Found support where I hoped | Bitcointalksearch.org

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: afbitcoins on April 28, 2013, 06:23:58 PM

Not a science more of an art I'd say.

Looks like support on that trendline isn't holding this time, can't be bothered drawing in the lines though. Thin volume, but on the market depth looks like price won't drop too much.

we're in a period of consolidation, and it's the weekend. last weekend broke a short-term trendline, too, but price simply consolidated around the $120 level until a significant breakout up.

what it is important for the bull picture is that we bounced off of the trendline on the way down, and also that we see a breakout up out of this triangle:

--arepo

afbitcoins

legendary

Activity: 2101

Merit: 1061

Not a science more of an art I'd say.

Looks like support on that trendline isn't holding this time, can't be bothered drawing in the lines though. Thin volume, but on the market depth looks like price won't drop too much.

Bitsaurus

hero member

Activity: 873

Merit: 1007

Quote from: johnblaze on April 28, 2013, 12:21:00 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: arepo on April 26, 2013, 05:33:55 AM

Quote from: afbitcoins on April 26, 2013, 05:27:21 AM

Thanks for that chart arepo

RSI looks pretty bullish I'd say

it's almost as if TA refers to functional, scientific methods. Roll Eyes

yeah. almost.

haha

- Graph of BTC price - check
- Ruler - check
- Colored marker - check
- Evidence based statements.....I'll get back to that one...

johnblaze

sr. member

Activity: 252

Merit: 250

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: arepo on April 26, 2013, 05:33:55 AM

Quote from: afbitcoins on April 26, 2013, 05:27:21 AM

Thanks for that chart arepo

RSI looks pretty bullish I'd say

it's almost as if TA refers to functional, scientific methods. Roll Eyes

yeah. almost.

haha

meangreen

member

Activity: 70

Merit: 10

the OP found atheletic support with a rubber band and a peanut shell

afbitcoins

legendary

Activity: 2101

Merit: 1061

Heres an update to that first chart

We did find support, now testing that line again

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: arepo on April 26, 2013, 03:25:59 PM

Quote from: nkspace on April 26, 2013, 06:15:29 AM

so becouse their are three points which show a matching under spike, that is considered the trend line
ahhahahahahahahha

i could show you a trend line which proves that bitcoins worth 50 dollars
that graph means nothing !

show me. 3 points makes a robust trendline...

[crickets]

GigaCoin

sr. member

Activity: 308

Merit: 251

Giga

My take on this is that it's important for btc to remain above 130 over the weekend so we can continue seeing stability into next week.

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: nkspace on April 26, 2013, 06:15:29 AM

so becouse their are three points which show a matching under spike, that is considered the trend line
ahhahahahahahahha

i could show you a trend line which proves that bitcoins worth 50 dollars
that graph means nothing !

show me. 3 points makes a robust trendline...

nkspace

newbie

Activity: 14

Merit: 0

so becouse their are three points which show a matching under spike, that is considered the trend line
ahhahahahahahahha

i could show you a trend line which proves that bitcoins worth 50 dollars
that graph means nothing !

KillaMarci

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Bitcoin Mininode...and proud!

Quote from: arepo on April 26, 2013, 06:04:54 AM

Quote from: KillaMarci on April 26, 2013, 06:03:12 AM

This is the first TA that actually sounds and looks plausible to me...good work.

(IMAGE REMOVED BECAUSE QUOTE)

This would mean a growth of ~13% per week. It won't be allowed to go under 130 by tommorow.

you've got it! Wink

that's the trendline we just caught. it's not rocket science haha

Haha yes I know Wink

I just wanted to validate it yet again using Bitcoinity. It's nice to see I can learn something from you guys. Thanks for your work!

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: KillaMarci on April 26, 2013, 06:03:12 AM

This is the first TA that actually sounds and looks plausible to me...good work.

This would mean a growth of ~13% per week. It won't be allowed to go under 130 by tommorow.

you've got it! Wink

that's the trendline we just caught. it's not rocket science haha

KillaMarci

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Bitcoin Mininode...and proud!

This is the first TA that actually sounds and looks plausible to me...good work.

This would mean a growth of ~13% per week. It won't be allowed to go under 130 by tommorow.

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: Rampion on April 26, 2013, 05:41:23 AM

I have no idea about TA, but my gut feeling is the following: if we break under $120, next bounce will be at $85ish

And I have the sensation that we will enter in mid-term bear market. Bottom will not be so low as per 2011, and the recovery won't be so slow, because the fundamentals are stronger and the media attention is still positive.

i can agree with you generally. this is a critical moment. recovery from $120 will be short-term bullish, break under $120 will be short-term bearish.

in the meantime, i found another oscillator with an even more precise trendline.

-===-

1-month 6-hour scale:

-===-

lookin good so far...

--arepo

edit: just noticed that random line on the price graph.. you can safely ignore that. i clearly need some sleep after many, many hours of daytrading Cheesy

Rampion

legendary

Activity: 1148

Merit: 1018

I have no idea about TA, but my gut feeling is the following: if we break under $120, next bounce will be at $85ish

And I have the sensation that we will enter in mid-term bear market. Bottom will not be so low as per 2011, and the recovery won't be so slow, because the fundamentals are stronger and the media attention is still positive.

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: afbitcoins on April 26, 2013, 05:27:21 AM

Thanks for that chart arepo

RSI looks pretty bullish I'd say

yeah, we took a hit but i think we're okay, mid-term.

for some fundamentals, i attribute it to a number of factors, from a growing utility to a growing userbase and increased mainstream exposure.

thanks for checking out my work

it is very cool when you can come to the same conclusion via different techniques-- it's almost as if TA refers to functional, scientific methods. Roll Eyes

--arepo

afbitcoins

legendary

Activity: 2101

Merit: 1061

Going to have to go, supposed to be working! Roll Eyes

Will leave this thread to do what it will.

afbitcoins

legendary

Activity: 2101

Merit: 1061

Thanks for that chart arepo

RSI looks pretty bullish I'd say

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

actually, i now realize that i didn't post it explicitly in the thread, as the original diagram was part of the price report, so my subscribers had a copy.

it looks something like this:

-===-

1-month 6-hour scale:

-===-

there is clearly some error in the data points (the trendline underestimates the actual support), but that bounce is indicative of finding support along a lower trend.

--arepo

afbitcoins

legendary

Activity: 2101

Merit: 1061

Quote from: arepo on April 26, 2013, 05:06:35 AM

Quote from: afbitcoins on April 26, 2013, 05:00:26 AM

Quote from: arepo on April 26, 2013, 04:55:11 AM

some constructive criticism:

this channel isn't very good. at least you have two points, but you need more for a 'robust' line. the reason for this being that a line needs only two points to be defined. that means, there will exist an arbitrary line across any two 'peaks' or 'dips'. in your picture, this is exactly what you've done.

for more robust lines, look closely. try to find a line that has three points of contact or more.

hope this helped

--arepo

Hehehe I can see why you think my line isn't really valid based on the chart I shared here, (click the link in my sig if you want my full analysis

) On a three month chart that top line has at least 5 points of contact. Three as support and now 2 as resistance the last two which you can see above. The lower line is one I hoped would be validated (and looks like it is being.)

got the fuller picture -- very good analysis, my apologies. very cool how supports become resistances. if you'd like, i've come to similar conclusions about the trend by identifying patterns in the RSI, and William's %R oscillators, you could take a look at my "arepo's" analysis thread.

I'll check out your thread, I'm always interested when I see similar conclusions based on different types of analysis

Topic: Found support where I hoped (Read 2199 times)