 2. (Read 345 times)