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Topic: Geez! You know this chart, guys?! - page 2. (Read 4253 times)

hero member
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Trust me!
August 08, 2014, 10:08:09 AM
#33
hm, it seems right now we're in the "investment memory is long" phase, and have yet to reach final capitulation.



That's my impression, too. But one should be careful, to build up trading strategies on such assumptions. My personal conclusion is to hold on breathe, not to sell but also not buy, waiting if capitulation happens or not. Overall market sentiment is looking confused and puzzled.

There could be some kind of shock upwards, that'll burn enough shorts, and when the volume goes back up and the rallye manages to gain speed, we may as well be in another full-blown bull market again. Only trade on your assumptions, if you're ready to lose, as well!
hero member
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August 08, 2014, 10:06:42 AM
#32
Interesting! So you are basically implying that we may still be in for the 'really big' bubble that will make the previous ones look like small spikes. But the outcome of that mega-bubble will then decide about the future of bitcoin?

I don't know! ;-)

Bitcoin is very different from the NASDAQ, but humans and their emotions like greed and fear are the same.

Yeah that's basically it! All the trading is fueled by greed, after all. It doesn't matter if it's stocks, currencies or whatever. The patterns and behaviorisms remain the same for the most part!
member
Activity: 84
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August 08, 2014, 10:00:48 AM
#31
hm, it seems right now we're in the "investment memory is long" phase, and have yet to reach final capitulation.



That's my impression, too. But one should be careful, to build up trading strategies on such assumptions. My personal conclusion is to hold on breathe, not to sell but also not buy, waiting if capitulation happens or not. Overall market sentiment is looking confused and puzzled.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
Trust me!
August 08, 2014, 09:46:22 AM
#30
So are we going up or down?
I can't understand if I should enter now or wait for the final capitulation.

Waiting for final capitulation isn't working. "YOU" have to basically capitulate and lose faith in Bitcoin. When that happens, the capitulation is there. Everyone knows about bubbles, about capitulation about non-emotional trading, and yet no one actually manages to adhere to those things except for traders who know their business! It's interesting from a psychological point of view!
sr. member
Activity: 260
Merit: 250
August 08, 2014, 09:42:22 AM
#29
hm, it seems right now we're in the "investment memory is long" phase, and have yet to reach final capitulation.

legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1000
August 08, 2014, 05:31:27 AM
#28
It looks a lot like "The Chart"  Cheesy Cool



To be honest, though: Bitcoin hasn't seen that sharp corrections. I know those charts are exaggerated and are only supposed to illustrate a certain movement, or behavior, but a correction to levels at the start of before the bubble even began, is unseen when it comes to Bitcoin. Wait, I may be wrong... 2012?

What about the drop from $266 to $50, that also matches the bubble chart pretty good
hero member
Activity: 504
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Moderator
August 08, 2014, 03:55:04 AM
#27
i dont understandi really want to understand . its mean price will raise or fall ?


9000$ in 8 weeks! Max. 72 hours left to buy below 600$. Sell your kids, sell your car and house, leverage to the max.GO ALL FUCKING IN!
newbie
Activity: 15
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August 08, 2014, 03:45:30 AM
#26
i dont understandi really want to understand . its mean price will raise or fall ?
Buo
member
Activity: 112
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August 08, 2014, 02:04:09 AM
#25

Yeah in this forum we are all writing worthless speculations, but sometimes it's an entertaining reading Smiley
jr. member
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newbie
Activity: 42
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August 08, 2014, 01:37:56 AM
#23
So are we going up or down?
I can't understand if I should enter now or wait for the final capitulation.
sr. member
Activity: 644
Merit: 260
August 08, 2014, 01:16:16 AM
#22
I don't think that the final capitulation is going to happen, every chart is different from the others because there's no pattern which can predict what will happen in the future.
member
Activity: 65
Merit: 10
August 07, 2014, 07:32:51 PM
#20

I know those charts are exaggerated and are only supposed to illustrate a certain movement, or behavior


It's too easy to try to make real charts fit these exaggerated charts. I doubt the real charts are ever a perfect match to them.
member
Activity: 84
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August 07, 2014, 07:27:52 PM
#19
Interesting! So you are basically implying that we may still be in for the 'really big' bubble that will make the previous ones look like small spikes. But the outcome of that mega-bubble will then decide about the future of bitcoin?

I don't know! ;-)

Bitcoin is very different from the NASDAQ, but humans and their emotions like greed and fear are the same.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
Trust me!
August 07, 2014, 07:17:49 PM
#18
The NASDAQ bubble has developed over several years. To compare those two in the bigger picture (as you do) you should look at the NASDAQ years 94 - 98. So the real boom has not even started.

But this very, very speculative. It depends all on the timeframe we choose.



Interesting! So you are basically implying that we may still be in for the 'really big' bubble that will make the previous ones look like small spikes. But the outcome of that mega-bubble will then decide about the future of bitcoin?
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
August 07, 2014, 07:11:40 PM
#17
To be honest, though: Bitcoin hasn't seen that sharp corrections. I know those charts are exaggerated and are only supposed to illustrate a certain movement...

Your quoted bubble is an illustration, the other picture looks like the NASDAQ.

Yeah but if we compare Bitcoin bubbles to past bubbles from the regular good old financial sector, we can see for example that the Bitcoin bubbles don't go as far down as the Dot Com bubble did after it went bust. The whole ecosystem took years to recover. Bitcoin remains at about 2-4x pre-bubble-prices

The NASDAQ bubble has developed over several years. To compare those two in the bigger picture (as you do) you should look at the NASDAQ years 94 - 98. So the real boom has not even started. It depends all on the timeframe we choose.

But this very, very speculative.

hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
Trust me!
August 07, 2014, 06:51:56 PM
#16
To be honest, though: Bitcoin hasn't seen that sharp corrections. I know those charts are exaggerated and are only supposed to illustrate a certain movement...

Your quoted bubble is an illustration, the other picture looks like the NASDAQ.

Yeah but if we compare Bitcoin bubbles to past bubbles from the regular good old financial sector, we can see for example that the Bitcoin bubbles don't go as far down as the Dot Com bubble did after it went bust. The whole ecosystem took years to recover. Bitcoin remains at about 2-4x pre-bubble-prices
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
August 07, 2014, 06:46:00 PM
#15
To be honest, though: Bitcoin hasn't seen that sharp corrections. I know those charts are exaggerated and are only supposed to illustrate a certain movement...

Your quoted bubble is an illustration, the other picture looks like the NASDAQ.
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
August 07, 2014, 06:41:41 PM
#14
But if you don't artificially compress it to meet your views, it's pretty clear those two charts do not match at all.

Neither chart has a timescale associated, therefore compressing the Bitcoin chart doesn't alter the relevance of the trend data... Since the chart is just a representation of a typical bubble cycle it actually makes sense to change the timescale of the Bitcoin chart to where it matches the trend closest.

Of course, neither chart is really valuable for predicting the future price of Bitcoin when the market is so illiquid that even modestly wealthy single entities can be major market movers; that alone makes it utterly unpredictable...

Very reasonable posting. Even if this chart was posted as a joke or for trolling, it shows a typical development of a bubble. Each bubble has a proper progress and second capitulation can't be ruled out. Analyzing trading, the hard resistances etc. I give it a good chance, but it's no obligation.
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