Topic: Gambling activities correlates with Bitcoin's price? (Read 745 times)

That's an interesting analogy.

But then again, it all falls down to the decision of Y. That's why I've mentioned earlier that you have to look up for multiple Live Charts. And it also depends on the person, if the trader has the skills and strategies. But I would argue that everyone has the same information, if so then why X and Y have different decisions? So, I think Live Charts still matters, you just need to find the right one--that's reliable. I'm sure a lot of traders gain profit by this very same method. I can't really prove it to you but in logic, it is quite correct.

For the year 2018 ~ 2019, the price differences are really significantly close, because it is volatile I would say, its the "stable" price of Bitcoin so far.

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I apologize, that's not what I meant.

What I'm trying to say is, whenever we have a bullish trend, people tend to gamble but whenever we have a bearish trend they wouldn't. Yes, you're correct, gambling doesn't have the volume to "contribute" to Bitcoin's price change, it might be insignificant (or even a spec), but the point is gambling activities is correlated to Bitcoin's price, but not vice versa.

Both of you are right, people will buy bitcoin for gambling, but they also buy altcoin to gamble. There is no stop for them, especially if they have an addiction to gambling. They will continue again and again without care about the bitcoin price. For people who bought altcoin, they don't need to spend a too big amount of bitcoin because altcoin price is not too high as bitcoin. That is the reason why people buy altcoin to gamble. They don't have to think about the price whenever the price is up or down.

Its impossible for those crypto gambling sites doesn't care nor think about bitcoin reputation and advantage that's why they do make one in the first place because of the possible benefits that they would able to obtain if the market tends to go uptrend.The only thing here is that they wont much be affected in terms of volatility even the gamblers do continue to play.They earn more btc when the price had slumped down even though the price goes the same way but they do know the chances on making more profits is still there.
This do oppose on players perspective but it doesn't matter though since most gamblers doesn't really care on how much they do spend out.

Gambling companies are taking advantage of the trend and adaption of bitcoin I think. They accept crypto because of its features like being transparent and decentralized. I believed that not all casino owners/companies are a believer in bitcoin they might riding with its features. In online gambling, fiat is more on disadvantage than bitcoin because of countries' restrictions. I don't know how whales do with their winnings, They might reroll it or be converted to fiat If I'm a gambler that plays on a crypto accepting website I won't convert it into fiat unless it's necessary.

I guess that you are forgetting the fact that most crypto gambling operators are true believer of bitcoin's future and they hardly go for encashing their bitcoins. I blame whale gamblers for fluctuations of bitcoin markets and definitely not the gambling houses. There could be many exceptions like a famous gambling house may start a crypto gambling business and may encash their BTCs time to time.

In every crypto gambling house, you may notice a whale who is dominating in terms of huge wagering and I believe most whales are good in market manipulations. When a whale is good in prediction of market fluctuations, then I believe it would be much easier for them to manipulate even in gambling houses with their vast BTC hoarding.

Live Charts won't really help, cause it doesn't give enough information for people to take right trading decision.
Both fundamental and technical thing are publicly available for sure but still sometimes people lose big funds or maybe an opportunity to take profit on their trade.

Let's put an example :
X - After checking the charts, X finds that tomorrow, Bitcoin price will jump hard and he decides to buy some Bitcoin.
Y - After checking the charts, Y finds that tomorrow, Bitcoin price will slightly go down and he sells out all of his Bitcoin.
Then tomorrow is coming and Bitcoin price jumps hard.

This is what I mean about information, if Y really has information to take right decision then he would have not sold his Bitcoin.

In the strong-form of market efficient hypothesis (which is likely impossible to exist), people can't really take significant profit cause everyone has same information and the price won't have a significant changes.

That is why I called crypto market is in a weak-form, perhaps in the future, at least for Bitcoin, it can changes to semi-strong which we can find that from the price changes.

Lastly, I know that nothing last forever.. and it's possible for everything to sometimes changes to others and back to the previous  conditions.

Could you please put the links about the statistic? It will surely help us to define the condition.

I don't get your explanation about a bullish trend or bearish trend.

What I understand about the trends is it relates to the entire market movement, we might see a bullish or bearish but it does not depend on gambling activities in general or the cash flow (in and out) in gambling because I believe the gambling industry does not even hold 50% of the entire crypto circulation in the space.

Just to gamble(?), they would neglect the price-exchange (fiat =>> crypto) of cryptocurrency? That's a foolish thing to do. Just by that, they already lost, what more if they lose on gambling, that's back to back messed up.

People shouldn't do such a thing. If they really wanted to gamble using crypto--don't casually convert fiat to crypto, just because you can. Just use another crypto, or if you don't have cryptos that they accept--just don't gamble.

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Yes, it does. If the gambling activities are high, then it's probably in the bullish trend, as the risk of loss would be minimal. But if it would be on the bearish trend, the number gamblers wouldn't be as many.

but nevertheless, according to statistics, it is already clear that the activity of players is falling along with the price of bitcoin.  None of the owners of Bitcoin will give their coins on the cheap.  It is to continue the game that other cryptocurrency options are provided.

Gamblers would do that so for sure the gambling sites operators are doing the same.
Both of them are playing with the value of bitcoin and not keeping bitcoin to be affected with the price volatility.
They will convert it to cash regularly and I think every casino has their ceiling amount that when they reach it, they will convert their money into fiat.

Yeah price does affect the volume of bets in a casino. When the price is starts to go high or reached a higher position recently, the gamblers have more money to gamble ("notice how I am saying more fiat money instead of coins, since gamblers bet based on the value of the coin instead of the amount of coins). So when the price is high, they are able to place bet with lower amount of coins than before (lets say they bet 10 btc which was 1000 USD, after the price rise, 10 btc is now 10,000 USD. Thus they now can place 1 BTC bet 10 times before they go bankrupt). Thus we see rise in volume.

Gambling activities do not correlates with bitcoin prices however what increases bitcoin price is demand so if gambling activities are high then it may boost the demand of bitcoin to stir up bitcoin price

It may be because of the anonymity that's why they switch from fiat to crypto currency. But there are other advantages also if you are using crypto currency than fiat, like easy and faster withdrawal, some may not need a KYC unlike in fiat most of the time they ask for KYC. But more online casinos today are asking KYC already which is using crypto or fiat doesn't matter.

Every bitcoin related activity in high number definitely will have impact on the price levels of bitcoins. For example, someone sees a winner of bitcoin gambling like a lottery winner revealing how he got easy money from BTC gambling then definitely 1% of those viewers may copy those steps for easy money. They may buy some BTC for $10 or for any least amount from LBC or from their friends to enter gambling.

I have read many bitcoiners had adopted BTC for the reason of gambling. When gambling attracts new people, there would be plenty of chances for prices to get impacted due to gambling activities.

That's not true. People can observe the Bitcoin's price via Live Charts. I don't have the time to google it and leave links for it, but there are websites that provide such information. Be warned tho, some of these websites are not accurate (sometimes)--just to create a false bullish trend. So I recommend looking up for multiple ones.


There are also price predictions, and they're also presented through graphs. Though they're just speculations, at least we can see how it will turn out in the future (tomorrow), and not be confused about something like a bubble.

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Well, you don't necessarily use Fiat to exchange into a cryptocurrency in order to gamble. So you don't have to worry about it. As they accept other cryptocurrencies as well.

Bitcoin price is not dependent on the gambling, gambling sites is just a small portion of the whole bitcoin supply. I think the reason why you noticed that is, I think some or a large group of gamblers is still looking at the price, because why they are going to gamble when the price goes up and they will win by just simply converting into fiat.

But compared to the gambling sites that are using bitcoin, the gambling sites you've mentioned comprises only a small portion of the overall crypto gambling industry. What we have to determine now is the estimated transaction of bitcoin for crypto gambling, which I don't think we can get a reliable data about it since gambling sites are not all license and they are not sharing their operational data to the public.

it's hard to get data if we are just going to rely on a data using Bitcoin as a parameter as many gambling sites uses other Cryptocurrency as well, and not to mention gambling sites that as their own coin, some examples are Tron and Eos gambling site that is dedicated to their tokens.

Right, gamblers will just gamble no matter what coin to use or what price today. Even though some gamblers have preference coin to play with, far before it, they do so because they love gambling, not because they love a specific currency.


Not sure in this topic, afraid to be off topic.

I mean, crypto market is in a weak form of market efficient hypothesis (EMH) - the price must only reflects historical price and not all information is publicly available which leads some people to have more information than others. It make short-term prices a bit random because of this gap information and let people with more information to take more advantage or profit from the market trade. In this case, most of us won't be able to clearly predict what price of an assets by tomorrow, but we can still be able to predict like what is the best price on this week or month (to take moment to buy or sell).

Even though Bitcoin fundamental information is publicly available which the market efficiency should be called semi-strong, it still looks weak for me.

1) Well, I could search for it, but isn't it more interesting if we discussed it here in the forum?
2) I don't understand this one, could you rephrase your statement?
3) Yes, it's obvious but that's not the point. No matter how small the gambling contribution (assuming) may be to Bitcoin's price, what matters is, it is correlated with it.

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Can't argue on this one.