Topic: Furthering the S.DICE / AM comparison - page 3. (Read 5408 times)

The mining profitability depends on the network difficulty, to which BFL shipping will increase it.

AM is paying dividend on 200.000 shares only until the initial investment has been paid back....only then their own 200.00 shares will be paid dividend.... That point will be reached before April 1st.... But def before mid April.

Part of the mining profitability depends on if/when BFL starts shipping.... Then of course there is selling Asics and developing next gen chips....

They've paid 0.043BTC in about 3 weeks. And you think 0.07BTC is reasonable.

I understand you're a PR person, but come on.

If you own the shares, I'll buy them from you at 0.28BTC per share.
If you don't own the shares, I'm willing to lend them to you if you want to short them. How about that?

Are you willing to put your money where your mouth is?

Because there can be only one good investment in the entire world?

As long as BFL does not significantly ship, ASICMINER will be earning a boatload from the coinbase.

Please tell me you have ASICMiner shares.
I will buy as many shares as you have for 0.28BTC per share - 2x your upper bound. 4x your lower bound which you think is more important.
Won't you make a killing based on what you consider is "reasonable"?

I think you're mixing wildeyed speculation with what is intended to be factual.

Consider the quotes above and stop getting excited. 0.07 to .14 as a current share value is, based on what we know, more than reasonable. And is not to be read as "0.14" either, that's an upper bound, nothing more. The lower bound is probably more important.

A few more things to take into consideration as to why the shares are trading at 0.65BTC right now. And why even that might be a steal if things go according to ASICMiner's plan.

1. ASICMiner has already paid 43% of initial investment value of 0.1BTC per share. Thats in less than a month's mining.

2. ASICMiner's second batch is 50TH/s. They say they will have it up and running by end of April. If this is indeed true, then the current share price is really low.

In the month of May, approximately 111,600 bitcoins will be mined.

If ASICMiner gets their total of 60TH/s up by then, they will own anywhere from 25% to 50% of that in the month of May (depending on BFL.) (I doubt they will want to get anywhere close to 50% however.)

Thats 28,000 to 56,000 BTC in profit for the month of May itself.

0.07BTC to 0.14BTC per share in one month.

This number goes down per month from then onwards - until ASICMiner comes up with a third batch to keep up with everyone else.

3. If you think that BFL is going to get delayed even further, the numbers become even sweeter.

Ah, that indeed is a good point. So the correct figure would be more like .05 to .14 rather than the .03 to .07 I proposed. There may in fact be some room for profit for those who bought at original .1 prices.

Each share earns 1/400,000 of the profits. If the profits are 88,000 BTC, then each share would earn 0.22BTC.
Net is 90% gross - that sounds ok.
But I don't understand why you assume that Bitfountain gets half of your share profits. Bitfountain owns 200,000 shares which is already accounted for.

Your error in the beginning means you are off by 50% through out all your calculations.

Please stop comparing a gamble coinmixer, where every user will lose in the long run,  with a mining endeavor, that is supporting the network.
Thank you.

Admitting net is 90% gross (which from the looks of various debts, full teams working etc won't be the case) and admitting that Bitfountain itself gets half that, we could reasonably say that ASICMINER shareholders will be earning back via dividends .1 BTC over the course of the next 8 months.

This is, as best we know, a reasonable estimate. Let's quote from the collected wisdom of this forum:



So basically: it takes ~8 months to "recoup your initial investment", provided that your initial investment is .1

With some basic present-value discounting and some very generous risk assumptions (what happens if some government raids ASICMINER DC and confiscates all gear, sometime between now and December? What happens if the entire wafer has a useful lifetime of 1000 hours under load, and no single chip makes it past that? What happens if a plane accidentally crashes into the building, or there's a shooting and the place becomes a crime scene, or etc?) it would seem the current value per share is somewhere in between 0.03 and 0.07 BTC or so. The lower bound is soft, in the sense that it may be much lower that that, but the upper bound is hard, in the sense that even if nothing bad happens, with MPBOR firmly in the 5 to 10% range .07 BTC now mean .1 BTC in December. So on purely financial terms 0.07 cannot be exceeded.

It would seem to me that all those users who haven't managed to sell out on the bubble started last month are SOL by now.

S.DICE IPOd at 3x and has been trading over 5x for months, making the dividends gains pale in comparison to stock appreciation gains (even as S.DICE has actually paid 64,396 BTC in dividends in the past 8 months).

AM sort-of brokenly IPOd at .65, under my previous lower bound estimate (*) and has about 0 chances of ever significantly appreciating in price to compensate. A sad showing, but such is life.

The moral of this story is twofold:

a. Management is the most important part of any venture whatsoever.
b. Mismanagement kills. It does not matter how good a tech team is, without good management they are doomed.

Hopefully this misadventure will be a lesson learned by the next Bitcoin enterprise, thus avoiding becoming the next originally promising but unfortunately blown Bitcoin entreprise. I think it's too late for Asicminer by now.

Sorry for everyone's loss.

(*) By the way, doesn't the mentioned lack of liquidity work wonders? What's the difference between 800 BTC traded in the first week and 10k BTC traded in the first day?