Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1242.

Phinnaeus Gage

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Bitcoin: An Idea Worth Spending

Quote from: rocks on November 05, 2013, 01:29:29 PM

It's been awhile since this question has been asked, but it is one thesis of this thread so I thought worth asking again.

How long do people now think we have to go until we reach bitcoin/gold parity (1 BTC = 1oz Au)

Last year I used to think this would take many many years, but given the recent interest and adoption by the tech startup community (just look at the recent VC investments and silicon valley leader comments) I think parity could now happen much sooner. IMHO by 2014 bitcoin/gold parity as an accepted or average price is quite possible. (Just 12 months ago bitcoin/silver parity seemed silly to ask for, but now that would be considered a stupid bargin.)

Of course once that milestone is reached, the next question/target is bitcoin parity with the real units of gold, comex 400oz bars. That is the realm of bankers and would make bitcoin real money.

Here's a parity goal:

oakpacific

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Quote from: Adrian-x on November 05, 2013, 10:25:53 PM

Quote from: oakpacific on November 05, 2013, 10:11:28 PM

Quote from: User705 on November 05, 2013, 09:54:21 PM

Quote from: oakpacific on November 05, 2013, 10:06:34 AM

I haven't figured it out, so the riches are ready to deposit billions of dollars into our several obscure Bitcoin exchanges already? Otherwise what is driving the price higher?

Likely various exchanges open up bitcoin to a larger population. I think there's very little actual bitcoins traded. Most large holders aren't selling so the actual pool of traded coins is likely to be many magnitudes smaller then total cap. I wonder if someone can run blockchain analyses on known exchange addresses and see how many coins circulate. Or look at their sell book. Currently bitcoin is like a stock. There are heavy holders who aren't doing anything and then there is a much smaller float that new entrants have to chase.

The circulating bitcoins have to move ridiculously fast or a large portion of all bitcoins have to be in movement, otherwise it's hard to explain why Silk Road managed to process 9.5 million bitcoins in less than 3 years.

That is profound a few Bitcoin have quite a high velocity.
Am I correct in predicting if the velocity of money slows we get price deflation (Bitcoin increase in value)

Also time for an update - G v B and also a peek to peek comparison with gold.
(I'm on my phone so I'll just hint)

I think it's only when you can't figure out what the heck is going on in your economy that you have a real economy. Tongue

Adrian-x

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Quote from: oakpacific on November 05, 2013, 10:11:28 PM

Quote from: User705 on November 05, 2013, 09:54:21 PM

Quote from: oakpacific on November 05, 2013, 10:06:34 AM

I haven't figured it out, so the riches are ready to deposit billions of dollars into our several obscure Bitcoin exchanges already? Otherwise what is driving the price higher?

Likely various exchanges open up bitcoin to a larger population. I think there's very little actual bitcoins traded. Most large holders aren't selling so the actual pool of traded coins is likely to be many magnitudes smaller then total cap. I wonder if someone can run blockchain analyses on known exchange addresses and see how many coins circulate. Or look at their sell book. Currently bitcoin is like a stock. There are heavy holders who aren't doing anything and then there is a much smaller float that new entrants have to chase.

The circulating bitcoins have to move ridiculously fast or a large portion of all bitcoins have to be in movement, otherwise it's hard to explain why Silk Road managed to process 9.5 million bitcoins in less than 3 years.

That is profound a few Bitcoin have quite a high velocity.
Am I correct in predicting if the velocity of money slows we get price deflation (Bitcoin increase in value)

Also time for an update - G v B and also a peek to peek comparison with gold.
(I'm on my phone so I'll just hint)

oakpacific

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Quote from: User705 on November 05, 2013, 09:54:21 PM

Quote from: oakpacific on November 05, 2013, 10:06:34 AM

I haven't figured it out, so the riches are ready to deposit billions of dollars into our several obscure Bitcoin exchanges already? Otherwise what is driving the price higher?

Likely various exchanges open up bitcoin to a larger population. I think there's very little actual bitcoins traded. Most large holders aren't selling so the actual pool of traded coins is likely to be many magnitudes smaller then total cap. I wonder if someone can run blockchain analyses on known exchange addresses and see how many coins circulate. Or look at their sell book. Currently bitcoin is like a stock. There are heavy holders who aren't doing anything and then there is a much smaller float that new entrants have to chase.

The circulating bitcoins have to move ridiculously fast or a large portion of all bitcoins have to be in movement, otherwise it's hard to explain why Silk Road managed to process 9.5 million bitcoins in less than 3 years.

User705

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First 100% Liquid Stablecoin Backed by Gold

Quote from: oakpacific on November 05, 2013, 10:06:34 AM

I haven't figured it out, so the riches are ready to deposit billions of dollars into our several obscure Bitcoin exchanges already? Otherwise what is driving the price higher?

Likely various exchanges open up bitcoin to a larger population. I think there's very little actual bitcoins traded. Most large holders aren't selling so the actual pool of traded coins is likely to be many magnitudes smaller then total cap. I wonder if someone can run blockchain analyses on known exchange addresses and see how many coins circulate. Or look at their sell book. Currently bitcoin is like a stock. There are heavy holders who aren't doing anything and then there is a much smaller float that new entrants have to chase.

Peter Lambert

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It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye

Quote from: molecular on November 05, 2013, 02:16:24 PM

Quote from: Peter Lambert on November 05, 2013, 01:52:38 PM

Quote from: rocks on November 05, 2013, 01:29:29 PM

It's been awhile since this question has been asked, but it is one thesis of this thread so I thought worth asking again.

How long do people now think we have to go until we reach bitcoin/gold parity (1 BTC = 1oz Au)

Last year I used to think this would take many many years, but given the recent interest and adoption by the tech startup community (just look at the recent VC investments and silicon valley leader comments) I think parity could now happen much sooner. IMHO by 2014 bitcoin/gold parity as an accepted or average price is quite possible. (Just 12 months ago bitcoin/silver parity seemed silly to ask for, but now that would be considered a stupid bargin.)

Of course once that milestone is reached, the next question/target is bitcoin parity with the real units of gold, comex 400oz bars. That is the realm of bankers and would make bitcoin real money.

I am guessing we will see 1 BTC = 1 XAG before the end of 2016.

But what I think is a more interesting comparison: when will the market cap of bitcoins surpass the market cap of gold?

Despite Mrs. Hudes affirmations I'm assuming 5 billion ounces of gold exist. So for every bitcoin that will ever exist there's 238 ounces of gold.

It could take a while and it would put the dollar-price of a bitcoin to 300,000 USD.

my guess is 2019

I guess it depends on how gold does. As this thread speculates, gold is going down. So bitcoin could be bigger than gold at a lower price point than that, but I think the order of magnitude is about right. Plus, since nobody knows exactly how many ounces of gold exist we will never be able to pinpoint the moment that bitcoin is bigger than gold.

molecular

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Quote from: wachtwoord on November 05, 2013, 02:52:21 PM

Quote from: rpietila on November 05, 2013, 02:47:45 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: molecular on November 05, 2013, 02:16:24 PM

It could take a while and it would put the dollar-price of a bitcoin to 300,000 USD.

my guess is 2019

Where have I seen that 300,000 number before? Might have been a call for Dec this year Wink

Good numbers never die. My current target is 2016 however.

Would be hilarious (but completely unrealistic of course) if the prediction would end up coming true. I think I would get quite drunk in December Tongue

There have been many hilarious predictions that came true already.

wachtwoord

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Quote from: rpietila on November 05, 2013, 02:47:45 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: molecular on November 05, 2013, 02:16:24 PM

It could take a while and it would put the dollar-price of a bitcoin to 300,000 USD.

my guess is 2019

Where have I seen that 300,000 number before? Might have been a call for Dec this year Wink

Good numbers never die. My current target is 2016 however.

Would be hilarious (but completely unrealistic of course) if the prediction would end up coming true. I think I would get quite drunk in December Tongue

rpietila

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: molecular on November 05, 2013, 02:16:24 PM

It could take a while and it would put the dollar-price of a bitcoin to 300,000 USD.

my guess is 2019

Where have I seen that 300,000 number before? Might have been a call for Dec this year Wink

Good numbers never die. My current target is 2016 however.

molecular

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Activity: 2772

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Quote from: Peter Lambert on November 05, 2013, 01:52:38 PM

Quote from: rocks on November 05, 2013, 01:29:29 PM

It's been awhile since this question has been asked, but it is one thesis of this thread so I thought worth asking again.

How long do people now think we have to go until we reach bitcoin/gold parity (1 BTC = 1oz Au)

Last year I used to think this would take many many years, but given the recent interest and adoption by the tech startup community (just look at the recent VC investments and silicon valley leader comments) I think parity could now happen much sooner. IMHO by 2014 bitcoin/gold parity as an accepted or average price is quite possible. (Just 12 months ago bitcoin/silver parity seemed silly to ask for, but now that would be considered a stupid bargin.)

Of course once that milestone is reached, the next question/target is bitcoin parity with the real units of gold, comex 400oz bars. That is the realm of bankers and would make bitcoin real money.

I am guessing we will see 1 BTC = 1 XAG before the end of 2016.

But what I think is a more interesting comparison: when will the market cap of bitcoins surpass the market cap of gold?

Despite Mrs. Hudes affirmations I'm assuming 5 billion ounces of gold exist. So for every bitcoin that will ever exist there's 238 ounces of gold.

It could take a while and it would put the dollar-price of a bitcoin to 300,000 USD.

my guess is 2019

Peter Lambert

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Activity: 756

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It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye

Quote from: rocks on November 05, 2013, 01:29:29 PM

It's been awhile since this question has been asked, but it is one thesis of this thread so I thought worth asking again.

How long do people now think we have to go until we reach bitcoin/gold parity (1 BTC = 1oz Au)

Last year I used to think this would take many many years, but given the recent interest and adoption by the tech startup community (just look at the recent VC investments and silicon valley leader comments) I think parity could now happen much sooner. IMHO by 2014 bitcoin/gold parity as an accepted or average price is quite possible. (Just 12 months ago bitcoin/silver parity seemed silly to ask for, but now that would be considered a stupid bargin.)

Of course once that milestone is reached, the next question/target is bitcoin parity with the real units of gold, comex 400oz bars. That is the realm of bankers and would make bitcoin real money.

I am guessing we will see 1 BTC = 1 XAG before the end of 2016.

But what I think is a more interesting comparison: when will the market cap of bitcoins surpass the market cap of gold?

rocks

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It's been awhile since this question has been asked, but it is one thesis of this thread so I thought worth asking again.

How long do people now think we have to go until we reach bitcoin/gold parity (1 BTC = 1oz Au)

Last year I used to think this would take many many years, but given the recent interest and adoption by the tech startup community (just look at the recent VC investments and silicon valley leader comments) I think parity could now happen much sooner. IMHO by 2014 bitcoin/gold parity as an accepted or average price is quite possible. (Just 12 months ago bitcoin/silver parity seemed silly to ask for, but now that would be considered a stupid bargin.)

Of course once that milestone is reached, the next question/target is bitcoin parity with the real units of gold, comex 400oz bars. That is the realm of bankers and would make bitcoin real money.

Spaceman_Spiff

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Quote from: oakpacific on November 05, 2013, 10:06:34 AM

I haven't figured it out, so the riches are ready to deposit billions of dollars into our several obscure Bitcoin exchanges already? Otherwise what is driving the price higher?

billions of dollars into the exchanges? Definitely not, total market cap isn't even 3 billion.

notme

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Quote from: fallinglantern on November 05, 2013, 09:56:05 AM

Quote from: vokain on November 05, 2013, 09:51:46 AM

ew fiat

draw fiat from BTC stash when needed, Bitcoin is your new retirement account

Until the tax man accepts payment in BTC, that's unfortunately not a realistic argument.

Taxes are included in "draw fiat from BTC stash WHEN NEEDED".

vokain

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Quote from: justusranvier on November 05, 2013, 10:08:57 AM

Quote from: vokain on November 05, 2013, 10:07:23 AM

do you have any more information on this?

No, but Doug Casey, Jeff Berwick, and a few others do.

thank you

justusranvier

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Quote from: vokain on November 05, 2013, 10:07:23 AM

do you have any more information on this?

No, but Doug Casey, Jeff Berwick, and a few others do.

vokain

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Quote from: justusranvier on November 05, 2013, 09:57:30 AM

Quote from: fallinglantern on November 05, 2013, 09:56:05 AM

Until the tax man accepts payment in BTC, that's unfortunately not a realistic argument.

Become a permanent international traveller and you can largely escape the tax man's effective reach.

do you have any more information on this?

Quote from: oakpacific on November 05, 2013, 10:06:34 AM

I haven't figured it out, so the riches are ready to deposit billions of dollars into our several obscure Bitcoin exchanges already? Otherwise what is driving the price higher?

there's been a ton of depositor activity in Bitfinex, competing for lending rates

oakpacific

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I haven't figured it out, so the riches are ready to deposit billions of dollars into our several obscure Bitcoin exchanges already? Otherwise what is driving the price higher?

justusranvier

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Quote from: fallinglantern on November 05, 2013, 09:56:05 AM

Until the tax man accepts payment in BTC, that's unfortunately not a realistic argument.

Become a permanent international traveller and you can largely escape the tax man's effective reach.

fallinglantern

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Quote from: vokain on November 05, 2013, 09:51:46 AM

ew fiat

draw fiat from BTC stash when needed, Bitcoin is your new retirement account

Until the tax man accepts payment in BTC, that's unfortunately not a realistic argument.

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