To roll the 10000 the chance is surely not one in 10k. I have free rools played 21,411 so far. To roll 9994 or above the chance is 0.07%, so by chance I should have hit 9994 or above ca. 15 times. As far as I remember it occurred 1 or 2 times so far.
With this "provably fair" thingy I can only check the number I rolled but not the likelihood of its occurrence and so this is completely nonsense.
The only site I rolled the 10k 2 times is from dutchycorp and I can tell you why this happened, becourse the winning is 25 cents. This is affordable for the site owner - right?
If every 10000th roll would win 200$ than freebitco would be bankrupt within one day I guess.
The odds of rolling the highest number are only one in 20k. Wheel of fortune spins count as free rolls and that will inflate your stats and make it seem like you’ve made a lot more faucet claims.
I did not use that many wof spins maybe 400 or 500 so not much inflation there so far, but where did you get that information with that one in 20k chance? Is it given on the site anywhere?
Indeed, it is not easy to find that information. You must click on
"i" in upper right corner of single WOF page, than you will see:
So it seems it is really not easy to win any item like Card/Phone/Watch
I did some excel and calculated the probabilities for winning those items:
50 Reward Points 32,93 %
500 Reward Points 0,2 %
5000 Reward Points 0,1 %
50 Lottery Tickets 32,93 %
500 Lottery Tickets 0,3 %
5000 Lottery Tickets 0,2 %
1 Golden Ticket 0,1 %
5 Golden Tickets 0,005 %
50 Golden Tickets 0,0025 %
50 Satoshi 32,93 %
500 Satoshi 0,2 %
5000 Satoshi 0,1 %
$500 Amazon Gift Card 0,000003 %
$1500 iPhone 0,0000011 %
$15000 Rolex 0,0000001 %
I think the results seem to be reasonable.
But I also did some statistics with my free btc rolls data:
I did 426 rolls within 1 month.
rolls from
886 to 1000 occured 4 times
1886 to 2000 occured 4 times
2886 to 3000 occured 3 times
3886 to 4000 occured 4 times
4886 to 5000 occured 4 times
5886 to 6000 occured 5 times
6886 to 7000 occured 3 times
7886 to 8000 occured 6 times
8886 to 9000 occured 4 times
9886 to 10000 occured 0 times
So numbers from 9886 to 10000 do not have the same probability of occurance than all the others.
This is no surprise for me but it shows how easy it is to manipulate those outcomes.
This is definitively not provably fair. Would be only if one did know the probability for the numbers 9886 to 10000.