For the sake of discussion, let's assume there is a buy wall on Paybase that's accessible to all Paycoin wallet holders.
How large would it need to be for the coin to last more than a couple of days?
How large for more than three months?
How large for more than six months?
If it can pass six months, it'll be around for a while, but how much backing do they need to get there?
I don't think it needs to be terribly large for the initial dump, considering how many HashStakers there are out there. Just pulling numbers out of my ass (hey, GAW's CEO does it, so why not me?) - Let's say they pass out 4 mil PC to Hashpointers, and around 500k are mined. I'm not sure how many hashlets have been converted, or have been sold, but let's guess 250k into perms, 250k six month, and 250k 3 month. Some people might keep coins in a normal wallet for 5%, let's say 10%. So you're looking at 3.75*.9 = 3.375 million coins in the initial dump. At $20 per,
$67.5 million for initial.
$2.5 million more for 3 months.
$7.5 million more for six months.
So, just guessing at the numbers, It would take a wall of $77.5 million to keep this coin sustainable, assuming that all large investors keep their coins more than six months.
It seems like that's reasonable. So I bought a little bit of PC on the open market. Not much, though, as my numbers are all guesses. But I think GAW has a solid shot of pulling this off.
Edit: In addition to making up the numbers, I'm assuming a return rate of 50% for hashstakers every three months.
I'm too lazy to check your math
, but assuming it's correct they still need $77.5m of revenue, unless you think the "investors" are a large charity. In other words, they will expect their money back, and then some, and on top of that HashStaker owners need to get paid their generous interest rate. That's the part that doesn't make any sense to me - why would GAW need to borrow money from their customers at such high interest rates, if they already have investors throwing 100s of millions at them. Or they could just go to a bank and get money at near zero rates, joys of the recession. The only feasible explanation I can come up with is that there are no investors other than Zen/Hashlet/Staker owners (and GAW's credit rating is crap). And since those customers are seemingly ok with any rule changes, this can go on for a long time.