- the reward will drop to 25.
Yes, in 6 months. but I don't think waiting for it while paying 150% annual interest rate is for your best interest.
And the lenders who earn this interest actually take as much risks as any where else someone should have to take to earn that much.
- the difficulty is going up, wait for ASIC to start "testing".
There can be no big advantage for the first orders, if BFL runs the ASIC for a week to "test stress them".
There are still lots of GPU miners. when the ASIC joins in, the GPU miners will leave the mining business first, which will ease the steps of difficulty increase at the very beginning stage, like you said, "test" stage.
the difficulty adjust for every 2 weeks. if the BFL test the ASIC for one week, the production of the existing mining rigs won't be influenced very much.
- if any other ASIC is coming before BFL you are all broke.
ASIC is realistic but with high barrier. One should take lots of money to develop it. That's why some of the really early investors of bitcoin, who should have made lots of money, have to fund their bitcoin R&D through pre-payment and equity financing.
A secret ASIC R&D team? less than 1% possible. So, I take the risk buy in the dip you created. what's your evaluation of the possibility that there is a secret ASIC R&D team and they can do faster job than BFL?
I encourage you to go to the lending section, there are offers with 2% weekly guaranteed, which is better the any mining bond will ever pay.
You are not risk on the lending section with the money you get from selling the shares borrowed from people, are you?
We will see my friend! Now, can you lend some GIGAMINING?