Topic: Future BTC's price (Read 661 times)
As years pass the user community is getting widened. As the userbase increase to the decrease in supply, surely the price of bitcoin will peak high. Few users have mentioned about the lack of mining leading to the drop in value of bitcoin. Once the price moves forward more users will start mining. Also more and more adoption of bitcoin can be expected to happen in the future supporting the growth of bitcoin.
In the year 2136, after the penultimate BTC halving, the block reward will be 0,00000002 BTC (2 Satoshi).
If BTC mining is still profitable, how much could be 1 BTC cost?
I don't know what the price is going to be. But if people are still mining bitcoin in 2136, there is a reason why they would be doing that. The price might be extremely high that even a satoshi is a lot for the people. And thats year 2139, high chances are people have adopted this currency which will bring more value to the coins. If BTC mining is still profitable, how much could be 1 BTC cost?
In 2136, if Bitcoin is a universal payment for the whole world, it can be of high value. No one knows when we're there, we can be very surprised.
Maybe 1 btc will have the value of all the assets, but that's just my guess. Well, we will not live, so i will not deal with it.
Maybe 1 btc will have the value of all the assets, but that's just my guess. Well, we will not live, so i will not deal with it.
I think that if Bitcoin will conyinue until 2136, then its cost will probably exceed several tens of millions of dollars, although of course such assumptions are pure fantasy, because we cannot know exactly what will happen even after 3-4 years, let alone already about what will happen in more than 100 years.
It's going to be an amazing thing to know but no one knows exactly what the future holds for bitcoin. Problems will be solved unless it hasn't given attention to be solved. In 2136 we assume bitcoin's still alive but we aren't anymore.
In the year 2136, after the penultimate BTC halving, the block reward will be 0,00000002 BTC (2 Satoshi).
If BTC mining is still profitable, how much could be 1 BTC cost?
It is impossible to know the answer to that since you are talking about a period in which no one that is here today will be able to see, but it seems you have the mistaken idea that miners only get the block reward and that is not true, the miners also get the fees from each transaction they include in the blocks they mine and while that is not enough to sustain them now this could change once bitcoin gets adopted around the world. If BTC mining is still profitable, how much could be 1 BTC cost?
I think that if Bitcoin will conyinue until 2136, then its cost will probably exceed several tens of millions of dollars, although of course such assumptions are pure fantasy, because we cannot know exactly what will happen even after 3-4 years, let alone already about what will happen in more than 100 years.
I maintain that the concept of "sound money" is not a very good one, especially if we talk about a currency aspect of money (as opposed to its store of value one). But that's kinda obvious, provided you have a half-functioning brain and do not obsess with the idea of fiat being inherently evil.
"sound money" usually means either "not prone to sudden appreciation or depreciation" or "commodity-based money". why is that a bad concept? what prevents sound money from being useful as a currency?
paper money backed by gold or silver was used as currency ever since the 13th century, and quite effectively at that
It is not a bad concept on its own
It is just the forms of money you mention (gold, silver, paper money backed by precious metals) are not suitable for a quickly expanding economy (or just quickly changing economy, for that matter). In such economy commodity-based money constantly changes its value which may give an undeserved advantage to holders (aka rentiers) while discouraging producers, i.e. those who actually create new wealth and make our lives better (and a whole host of other issues which a good textbook explains in great detail). It worked for a few millinea simply because the economies back then were not growing so fast to make it a real problem. Most of the time they were not growing at all, so it was not a problem either
But I don't know how you are going to replicate in a cryptocurrency the capacity of fiat money to adjust its supply according to the needs of the economy (see the concept of endogenous money to better understand what I'm talking about)
why does the money supply need to be adjusted at all?
Because there is an optimum amount of money given the size of an economy (after bootstrapping the money). When the economy contracts or expands, money supply should reflect these changes proportionately, otherwise it will create imbalances. The supply of fiat money mostly adjusts on its own via credit, i.e. it has a built-in mechanism for such an adjustment
No known cryptocurrency can replicate that
I maintain that the concept of "sound money" is not a very good one, especially if we talk about a currency aspect of money (as opposed to its store of value one). But that's kinda obvious, provided you have a half-functioning brain and do not obsess with the idea of fiat being inherently evil.
"sound money" usually means either "not prone to sudden appreciation or depreciation" or "commodity-based money". why is that a bad concept? what prevents sound money from being useful as a currency?
paper money backed by gold or silver was used as currency ever since the 13th century, and quite effectively at that.
But I don't know how you are going to replicate in a cryptocurrency the capacity of fiat money to adjust its supply according to the needs of the economy (see the concept of endogenous money to better understand what I'm talking about)
why does the money supply need to be adjusted at all? you seem to assume keynesian economics is the optimal model but you don't explain why. satoshi designed bitcoin with a hard cap on supply because he obviously believed keynesian economics were the wrong approach to money.
In the year 2136, after the penultimate BTC halving, the block reward will be 0,00000002 BTC (2 Satoshi).
If BTC mining is still profitable, how much could be 1 BTC cost?
If BTC mining is still profitable, how much could be 1 BTC cost?
I think that until the year 2136, the Bitcoin that we're using right now will no longer exist. There will be a better technology that will replace the payments we know today. Collectors will probably keep their Bitcoins, but they will have little value.
In 2136 there will be no dollar 
we cannot predict the price of bitcoin and especially the price of coins in crypto market. But there are more research and usage of technology working towards identifying the value and predicting based on previous growth etc took place. But I don't have any value to predict the future of BTC will see by going forward.
I consider it a issue that security through mining relies on TX fees in the future. There should be some sort of on-going emission to fund miners in the future.
I think this is a fair point. It makes the future much less predictable. There's no guarantee that the long term economic design (a hard limit on supply) pans out as expected
This question has been discussed before and with no definitive solution in sight
For example, I maintain that the concept of "sound money" is not a very good one, especially if we talk about a currency aspect of money (as opposed to its store of value one). But that's kinda obvious, provided you have a half-functioning brain and do not obsess with the idea of fiat being inherently evil. But I don't know how you are going to replicate in a cryptocurrency the capacity of fiat money to adjust its supply according to the needs of the economy (see the concept of endogenous money to better understand what I'm talking about)
In 2136 there will be no dollar
The future price of bitcoin is quite hard to determined because we are not sure if bitcoin will exist forever. But, there will be a time in the future that the price of bitcoin will become totally expensive and maybe all the people will use cryptocurrencies which may lead to increases of demand.
Exactly, it's very hard to predict the future of Bitcoin as every day there is a surprise as well as shock. Yes like you said it will become very expensive in few years also crypto will rule the entire world, crypto currency is spreading like social media for sure there might be a high demand.
The benefits that we get are certainly extraordinary, we can get a media to conduct financial transactions quickly, easily and also safely.
Crypto offers us access in the financial system in the future, by digitizing the financial system so that all financial systems in the world will be centralized.
But remember that this has the risk, we must be able to avoid negative impacts and maximize their positive impact.
within 2 years under $500 and then the death spiral begins.
You are very "optimistic", do you believe that the altcoins have more chances than Bitcoin? Or you believe in fiat money and the banking system?
within 2 years under $500 and then the death spiral begins.
Since the supply is limited and we are losing a lot BTC most often, I assume that it will at least $500k but, the matter is whether cryptocurrency is going to survive for this long time or not?
why wouldn't it survive? Other form of money like fiat has survived this long. I think cryptocurrencies and bitcoin is here to stay and I strongly believe that bitcoin will be above the amount you have speculated. I consider it a issue that security through mining relies on TX fees in the future. There should be some sort of on-going emission to fund miners in the future.
I think this is a fair point. It makes the future much less predictable. There's no guarantee that the long term economic design (a hard limit on supply) pans out as expected.
This is one of the reasons altcoins should exist: to test out different economic models. I think a predictably low but permanent inflation rate might be a better model in terms of security incentives. The main issue is predictable scarcity, not having a hard cap on supply.
In future miners will be rewarded almost exclusively with transaction fees.
The idea is that bitcoin is widely used with millions of transactions on each block, so those fees will be enough.
So theoretically, if Bitcoin really become adopted as we expect, the prices are very low now as the reward is 12.5 BTC for each block plus fees (every 10minutes). The next halving will reduce to 6.25, which will probably lead to a great price increase
The idea is that bitcoin is widely used with millions of transactions on each block, so those fees will be enough.
So theoretically, if Bitcoin really become adopted as we expect, the prices are very low now as the reward is 12.5 BTC for each block plus fees (every 10minutes). The next halving will reduce to 6.25, which will probably lead to a great price increase
I consider it a issue that security through mining relies on TX fees in the future. There should be some sort of on-going emission to fund miners in the future.
Because of some fatal flaw. If you believe that Bitcoin will succeed 100% you might get deeply disappointed. Million things can go wrong. If succeed of Bitcoin would be sure thing then everyone would just loan money and buy as much as they can. But in reality doing that could be just a suicide.
Fatal flaw? I think it's safe to say that the more time goes by, the less risk of a 'fatal flaw' there is, especially with how the developers are pretty damn good in what they do.
The risk is decreasing with time, but the risk is also non-zero and is pretty significant. The entire design is experimental and the protocol is a mere decade old. We're still finding really serious bugs in the reference implementation as of a few months ago. There's a reason Core is still in beta
The real headache is that the risk is not actually decreasing with time
If you had carefully read theymos' report, you would have noticed that the bug was introduced in Bitcoin Core 0.14.0, i.e. not so long ago. But how long ago is actually irrelevant here as this irrefutably proves that there can be new bugs not just to be found but introduced as well (the point on which theymos also focuses our attention). As you can easily guess, the possibility of these bugs doesn't decrease over time. In fact, it can actually rise as Bitcoin becomes more complex and harder to understand (read, efficiently and effectively test it)
Because of some fatal flaw. If you believe that Bitcoin will succeed 100% you might get deeply disappointed. Million things can go wrong. If succeed of Bitcoin would be sure thing then everyone would just loan money and buy as much as they can. But in reality doing that could be just a suicide.
Fatal flaw? I think it's safe to say that the more time goes by, the less risk of a 'fatal flaw' there is, especially with how the developers are pretty damn good in what they do.
The risk is decreasing with time, but the risk is also non-zero and is pretty significant. The entire design is experimental and the protocol is a mere decade old. We're still finding really serious bugs in the reference implementation as of a few months ago. There's a reason Core is still in beta.
I have a lot of faith in Bitcoin and its developers, but people are right to be skeptical.
Of course they have the right to. It their money anyways. And we all know there's not a hundred percent chance of success yet many of still believe because we're all aware of the risk that we take. I mean, if you expected success to be certain then it's your fault if you get rekt.
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