Topic: Glad thats over (Read 2946 times)

Quote from: mobodick on August 21, 2012, 03:19:41 PM

But it isn't done yet. Pirate hasn't paid everyone back yet. If he does, it will most likely result in a flooding of the market which will drop the price. If he runs off, the market will rally as everyone who invested with him tries to get back into the game.

That seems like a fairly baseless assumption to me.

How so? If people get their coins back, do you not think that many of them will sell to try and get out?

Quote from: Faraday on August 21, 2012, 03:34:19 PM

But it isn't done yet. Pirate hasn't paid everyone back yet. If he does, it will most likely result in a flooding of the market which will drop the price. If he runs off, the market will rally as everyone who invested with him tries to get back into the game.

Meh, price will go down either way.

Why do you think it will go down if he runs off?

Loss of confidence, hampering the bubble we had.
I think the value without megabulls is below $10.

While some may lose confidence, I think there is a fair sized group of people that will want to make back what they lost.

Also, jwzguy, while yes, there are many who are people like you who are investing because of a loss of confidence in fiat, there are others who invested purely to make a profit. Since they will have made significant profits thanks to Pirate, I think that many of them will want to get out of this somewhat volatile market so that they don't risk losing these profits.

jwzguy

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Because the only reason they bought the bitcoins was to invest for the interest rates? (I'm not saying all pirate investors were like this, but some must have been.)

Why would anyone think it was the majority. You're not invested in Bitcoin but you decided to take the leap because of an extremely risky HYIP opportunity? I would think that's almost no one.

Quote from: mobodick on August 21, 2012, 03:19:41 PM

Loss of confidence, hampering the bubble we had.
I think the value without megabulls is below $10.

Obviously if you remove a big chunk of the the population that values Bitcoin, the market price drops. But you can't. So the only value that matters is the one that reflects the behavior of the entire population.

jwzguy

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Quote from: CoinDiver on August 21, 2012, 03:29:31 PM

Simple economics. You increase the monetary base, the value of a unit of currency goes down.

Further more, people will sell out of fear that everyone else will sell. Look at the charts, it will only take a fraction of that 500k BTC to make a significant drop in the rate.

Except there wouldn't be an increase in the monetary base. People are just getting loans paid back.

Some people may sell out of that fear - their loss. The charts only show the current orders on the books. They do not reflect the entire user base by any stretch.

The longer this payout takes, the more academic this conversation is, though.

alan2here

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Quote from: CoinDiver on August 21, 2012, 03:29:31 PM

Simple economics. You increase the monetary base, the value of a unit of currency goes down.

Further more, people will sell out of fear that everyone else will sell. Look at the charts, it will only take a fraction of that 500k BTC to make a significant drop in the rate.

It's not out of circulation when pirate has it, is it. Isn't he using it to buy and sell too?

mobodick

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Quote from: mobodick on August 21, 2012, 03:19:41 PM

But it isn't done yet. Pirate hasn't paid everyone back yet. If he does, it will most likely result in a flooding of the market which will drop the price. If he runs off, the market will rally as everyone who invested with him tries to get back into the game.

That seems like a fairly baseless assumption to me.

How so? If people get their coins back, do you not think that many of them will sell to try and get out?

Quote from: jwzguy on August 21, 2012, 03:25:28 PM

But it isn't done yet. Pirate hasn't paid everyone back yet. If he does, it will most likely result in a flooding of the market which will drop the price. If he runs off, the market will rally as everyone who invested with him tries to get back into the game.

Meh, price will go down either way.

Why do you think it will go down if he runs off?

Loss of confidence, hampering the bubble we had.
I think the value without megabulls is below $10.

Faraday

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Quote from: jwzguy on August 21, 2012, 03:25:28 PM

But it isn't done yet. Pirate hasn't paid everyone back yet. If he does, it will most likely result in a flooding of the market which will drop the price. If he runs off, the market will rally as everyone who invested with him tries to get back into the game.

That seems like a fairly baseless assumption to me.

How so? If people get their coins back, do you not think that many of them will sell to try and get out?

Why would they? If they get paid back, it's not like they got burned.

Because the only reason they bought the bitcoins was to invest for the interest rates? (I'm not saying all pirate investors were like this, but some must have been.)

jwzguy

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I see absolutely no reason they would want to. I sure wouldn't. Fiat's going down in value every day, why do you think I invested in BTC in the first place? That wouldn't change because I got out of a HYIP without getting burned. (Hypothetically, I didn't invest.)

We're talking about an entire population, and while of course there may be some people who overextended themselves to take advantage of the interest and desperately need some cash, I wouldn't expect it to be the majority.

alan2here

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True elosk.

CoinDiver

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Simple economics. You increase the monetary base, the value of a unit of currency goes down.

Further more, people will sell out of fear that everyone else will sell. Look at the charts, it will only take a fraction of that 500k BTC to make a significant drop in the rate.

elosk

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But it isn't done yet. Pirate hasn't paid everyone back yet. If he does, it will most likely result in a flooding of the market which will drop the price. If he runs off, the market will rally as everyone who invested with him tries to get back into the game.

That seems like a fairly baseless assumption to me.

How so? If people get their coins back, do you not think that many of them will sell to try and get out?

Why would they? If they get paid back, it's not like they got burned.

True, and this is purely speculation, but I believe that after having someone else sitting on their coins for so long and after making large profits, that people will be inclined to convert at least some of their coin to fiat

jwzguy

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