Well put. We are no longer a financial buyer but a strategic one. How did the interview go?
On Mon, Aug 4, 2014 at 1:20 PM, Josh Garza wrote:
Hi Terk, thanks for all the information. Its certainty something to reflect on.
I think for now, we will put this on hold. GAW manages more hashing power then all the pools you mentioned combined. We are also confident that we will capture the majority of what we manage. So in less then 45 days we will end up with a pool thats 100,000 MH plus anyways.
Additionally, we are buying IP up of many pools all over the world. We have a high level of confidence we will lead the profitability race. Naturally, this will allow us to organically capture customers. Considering we sell the majority of all the mining gear in the world, the math is easy. Especially with our recent acquisition of BTC.com :)
As you already know, one of the ways to evaluate cost is to calculate what it would take to build it yourself.
In our case, we are a few hundred thousand from being the largest and most profitable pool in the world (by a long shot). So I think thats the better route for us at the moment.
If anything changes on your end, please let me know. And I will do that same!
Josh Garza
CEO
GAW
280 North Main Street, Suite 2
East Longmeadow, MA 01028
Toll Free: 888-978-4143
Direct Line: 413-206-2500
Fax: 413-206-7101
[email protected]
www.GAW.com
On Mon, Aug 4, 2014 at 11:48 AM, CleverMining wrote:
Hi Shiraz,
I agree that it’s hard to valuate this business and its future is uncertain, but it’s also the case with most technology startups and people in Silicon Valley invest in them all the time ;-). Here we have at least some traction, real profits, a model which proved itself and a market leader outgrowing its competitors almost by order of magnitude (104 GH/s at CM now compared to 12 GH/s at Waffle; 82 GH/s last week CM average compared to 10 GH/s Waffle average).
That said, it’s still an early stage and you are investing in what I/we are going to build out of this project, not in a balance sheet of a mature company.
As I wrote before, I plan to roll out new features and/or products which should bring the project back to 80-100 BTC daily turnover soon and more in the future. More algorithms for still significant GPU market, more partnerships with huge scrypt ASIC farms with dedicated low-latency servers for them, payouts in LTC - these three being at the top of pipeline (and also being the most obvious and/or already announced by me somewhere) and they should bring me back to 80-100 BTC daily range. But I also have some bigger plans for new features/products which should develop CM even further, make its profits bigger and make its position and future profits more stable and certain.
My goal for 12 months from now is to mine 20-30% of LTC (70-100 BTC/day), 40-70% of other scrypt/X11/etc coins (60-105 BTC/day) and 5-10% of BTC (180-360 BTC/day) = 310-565 BTC/day, everything with 2% fee = 6.2-11.3 BTC daily revenue. This will be achieved with my state of the art and blazingly fast stratum server (already in place) with a totally new frontend providing much better and realtime reporting and monitoring (planned) and the best coin-switch profitability engine on the market (already in place). I also plan to launch a related product built on top of these pools with ~200 BTC/day turnover and 1% fee = 2 BTC additional daily revenue.
As for the today’s valuation.
I didn’t have any specific number in mind as I was never thinking about selling this project. It’s bootstrapped and I like the road it’s going. If I had to think of something, I can play with numbers and get the following variants of yearly profits:
A) current 50 BTC/day * 2% fee * 365 days * $600 BTCUSD minus $2500*12 servers cost = $189,000/y profits
B) solid 100 BTC/day * 2% fee * 365 days * $600 BTCUSD minus $2500*12 servers cost = $408,000/y profits
C) planned low (310 BTC * 2% fee + 200 BTC * 1% fee) * 365 days * $600BTCUSD minus $3500*12 servers cost = $1,765,800/y
D) planned high (565 BTC * 2% fee + 200 BTC * 1% fee) * 365 days * $600BTCUSD minus $3500*12 servers cost = $2,882,700/y
All of these variants have their different probabilities of happening, but I probably don’t need to explain it to you.
Based on the above I would like to valuate CM at $4M which is 10x of the solid 100 BTC/day turnover (which I believe is a safe estimation and very probable to achieve within 2-3 months), so it would cost you $2M to acquire 49%. What I’m selling at this price is the attempt to drive this business to D) within a year.
Cheers,
--
Terk
On Tuesday, 22 July 2014 at 21:06, Shiraz Moosajee wrote:
> Hi Terk,
> I have "run the numbers" using all the usual valuation models and have to say that you are pretty unique! Normally, I get a valuation distribution around a mean which is a good basis for an offer but with CM you are all over the place - the wide distribution being a reflection of the limited operating history and the potentially large range of future outcomes.
>
> That said, I think the best way to move forward is to ask you what kind of number you had in mind?
>
> If its better to jump onto a call then let me know some times that work for you and I'll get it organized.
>
> Cheers
> Shiraz
>
>
> On Sat, Jul 19, 2014 at 9:27 AM, CleverMining wrote:
>>>
>>> I noticed that the total payout so far has been 11,528 so I am guessing that you have been mining for less than a year. Is that correct?
>> You have full hashrate history here on this chart: http://clevermining.com/hashrate (switch tab to Daily Hashrate).
>>
>> Public launch was at Feb 4th. So we’ve been mining for six and half months, including the early days of getting a traction. CM wasn’t neither the first nor the second coin-switch pool on the market but I managed to grow it to be the biggest one, with hashrate more than 4x bigger than the second biggest coin-switch pool.
>>
>>
>>> How many more years of mining do you think you can keep it going?
>> As long as there will be altcoins to mine.
>>
>>
>>> Also, why has the rate fallen from the 80-100 btc range?
>>
>> The pool has been suffering from serious attacks which took as back two months and we missed the early influx of ASIC miners. At the same time mining profitability dropped a lot - as it always do. In the result our hashrate didn’t grow fast enough to make up for lowered profitability. I have solved this situation recently and you can see hashrate growth started again a month ago. I am preparing some new features and developments which should take us back to the 80-100 BTC range soon.
>>
>> --
>> Terk
>>
>> On Saturday, 19 July 2014 at 21:33, Shiraz Moosajee wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>> Thanks for the revisions. A couple of questions:
>>> I noticed that the total payout so far has been 11,528 so I am guessing that you have been mining for less than a year. Is that correct?
>>> How many more years of mining do you think you can keep it going?
>>> Also, why has the rate fallen from the 80-100 btc range?
>>>
>>>
>>> Regards
>>>
>>> Shiraz
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Last 30-days mining average is 63 BTC/day, not 50 BTC/day. Also, I have no idea why you subtracted 10% costs twice. I’d say we should look at 63 BTC * 365 days * $624 BTCUSD (today’s Bitstamp) * 0,02 = $286,977 yearly revenue minus 10% costs = $258,280 yearly profit / cash flow.
>>>
>>> This is not considering my recent development of stuff which will launch soon and should bring daily mining volume back to 80-100 BTC range and yearly profit to $330k+/y.
>>>
>>> Let’s assume $250k/y for now (we can try to pinpoint more detailed number at a later stage).
>>>
>>> --
>>> Terk
>>>
>>> On Friday, 18 July 2014 at 06:11, Shiraz Moosajee wrote:
>>> >
>>> > Thanks Terk. So I think we are looking at a cash flow based valuation. I have put together a simple model based on your emails and from what I could figure out from the numbers on your site, which is attached. Could you take a look and make any corrections? We can then look at applying a multiple range to that.
>>> >
>>> > Cheers
>>> > Shiraz
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > On Thu, Jul 17, 2014 at 11:34 AM, CleverMining wrote:
>>> >>
>>> >> Hello Shiraz,
>>> >>
>>> >> Financial operating costs aren’t that high and most of the costs is just my work. You can take my 2% fee and consider my net results being at ~90% of gross revenue. This should give you a general idea and let me know what range of numbers do you have in mind. If we think alike, then we can proceed to work on more detailed data.
>>> >>
>>> >> --
>>> >> Terk
>>> >>
>>> >> On Thursday, 17 July 2014 at 23:27, Shiraz Moosajee wrote:
>>> >>>
>>> >>> Good Morning Terk,
>>> >>> Josh had asked me to jump in on the financial aspects that you asked about. Generally, we use a couple of metrics to come up with a value and an offer. Looking at the P/E ratio you mentioned, I wanted to clarify when you say Earnings whether you mean the Net Operating Income of the business or the Revenues you earn from the 2% or floating fee?
>>> >>>
>>> >>> Additionally, any other financial information, like an income statement, that you are willing to share would be helpful. The more we understand about the business, typically the stronger the offer we can make.
>>> >>>
>>> >>> Cheers
>>> >>> Shiraz
>>> >>>
>>> >>>
>>> >>> Shiraz Moosajee
>>> >>> Chief Financial Officer
>>> >>> GAW Miners
>>> >>> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
>>> >>> From: Josh Garza
>>> >>> Date: Wed, Jul 16, 2014 at 8:29 PM
>>> >>> Subject: Fwd: Re: Continued Conversation
>>> >>> To: Shiraz Moosajee
>>> >>>
>>> >>> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
>>> >>> From: "CleverMining"
>>> >>> Date: Jul 16, 2014 1:47 PM
>>> >>> Subject: Re: Continued Conversation
>>> >>> To: "Josh Garza"
>>> >>> Cc:
>>> >>>
>>> >>> So what range of P/E ratio do you have in mind for valuing CleverMining at its current state?
>>> >>>
>>> >>> --
>>> >>> Terk
>>> >>>
>>> >>> On Thursday, 17 July 2014 at 01:42, Josh Garza wrote:
>>> >>>>
>>> >>>> We manage over 100k MHs and have multiple times over that that we have sold.
>>> >>>>
>>> >>>>
>>> >>>> Josh Garza
>>> >>>> CEO
>>> >>>> GAW
>>> >>>> 280 North Main Street, Suite 2
>>> >>>> East Longmeadow, MA 01028
>>> >>>>
>>> >>>> Toll Free: 888-978-4143
>>> >>>> Direct Line: 413-206-2500
>>> >>>> Fax: 413-206-7101
>>> >>>> [email protected]
>>> >>>>
>>> >>>> www.GAW.com
>>> >>>>
>>> >>>>
>>> >>>>
>>> >>>> On Wed, Jul 16, 2014 at 1:40 PM, CleverMining wrote:
>>> >>>>>
>>> >>>>> Could you answer me about your current and ordered/pending delivery hashrate - the one which you control and can point to a pool of your choice?
>>> >>>>>
>>> >>>>> --
>>> >>>>> Terk
>>> >>>>>
>>> >>>>> On Thursday, 17 July 2014 at 01:35, Josh Garza wrote:
>>> >>>>>>
>>> >>>>>> Hi Terk,
>>> >>>>>>
>>> >>>>>> With a little but of research on my with google, think you will see I am pretty serious.
>>> >>>>>>
>>> >>>>>> I agree with your point about getting to it. I can sit around all day and guess at where you want to be. But why don’t you tell me, what would it ale to make what I suggested bellow happen?
>>> >>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>
>>> >>>>>> Josh Garza
>>> >>>>>> CEO
>>> >>>>>> GAW
>>> >>>>>> 280 North Main Street, Suite 2
>>> >>>>>> East Longmeadow, MA 01028
>>> >>>>>>
>>> >>>>>> Toll Free: 888-978-4143
>>> >>>>>> Direct Line: 413-206-2500
>>> >>>>>> Fax: 413-206-7101
>>> >>>>>> [email protected]
>>> >>>>>>
>>> >>>>>> www.GAW.com
>>> >>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>
>>> >>>>>> On Wed, Jul 16, 2014 at 1:33 PM, CleverMining wrote:
>>> >>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>> Hi Josh,
>>> >>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>> This might work, providing that numbers will be large enough in both of categories which you would like to bring to the table (cash and hashpower). Forgive me for being skeptical but I had more than two dozen acquisition or investment inquiries which all ended with rather laughable offers. I also had almost a dozen different partnership proposals from companies claiming to bring 100 GHs of hashpower which ended up contributing just 1-15 GHs.
>>> >>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>> Most of bitcointalk-entrepreneurs are trying to look as much bigger and more serious than they really are. I am by no means suggesting that you are one of them, but I wouldn’t like to waste time mine or yours if we found that our expectations are too far away.
>>> >>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>> So let’s get straight to the point, establish some baseline and check wether we think in compatible numbers - and if yes, let’s catch on the phone and discuss ideas on how this thing might work.
>>> >>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>> Most of my numbers are transparent and available on the webpage, so you probably know more or less my financials - but please ask me a question if you think something is not clear enough. I’d like to know more about your offer.
>>> >>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>> 1) What are the $ numbers for the things you mentioned in your mail (my cashout for acquiring 51% of CM, my fixed salary afterwards, funds for growing CM further).
>>> >>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>> 2) What is your current scrypt hashpower amount which you control and can point to a pool of your choice (as opposed to only hosted by you but controlled by users who purchased/rented miners); How it will change in one month and three months (please include only already purchased/ordered hardware which you wait for being manufactured or delivered, not your planned purchases; you can share your plans as a separate number).
>>> >>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>> Thanks,
>>> >>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>> --
>>> >>>>>>> Terk
>>> >>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>> On Thursday, 17 July 2014 at 01:07, Josh Garza wrote:
>>> >>>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>>> Hi Terk,
>>> >>>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>>> Continuing our conversation
>>> >>>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>>> I don’t have a set plan in mind. Mining that a deal with you would mean we would keep the fee structure in place. There would be no value in changing it, because you already have business if you have captured. In that scenario, we could just tripling your/our business as it would become the default pool of the combined companies.
>>> >>>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>>> The "no fee scenario" would be if we got in the business ourselves and competed. In that scenario, we would just bring some people on to run it (or buy a smaller one) and run it as a way to drive new business to our hardware sales.
>>> >>>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>>> I prefer the first model. There is more upside in it. If we were to do a deal, we could immediately grow the business, and both of us would make more cash.
>>> >>>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>>> So here is how I would think it would work.
>>> >>>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>>> Assuming we did a deal. We would buy the majority of the company. You would run is as the President of the CM division. You would have a guaranteed salary and a bonus structure based on the revenue of the business. Naturally, you would still have a large portion of equity in the company.
>>> >>>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>>> For modeling purposes, when we grow the business two fold, your 49% equity would be worth the same amount. Plus you have the cash you made from selling, a stable salary, still earn money from the upside of growth. Additionally, since my company is backed by the largest Bond Firm in the world (Cantor Fitzgerald) you would have access to more resources to grow the platform.
>>> >>>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>>> Seems like a win win, please let me know your thoughts. Also, we could jump on the phone if you want. Thanks!
>>> >>>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>>> Josh Garza
>>> >>>>>>>> CEO
>>> >>>>>>>> GAW
>>> >>>>>>>> 280 North Main Street, Suite 2
>>> >>>>>>>> East Longmeadow, MA 01028
>>> >>>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>>> Toll Free: 888-978-4143
>>> >>>>>>>> Direct Line: 413-206-2500
>>> >>>>>>>> Fax: 413-206-7101
>>> >>>>>>>> [email protected]
>>> >>>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>>> www.GAW.com
>>> >>>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>>> “The information contained in this email message may be confidential. If you are not the intended recipient any use, distribution, disclosure or copying of this information is prohibited. If you receive this email in error, please tell us by return email and destroy this communication and any attachments from your system.”
>>> >>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>
>>> >>>>>>
>>> >>>>>> “The information contained in this email message may be confidential. If you are not the intended recipient any use, distribution, disclosure or copying of this information is prohibited. If you receive this email in error, please tell us by return email and destroy this communication and any attachments from your system.”
>>> >>>>>
>>> >>>>>
>>> >>>>
>>> >>>>
>>> >>>> “The information contained in this email message may be confidential. If you are not the intended recipient any use, distribution, disclosure or copying of this information is prohibited. If you receive this email in error, please tell us by return email and destroy this communication and any attachments from your system.”
>>> >>>
>>> >>>
>>> >>>
>>> >>>
>>> >>> “The information contained in this email message may be confidential. If you are not the intended recipient any use, distribution, disclosure or copying of this information is prohibited. If you receive this email in error, please tell us by return email and destroy this communication and any attachments from your system.”
>>> >>
>>> >>
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > “The information contained in this email message may be confidential. If you are not the intended recipient any use, distribution, disclosure or copying of this information is prohibited. If you receive this email in error, please tell us by return email and destroy this communication and any attachments from your system.”
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > Attachments:
>>> > - CleverMining.xlsx
>>>
>>> “The information contained in this email message may be confidential. If you are not the intended recipient any use, distribution, disclosure or copying of this information is prohibited. If you receive this email in error, please tell us by return email and destroy this communication and any attachments from your system.”
>>
>
>
> “The information contained in this email message may be confidential. If you are not the intended recipient any use, distribution, disclosure or copying of this information is prohibited. If you receive this email in error, please tell us by return email and destroy this communication and any attachments from your system.”
“The information contained in this email message may be confidential. If you are not the intended recipient any use, distribution, disclosure or copying of this information is prohibited. If you receive this email in error, please tell us by return email and destroy this communication and any attachments from your system.”
