Topic: [GLBSE] Diablo Insurance - Butterfly Labs BitForce SC Insurance (7,829:30,903) (Read 7567 times)

Cool... Not too many shares of succeed were sold.

Its already been decided. BFL has failed to produce any SC units at all, and still claim they're coming; they have clearly failed and are in default of their obligations to their investors. As the contract/policy for this insurance stated they must produce these units by the end of Oct 31st and they did not: the fail insurance will pay out.

The problem is nefario (owner of GLBSE) refuses to release the shareholder lists to asset issuers, so I can't payout until he does.

The entire pool was 38.732 BTC, so the final payout will be 0.00125 BTC per share of fail.

Sales are now closed.

Final tally:
30,903 shares sold of DI.BFLSC.Fail
7,829 shares sold of DI.BFLSC.Success

We will know in one month if BFL succeeds or not.

Thank you for this update.   

Nefario was trolled into believing I was stealing from DMC instead of actually looking at my account and noticing Ive never withdrawn BTC from my DMC subaccount.

Probably something to do with the enormous clusterfuck that was diablo mining company...

Why was your account locked?

My GLBSE account has finally been unlocked.

DI.BFLSC sales end October 1st, so if you're going to buy in, buy in now.

27,403 shares sold of DI.BFLSC.Fail
7,829 shares sold of DI.BFLSC.Success

I would not pay out until October 31st, I would only halt share sales. The same goes for if BFL shipped today, share sales also halt.

Your OP doesn't allow you stop selling shares before october 1st - and your model doesn't allow people to react to new information becoming available.

Say BFL announced today "it's looking unlikely we'll be able to ship on time."   That's not enough to settle the bet - but definitely adds a lot of weight to one side of it.

Would you then want to lock shares?  If so then where do you draw the line? If not, then buying shares at any time before significant new information becoems available is a mug's game - with no benefit for early adopters (just an opportunity cost of tied up funds + the certainty they'll be gamed by others once more information becomes available).

Your model fails because it gives no benefit for early adoption - just massive penalties.  You should have used a model like the one I described previously - where initial prices for each side of the bet are determined on current knowledge then the market allows adjustment of position as new information is revealed.

Shares were to be stop being sold the second it becomes October 1st. If BFL were to announce they failed before then, sales would have been halted as well.

Because of nefario, if BFL were to announce their failure, I cannot halt sales.

First we had zhou tong, then we had pirate, now we have nefario. Does this shit ever end?

Yeah this is why this is horribly organised.  As it stands BFL coul announce they won't be able to ship until November (guaranteeing the .fail stock wins) and people could still continue buying more .fail stocks right up until all were sold - meaning no real profit for anyone who actually invested at the start.

I'd suggest if/when nefario unlocks the account, no further shares are sold - so at least those who have bought shares so far get a fair bet.

The correct way to do this would have been to issue a relatively small number of each share (identical for both) then sell them into bid-walls at a predefined date/time (with a minimum value of 0.001 or whatever per share).  All cash raised would then be dividended (less fee) to the winning share at end of october.

Shares in both sides of the bet could then be actively traded all the way up to settlement as new information emerged - with one zeroing and the other reaching a value equal to (total capital raised - fees)/total shares of both issues once information emerged settling it conclusively one way or the other.  That would have encouraged early speculation, ongoing speculation and also removed the possibility of shares being issued to self/friends by Diablo once the result was known.  It would also have added liquidity for speculators.

Nice idea - terrible execution.

Please note: nefario has locked my GLBSE account and most likely stolen the backing money of the insurance fund. Until this is resolved, do not buy any more shares of DI.BFLSC.

25,185 shares sold of DI.BFLSC.Fail
7,428 shares sold of DI.BFLSC.Success

I really like the general idea, but, with a constant price and an enormous supply of shares on both sides -
I see no rational reason to buy this until shortly before "judgement day".

-rph

Either people who think BFL will succeed, or people who need to insure their non-BFL assets.

Who is buying the success ones? 

I bought stocks in fail, this is why lol

Butterfly Labs Inc [email protected]
   
Aug 6 (3 days ago)
      
to me
Hi Daniel,

It is too early to know how long it will take. Several people are working on them, but we don't know how quickly they will be going out.

Kind regards,
Alicia\BF Labs Inc.

Then need DOZENS not several lol.

24,680 shares sold of DI.BFLSC.Fail
6,390 shares sold of DI.BFLSC.Success

No way of knowing, really.