Topic: Going to sleep, wake me when it's $100k (Read 1900 times)

That is too bad. You are responsible for your choices and how you understand things that are said.  I thought that I tend to be pretty clear in what I am saying, yet surely sometimes it might not be understood, which I can ONLY spend so much time dumbing down what I say when it is not clear to some folks that they should get started investing into bitcoin as soon as possible for their own good.. I don't personally give any shits if they want to do things against their own interests, but most times if someone has at least a 4-year timeline it would be better to get started investing into bitcoin rather than not.  5-25% of their income, 5%-25% of their quasi-liquid investment portfolio or some other reasonable amount that works of for them... and if they failed to get started yesterday, then today would be the next best time to get started.


That is the point.  Each person has to choose what is good for themselves, and most likely it is going to continue to be good to figure out a way to invest into bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer, yet everyone has to figure out his circumstances and his timeline.

I can see no reason investing in bitcoin less than 10 years unless there is some age considerations, but yeah, I am not in a position to know the 9 individual factors of others.

Each person has to figure that stuff out, including if he might be very young and needing to attend university or engage in some other kind of education that could improve their income prospects, then that is on him to figure out if his personal educational/professional skills might be more important of a focus in his life at any given moment that he finds himself.  He has his time, energy and value to expend and to choose how to expend it.


You seem to be wanting to quibble about amounts, and you have to figure out amounts within your budget, so whether you are aggressive or whimpy does not have to do with the amount that you make but instead about how much you are spending within your discretionary income. If you don't have discretionary income, then you should not be investing into bitcoin...

If you are investing into bitcoin with money you need for your expenses or other aspects of your life in less than 4 years (minimum) then you are trading and/or gambling rather than investing, so frequently, being able to hold or to continue to invest into bitcoin is to make sure that you are spending within your discretionary income so that you are not going to be needing that money for more than 4 years and you also could end up 100% losing that money if bitcoin does not end up performing.

So instead of buying an ice cream cone or smoking a cigarette or drinking a beer, maybe that money is put into bitcoin, so similar to the ice cream, cigarette or beer, you can consider the money consumed.. so you are not going to need to tap into it.. yet with bitcoin we hopefully have analyzed bitcoin sufficiently well and have developed some confidence that you might be able to benefit from your investment into bitcoin in the future, as compared with the consumption item that you could have spent that same invested money.


On the internet, we might not agree how to present matters or how to talk about matters. You seem to whine a lot about down, and you seem to have whimpy investor ideas in regards to bitcoin as if you don't understand it, and you want to trade it.  You can do what you like, yet when you are whining, sometimes that is going to spark comment from others, whether from me or from some other forum member reading your comments.  Each of us chooses whether to respond or how to post, and surely other members might not like the contents of our post or our tone, so we cannot control the tone and/or the responses of other members.  Surely I don't always agree with other members, and they don't always agree with me, so sometimes there can be back and forthe battles that repeat.  Each of us can choose whether to respond or how to respond, whether the post is directed at us or not.

If you keep whining about the BTC price going down or that a lot of BTC holders or selling, then there are likely going to be times in which you are correct, yet even your being correct might be a BIG so fucking what, especially if someone might be new to bitcoin, it may well be way better for such newbie to continue to buy bitcoin in accordance with his how budget and not to get to distracted about what the BTC price is doing or what the BTC price might do, which you seem to want to spend a whole hell of a lot of time on such topic, yet with your time in the forum, it seems you probably should be focusing more on accumulating bitcoin rather than trying to strategize your buys (or your other behavior) based on what you anticipate the BTC price to be doing, which may or many not happen.

Maybe said another way, there are things that we can control and things that we cannot control, so we can control that we buy in accordance with our budget and we can choose how aggressive to be within our budget. If we have concluded that we are in our early stages of bitcoin and we either don't have any bitcoin or we don't have enough bitcoin, then we are likely better off to just keep accumulating by buying consistently, persistently, ongoingly and perhaps even aggressively rather than fucking around with thinking about either waiting or even thinking about selling some to buy back cheaper, which may or may not happen and which likely will screw up our whole system of buying bitcoin regularly and actually making progress in building our bitcoin stack size.

Of course, you can disagree and you can include selling tactics and waiting tactics into your strategy.  That is your choice, but if you start to advocate those kinds of strategies and you are not putting enough context into why you are advocating such, then you are likely to get push back from members like me, and yeah, I don't need to respond to all of your posts, either,.. it's a choice if something might strike me and if I want to respond.


The purpose of the emergency fund is not to use if there is a dip, but instead to have so that you never have to dip into your BTC holdings.  You also should not be dipping into your emergency fund absent an actual emergency.  So the more bitcoin that you have, the more likely that you need more emergency funds and various other back up funds in place so that you never have to touch your bitcoin except at a time that is of your own choosing, likely 4-10 years or longer down the road, and maybe for you Sexylizzy2813, you should be thinking in terms fo 15 years or longer so that you get yourself into the right long term mindset. 

Again if you are investing into bitcoin with money that you need, then you are likely investing too much.

You can also build your emergency fund and your bitcoin holdings at the same time, and if you are only investing 10% of your income, and you have to put half of that into your emergency fund, then it could take you several years just to get to a point of having 3 months emergency fund and 3 months invested in bitcoin.

Many folks already tend to have 2-6 weeks of cash that they tend to keep in some form or another, even if they are not investing into bitcoin, so building an emergency fund can be part of what they already do.   Sure there are some folks who don't even have 2 weeks worth of extra cash, and they spend their money as they receive it, yet those are not the kinds of people who are either normal or that we want to emulate, since people who don't keep any emergency funds are always having emergencies, and part of the goal of creating and maintaining an emergency fund should be to never have to tap into it... sure there might be some times that you are not able to help it, but as you practice more and more investing into bitcoin, building your emergency fund and then having other categories of back up funds such as reserve funds and float, then you should get into situations in which you are less emotional about finances, your psychology is better and you are not having as many financial and/or psychological emergencies because you are living with a sufficient and/or adequate cash cushion and you are engaging in otherwise strong cashflow management practice in terms of making sure that you are taking care of your expenses first before investing so that you really know what is your discretionary income..and yeah it could take many months or even years to get your cashflow management and your back ups into a strong place that nearly eliminates emergencies that you are not able to deal with.


You are likely your best teacher in order to figure out how to be as aggressive as possible without over doing it.

If you are not sure about how aggressive that you are able to be, then you should start out with way less aggressive systems until you have your systems in place, so you might not even be able to be aggressive until you have spent time building your emergency funds and back up funds, yet your emergency and back up funds can be built while you are simultaneously buying bitcoin, you just are not able to be aggressive until you have your various cashflow management systems in place.

I agree with you with all you said but you have to know that these things don't just happen like that, as it is the first time I'm doing it, I won't be as good at holding as Mr @double_JG, it will take time for it to get used to me and starting with 4 years is a very long time and knowing that it will yield more it won't be easy to start as well. What you said about emergency fund is true and that's what has been making many who plan on holding even if it's a short term investment to always look back at their holding, you see is not easy coupled with the fact that Bitcoin sometimes do dip it causes much panic, that's when you'd know who have an emergency fund before starting the investment.



I like the last thing you said "not to overdo", is easy to start but hard to control, it will look as if you're better than someone you're learning from. All these things need someone who can guide you properly if not you'd might go off the line. To me I'd prefer with how I started back in September.

You are the one that's making it look hard to you because you haven't prepared your mindset towards investing in a long-term investment. You can start with four years' timeline and invest with little amount from your discretionary income that you can do without. So that you can be consistently buying bitcoin every week/month whenever you get paid. A little beginning can turn up to something very big beyond your expectations.

You should also set up emergency funds for back up so that you don't sell your bitcoin too early before time. Emergency funds will help you take care of any emergency that arises during your bitcoin accumulation stage. If you don't set up an emergency funds, you will not be able to hodli for long.

Since you are still struggling to see how you can hodli for long, you should start by buying with little amount and continue like that till when your faith is very strong on bitcoin due to the more knowledge that you have acquired on bitcoin, you can then start buying aggressively, but don't overdo it.

With what you said you some how made me believe you're not too sure of what you're saying, yes everyone is responsible for his or her actions that's why we choose to either take an advise from someone we don't know or not, is a personal decision to make. You know buying and holding Bitcoin for about 4-10 years like you said is good but is not everybody that can endure for that long. Good idea but it's hard to get more holders.



I would love to be an aggressive holder but is too hard to be one, it takes a lot to be one since in just starting to hold but let's see how far the little (to you is little so let me use the word Little) I'm holding can take me. I understand what you saying but you must admit it that you're always direct and aggressive with words with you see someone talk about what he feels about the way Bitcoin price has been either going up or down, let's say for now the market price has been poor and if I say it won't dump to $99k before tomorrow you won't only kick against it but use your words to hit back like we're having issues, hope you get me.

I agree that there are a variety of ways to invest, and that there are ways that traders can also be investors, yet an overwhelming majority of traders are neither profitable nor are they able to invest while trading -meaning to set aside part of their capital as an investment that may well even support their trading. 

Many traders do not have enough capital, they don't build their capital enough in order to have part oftheir funds support them passively while trading the other portion, and so many traders even have trouble employing profitable techniques.

If we zoom out a couple of cycles, let's say 8 years or more, there are rare traders who are able to beat a bitcoin investment strategy, whether we are referring to DCAing into bitcoin or perhaps lump summing or combining lump summing and DCAing.

I have no problem with guys choosing whatever they like, yet I become bothered if guys try to suggest that trading is better than investing, absent some guys who might be able to build trading skills, and sure there can be guys who might work for 10 years and build their capital prior to getting into trading, and sure there can be ways that guys can live off their income from their trading, but then are they able to set aside any of their earnings into investing, and they may well be better off with a side job rather than trying to earn income from trading.

I understand that there might be some guys who are not able to earn income in their location and with their skills, and there could be situations in which these guys are able to earn more income by trading than they would be able to earn with their skills and in the part of the world that they live... yet there are a panoply of factors to consider in regards to whether trying to improve their skills and their income might be better than trying to earn income by trading, whether bitcoin or anything else.

I am not going to try to know some other guys circumstances, since there likely are some guys who can figure out systems to build their capital, build their trading portfolio and also to categorize their funds in such ways that they are also building an investment portfolio, too... perhaps even getting part of their fund to a high enough level that it can support their expenses and lifestyle.. while they continue to have a separate trading portfolio fund that they also might be able to build with the passage of time too.


I am not forcing anyone.  I am describing a way to consider investing into bitcoin that would fit the definition of investing rather than trading or gambling with bitcoin, so if someone has less than a 4 year timeline, then he is trading rather than investing, and if he is calling what he is doing investing, then he is likely fooling himself and/or fooling anyone listening to him.


Most likely I am not proclaiming that guys cannot trade, since guys can do whatever they like, but if they are talking about trading as if it were investing, then that seems misleading to me, and part of the reason that we are in a public thread is to discuss differing ideas about how to go about involving ourselves in bitcoin, if we end up choosing to get involved in bitcoin beyond just reading and writing about it.

I read through the post and I did not see anywhere force was mentioned rather the discussion here are mainly suggestions of what is best on the long run. What we are all focusing on is how to own Bitcoin and make the best of it. That being said, I'm totally supporting not trading off your precious Bitcoin for quick profits because there are chances that such profits may never come back into Bitcoin. I have seen a case of someone liquidating his Bitcoin assets and subconsciously changing lifestyle to suit his new status of being rich...buying expensive designers and living lavishly until the money got depleted and he came back to his senses. Not everyone is like this but there is definitely the temptation to spend money that is readily available and accessible on things you would never buy if the money were tied to an investment.

If I may ask, between those who bought Bitcoin around 2013/2014 and held till date and those who have been buying and selling between the market cycles, who do you think have more Bitcoin today? I will leave you to ponder on that, perhaps that will help you understand why long term HODL is the best way to go. 

Thanks for your review JJG - I know I'm bad at this, but that's how I describe it even though I'm not really a trader. I have been investing since I was on this forum and so far I am very proud of my decision to hold even though on the one hand this decision has really tested my mentality and psychology.

On the other hand, I am just trying to explain that some traders also succeed in building their investment portfolio because they regularly buy bitcoin from their trading profits. I'm sure in this case the trader would not mess up their investments just for trading - meaning they have separate budgets between investing and trading. I can guess that you would never agree with this kind of approach - but there are plenty of ways for anyone if they want to build their portfolio.

I can totally understand what you are explaining JJG - but however we can never force anyone to take the same approach as we intended. They clearly have their own choices and strategic approaches regardless of whether it is profitable or will only end in vain. If it were me - I would still choose to invest with the DCA approach as I have done so far.

And then $200k.
 

This thread reminds me of the day Bitcoin hit $100k that very day was indeed a dream come true for me because as I was sleeping in my dream I found out that Bitcoin have hit $100k and I was very excited about it but to my greatest surprise as I wake up in the morning I found out that my dream have come to reality.

However, I think it is possible for us to sleep and wake up and see that Bitcoin is $150k above one day.

Your efforts at describing investors and traders as having the same and/or similar goals likely brings more confusion than clarity, and it sounds like a description from a trader trying to proclaim that he is an investor, and yeah, sure, there is some truth in the matter, but it is confusing to want to gravitate towards trading and to be suggesting that trading is a good idea, especially in something like bitcoin that is amongst the best of investments available, and there are so many ways that a trader will end up fucking up an otherwise good investment by trying to profitably trade it.

I am not going to go through such a wasteful time, even though surely guys are true to choose if they want to try to trade (gamble) their bitcoin, rather than buying regularly and building their portfolio for 4-10 years or longer, and then likely having more options down the road due to such ongoing building of their BTC stash through various accumulation techniques that focus on buying bitcoin, such as DCA, lump sum and buying on dips kinds of ongoing, persistent, consistent and perhaps even aggressive buying.

Investing and trading essentially have the same end goal - namely earning a return. Both have different time frames where investors tend to believe that in the long term the value of their investment will be more - while traders tend to choose the short term to generate recurring profits. Traders who are able to exploit market volatility with their knowledge and skills are more likely to be able to accumulate more assets without requiring additional capital - but this will obviously take a lot of extra time and effort as they will have to deal with the market more frequently than holders.

The focus on sales is not a problem - but it may not be suitable for investors. Even some investors sometimes need to endure temporary losses due to price volatility in order to get the expected return in the future - but investors and traders both have the same goal. It's up to them what they're interested in - the ultimate goal is still to generate returns.

Some investors only need 3 or 4 months to make 100% returns on their investments - others need 24 months to make 600% returns. This all depends on what each of them's goals are and to what limits they are able to withstand. It's wise to sell when someone takes a profit if the value of their investment has already reached 200% to 500% - but it's also not wrong to take it early at 100%. It's just that we definitely know that they will regret it when they find out they should have earned 500% or above.

Selling shouldn't be the main focus of a new investor who just started his bitcoin journey because he would be carried away with little profits and get distracted by selling. Before you kbow it, you will lose focus on your investment goal and turn into a trader limiting the opportunity that is in the market for you to keep on accumulating and building your bitcoin portfolio overtime for the future.

At least, it's good that we put into practice some healthy long-term investment goal to enable us accumulate wealth for ourselves from the current resources that we are having now. Four years is cool for those that can't be patient and hodli for long, but I prefer from 10 years and above because that's is where the real profit lies based on the compounding effect of your bitcoin stash.

$120k is ONLY about 11% higher than $108k, so it is hardly a stretch to consider that $120k could be within the cards for this weekly candle, which still has nearly 5 more days before it closes.

Sure, I am not describing 50/50 odds, and I am probably not even assigning any kind of meaningful odds or taking it for granted, but suggesting that it is really low odds (even lower than 10% odds) or proclaiming that it is not going to happen, seems to be a step too far too.

Anyone who has studied bitcoin should be able to recognize that from time to time it has explosive moves to the upside that don't necessarily stop when any of us believe that such UPPity explosive moves will happen, and surely such UPpity moves can end up recking folks who have failed/refused to adequately prepare themselves for such possible moves.  I have seen it plenty in my time in bitcoin (since late 2013), and I doubt that bitcoin has outgrown the possibility of such seemingly outsized upwards explosive moves, which we may continue to be in the middle of such..perhaps? perhaps?

Hopefully for you, you did not sell too much at or around $100k with an expectation to buy 15% to 25% or more lower. which may well even have way lower odds than our going to $120k within the next 5-ish days... I am not ruling out either direction, yet I am prepared financially and psychologically for either direction.  How about you?


I am just describing what seems to be reasonably within the realm of possibilities, especially given recent bitcoin price dynamics, including but not limited to things going on in the macro-space too.


$3k to $5k now adds up to a smaller percentage than it did even 1.5 months ago... but hey a lot of things can end up happening, including a lot of UPpity momentum when we finally break above certain round numbers.. similar to what happened when we broke above $1k in late 2016 into early 2017.. we were soon playing around with $2k.. .. and the same is true when we broke above $10k in late 2017, we were soon nearly up to $20k, even though surely in the second instance, we did end up correcting back down below $10k again in 2018 and even dragging out until late 2020, which truly may not be similar dynamics with $100k- and we are still yet to find out, and I would imagine that it is good to figure out how any of us want to play our cards.. are we largely HODLing through these periods, accumulating bitcoin or are we in some kind of another status where we might already have plenty of BTC.. .. and surely an overwhelming majority of the world's population (including governments and institutions and even status quo rich peeps) do not have even close to as much BTC as they wished that they were to have.. so it may be helpful to account for some of the actual impacts of bitcoin scarcity.. even if there also might be some dangerous attempts of some third party custodians to be fucking around with paper bitcoins too.. which may well end up biting them in the ass pretty good, even during these periods of UPpity in which they might not have the bitcoin that they claim to have.  Ouch.


Sure.  One step at a time, and sometimes charts don't do too well in an asset class that continues to be in price discovery status, too.  You might have to throw out some of your charts and perhaps regather them at some later date.. but hey, you do you.  Hopefully, for your own good, you did not sell too many cornz too soon, yet I can hardly imagine such a thing.. There are a lot of traders who regret that they are not long enough in times like this (especially when they had the last couple of years to get long, but were busy trading during that time, and yeah, there might have had been some possible successes, but how are they doing now?  selling and/or leveraging down.. and getting recked over and over and over since about September - all the way from $58k until now)?


I doubt that I was personally advising because in the end guys can do whatever they like, and they are responsible for their actions...

I do frequently talk about best practices to continue to buy bitcoin for at least 4 years or until you have enough, and so selling (or waiting for the price to go down) is not part of any practice of accumulating bitcoin.  So yeah, whether we call it advise or not to buy as aggressively as you are able to buy until you have more than enough can take 4-10 years or longer.

I have been wrong about a lot of things, and I have made several mistakes in my bitcoin journey... yet at the same time, I have almost continuously errored on the side of trying to accumulate and hold bitcoin and even suggesting that others do the same.. yet even in the real world, hardly anyone acts to buy bitcoin or even come close to buy enough or to buy beyond just dabbling.. and then so many people sell too much too soon and also fail/refuse to adequately prepare for up.. so there is nothing that any of us can do to get people to help them selves, since each person has to take their own actions to accumulate bitcoin, and if they made mistakes to figure out how to get back on the horse and to start to employ better practices of accumulating rather than fucking around with either waiting or selling practices.. which are not very good practices for anyone who has no coins or low quantities of coins.


Sure.. better if you did not sell and if you were able to hold.. even if you did not accumulate more.. So surely there are differences between whimpy investors and aggressive investors, and you have to choose for yourself which one or which variant you want to be in terms of how far down the scale in one direction or another you would want to be.

We are in a public forum with various public threads, so messages might not always be directed to you instead of being directed to some ideas that might arise from your earlier posts.


Whether you are tempted to sell or you are constantly talking about selling or talking about others selling is a framework that you make.

I still imagine any no coiner or low coiner needs to spend at least a whole cycle and perhaps even longer than that to be accumulating bitcoin through buying rather than worrying about selling, but hey folks (including you) can do what you like.

If you notice, Michael Saylor buying bitcoin doesn't seem to have any significant impact on bitcoin price in the short term. Or even the bitcoin buying power from ETFs is larger than Saylor but it doesn't seem to impact bitcoin price in the short term. So I think we need bigger and more groundbreaking news than just waiting for news like Saylor or ETFs buying bitcoin.

But today and tomorrow we will have news of a Fed rate cut, and most forecasts are that the Fed will continue to cut by 0.25% despite signs of inflation picking up again. I think this could push bitcoin to $110k but $120k is very unlikely and would require a bigger catalyst.

At the pace Bitcoin is going, I agree that $120k is not feasible this week rather $110k is a better choice. Bitcoin have been growing by less than 0.5% daily for few days now, hence it will likely not reach $120k before the end of this week if it continues at that growth rate unless something changes which is likely possible. Maybe someone will call Michael Saylor to make another huge purchase that will push the market to jump that high before the week ends. In other words, it will require a strong fundamental news release to realise such a massive price increase before the end of the week.

Personally, I'm seeing Bitcoin reaching $120k from January, the build up to the inauguration.  I don't want to sound selfish buy I want it that way for personal reasons which is not unconnected to getting more coins within the current price regime using my weekly DCA.

I remember when you were aggressively advising (if I should call it that) me to buy, hold and all that, I was a bit against it but not saying much by walking on that path (your advise) was better than before and I also made some speculations or rather prediction about how Bitcoin was going to turn out as of this moment but it turns out wrong, you should know that I never said I was from the future, is just a prediction that went wrong and you won't say you haven't been wrong before.
You said so much about how the market price was going to be and I was using that to predict it also but you kept on assuming things, thats the issue you have about members on the Forum, I took your advise and since September I stopped doing the off and on thing and since then I have been holding, is not every thing I have to air out here and you should know that.
This last month of the year has been more better than that of last year and you know how it was when Bitcoin was seriously going down, the pressure that was placed on those of us who was holding, some went on to sell and they're regretting it now. But I still believe that whosoever buys now can still get something since the market has been promising. To hold has never been easy to be honest, the temptations to sell will always present it self especially when Bitcoin price starts going down.

Unfortunately, that did not happen, but it is an excellent call you have there. I will continue to expect even the unexpected from Bitcoin going forward in this bullish season and the $120,000 is now more feasible than ever and could be hit before the end of this year. However, I like to take it easy on calling some high levels, I prefer to call between $3000 - $5,000 addition depending on what I see on my chart. Now, Bitcoin at $107,000, the $110,000 is more feasible today than before, even as the daily and weekly charts' price actions support the view.

I'm late to see this. Even though it's late, I think it's time to hurry up and do something that can be done that will make the mood happy.
Maybe by the end of this year we shouldn't fall asleep because the situation is convincing for us to go to the moon.
$150K will be the price we will welcome, my friend. If you are currently enjoying sleeping in a hotel next to the river, maybe a hotel next to the sea with a very beautiful sunset atmosphere.

$120k by the end of the week? Not to sound pessimistic but with unstable price can be like you mentioned, I feel the best we can see at the end of the week is $108. Except there would be an event that would push it up.

Definitely looks like it's increasing like anything, we already saw 107k+ and that's a great increase, I am sure it may go a bit higher after that too. This is the beauty of bitcoin, it doesn't do much for a while, you think it's asleep, and then suddenly it ends up going up like crazy, that was one of those days, it went up quite a lot.

We are breaking our own all time high price over and over again, and I believe that 200k by the end of this bull run could be the most important goal we could have. I mean the possibility of it is there and we could see that working eventually. This has to be the most important part of it after all kind of speculations here, and I am sure that we are all set our best to get there like USA's plan for reserve along with gold and Amazon's 5% reserve etc.