Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1318. (Read 2032272 times)
It feels like we are running out of gold and Bitcoin's.
I see little chance of a larger correction to gold price unless the economy starts a miraculous recovery, which I don't believe in. Peak oil is still the most relevant problem that probably won't go away easily, next decade the earliest. Energy is the backbone of the whole economy and the gradually and slowly rising energy prices are a major source of friction in the economy causing everyone to take on more debt. Players in the economy are desperately trying to sustain growth while fundamentally there can be no growth because the energy to support that growth is simply not there.
Thus the problem is much deeper than many realize, in the current situation every time the economy "recovers" oil demand spikes and then oil prices spike causing another major crash. In fact the crashes get bigger every time, with the world being still so dependent on oil. I expect that what we saw in 2008 will be small once we hit the next cycle.
I expect the economy to do a larger fake recovery soon, but then we will go much deeper than in 2008. Simply because not enough has been done to reduce dependency on scarce resources such as oil. Global oil production hasn't increased since 2005 most likely, yet demand keeps going up thanks to China and other growing economies.
Gold bugs know all of this and will certainly feel more safe with gold than USD. Even though I'm quite bullish on Bitcoin long term, I still hold significantly more value in gold than in bitcoins. This could change but slowly, over a period of many years. Once I feel more confident about the economy and the state of Bitcoin I might consider changing more gold into bitcoins.
Thus the problem is much deeper than many realize, in the current situation every time the economy "recovers" oil demand spikes and then oil prices spike causing another major crash. In fact the crashes get bigger every time, with the world being still so dependent on oil. I expect that what we saw in 2008 will be small once we hit the next cycle.
I expect the economy to do a larger fake recovery soon, but then we will go much deeper than in 2008. Simply because not enough has been done to reduce dependency on scarce resources such as oil. Global oil production hasn't increased since 2005 most likely, yet demand keeps going up thanks to China and other growing economies.
Gold bugs know all of this and will certainly feel more safe with gold than USD. Even though I'm quite bullish on Bitcoin long term, I still hold significantly more value in gold than in bitcoins. This could change but slowly, over a period of many years. Once I feel more confident about the economy and the state of Bitcoin I might consider changing more gold into bitcoins.
peak oil what a scam
coal can be made into oil, good for another 300 years
thorium reactors, product substitution, tram systems, actual city planning
peak oil is n#1 scam
You basing this analysis on any thought or just pulling it out of under your tin foil hat? "Peak oil" never meant oil can't be acquired. It just means that the rising price of oil makes (to some degree) other energy or investment in energy efficiency cheaper then oil. This results in a "peak" in the production of oil. So not a world shaking deal right now. But it is important because it essentially means that it takes a great delta demand to change the delta supply. It's market behavior is transitioning from a mineral like salt to one more like silver/gold -- that is, you can't just throw more mining equipment at the problem to rapidly get more.
coal can be made into oil, good for another 300 years
peak oil is n#1 scam
Coal can be made into oil but you should understand how coal reserves are estimated and calculated.
I suggest you watch all 8 episodes of this alternately answer the 3 questions in the first 2 minutes of this video before you call peak oil the n#1 scam.
A Bitcoin based economy is the most practical solution I have found to the problem.
I've long been of the opinion that there is not as much of a scarcity of carbon based fossil fuels as is often portrayed. This 'scam' allows producers to jack prices up and gives excuses to engage in wars which also make some people very wealthy.
The chief problem we face is the capacity of our atmosphere to absorb the rapidly liberated carbon which has been sequestered over a period of millions or hundreds of millions of years.
coal can be made into oil, good for another 300 years
peak oil is n#1 scam
Coal can be made into oil but you should understand how coal reserves are estimated and calculated.
I suggest you watch all 8 episodes of this alternately answer the 3 questions in the first 2 minutes of this video before you call peak oil the n#1 scam.
A Bitcoin based economy is the most practical solution I have found to the problem.
I agree with miscreanity on most things. The people to win in the end, are those with the actual gold.
And yes, the most important aspect for the price right now is the demand for securitized gold—that demand is waning.
The demand is for physical gold. Securitized gold is paper.
just thought i'd remind everyone of silverbox's beloved GPL.
-53%
did you buy more @ 1.54 like you promised you would?:
-53%
did you buy more @ 1.54 like you promised you would?:
I see little chance of a larger correction to gold price unless the economy starts a miraculous recovery, which I don't believe in. Peak oil is still the most relevant problem that probably won't go away easily, next decade the earliest. Energy is the backbone of the whole economy and the gradually and slowly rising energy prices are a major source of friction in the economy causing everyone to take on more debt. Players in the economy are desperately trying to sustain growth while fundamentally there can be no growth because the energy to support that growth is simply not there.
Thus the problem is much deeper than many realize, in the current situation every time the economy "recovers" oil demand spikes and then oil prices spike causing another major crash. In fact the crashes get bigger every time, with the world being still so dependent on oil. I expect that what we saw in 2008 will be small once we hit the next cycle.
I expect the economy to do a larger fake recovery soon, but then we will go much deeper than in 2008. Simply because not enough has been done to reduce dependency on scarce resources such as oil. Global oil production hasn't increased since 2005 most likely, yet demand keeps going up thanks to China and other growing economies.
Gold bugs know all of this and will certainly feel more safe with gold than USD. Even though I'm quite bullish on Bitcoin long term, I still hold significantly more value in gold than in bitcoins. This could change but slowly, over a period of many years. Once I feel more confident about the economy and the state of Bitcoin I might consider changing more gold into bitcoins.
Thus the problem is much deeper than many realize, in the current situation every time the economy "recovers" oil demand spikes and then oil prices spike causing another major crash. In fact the crashes get bigger every time, with the world being still so dependent on oil. I expect that what we saw in 2008 will be small once we hit the next cycle.
I expect the economy to do a larger fake recovery soon, but then we will go much deeper than in 2008. Simply because not enough has been done to reduce dependency on scarce resources such as oil. Global oil production hasn't increased since 2005 most likely, yet demand keeps going up thanks to China and other growing economies.
Gold bugs know all of this and will certainly feel more safe with gold than USD. Even though I'm quite bullish on Bitcoin long term, I still hold significantly more value in gold than in bitcoins. This could change but slowly, over a period of many years. Once I feel more confident about the economy and the state of Bitcoin I might consider changing more gold into bitcoins.
peak oil what a scam
coal can be made into oil, good for another 300 years
thorium reactors, product substitution, tram systems, actual city planning
peak oil is n#1 scam
Just want to say here in thailand massive lines to buy physical gold.
I bought a bit for my wife but man. Not seen it like this since 2008.
I bought a bit for my wife but man. Not seen it like this since 2008.
Just looked on e-bay and the purchases of today all went for North of $1600. One at $1700. This with the 'spot' price of $1400. These are vastly higher spreads than I usually see on e-bay. Looks like things are going to start to get...um...interesting.
edit: 'they' = 1oz Krugs
if only all gold bugs would leave all their gold and enter bitcoin
than, after some period of stabilization,
go back, buy that gold, with only a percentage of their bitcoin...
than, after some period of stabilization,
go back, buy that gold, with only a percentage of their bitcoin...
Gold treading water. Bitcoin spurting upward.
...
And yes, the most important aspect for the price right now is the demand for securitized gold—that demand is waning.
And yes, the most important aspect for the price right now is the demand for securitized gold—that demand is waning.
Couldn't happen to soon in my opinion. To bad for the people who will realized in one big batch that the value is actually right around zero.
Yup. And once you remove that value what you are left with is about $400/oz gold.
I'm betting on several things: 1) Absence of an outlet for demand via the paper markets, and observation of tightness in the physical markets will result in increased interest in physical PM's. 2) The $400-ish baseline observed since the 80's bubble was a result of PM's not being a competitive asset relative to other forms of investment, and turmoil and uncertainty with instruments displaying counter-party risk will preclude such an environment for the foreseeable future. Very possibly in a BIG way.
Time will tell.
That would be neat. Hopefully Bitcoin is trading for a similar rate when this happens. I feel the need to diversify a bit and 1 bitcoin for 1 ounce of gold would suit me fine for a few ounces.
I'm only half joking that I wish to see 1BTC/kg-Au. The supply/demand functions favor valuations in that range by my seat-of-the-pants guestimations. But I won't be holding out that long before starting my move.
...
And yes, the most important aspect for the price right now is the demand for securitized gold—that demand is waning.
And yes, the most important aspect for the price right now is the demand for securitized gold—that demand is waning.
Couldn't happen to soon in my opinion. To bad for the people who will realized in one big batch that the value is actually right around zero.
Where is it? It is in the price divergence.
As you can see, it took years for the price divergence from "investment demand" to wind up, and it will take a little while for it to wind down. Gold mining will necessarily become unprofitable because we already got all the easy gold. We are waaaay past peak gold, but demand for the phys is also way off. And there is little reason for the paper markets, because people are realizing that the risk profile of securitized gold does not actually help you in the scenario in which there would be high demand for the otherwise useless metal... Perhaps a fashion trend can reverse things.
As you can see, it took years for the price divergence from "investment demand" to wind up, and it will take a little while for it to wind down. Gold mining will necessarily become unprofitable because we already got all the easy gold. We are waaaay past peak gold, but demand for the phys is also way off. And there is little reason for the paper markets, because people are realizing that the risk profile of securitized gold does not actually help you in the scenario in which there would be high demand for the otherwise useless metal... Perhaps a fashion trend can reverse things.
Gold has various uses such as in electronics and dentistry, not only as jewellery and as money. But the most important aspect for the price right now should be the demand for gold as an investment and/or money.
That doesn't do anything but highlight the liquidity problem. If gold is illiquid that does not make it more valuable. That makes it less valuable.
With appropriate valuation, liquidity is determined by physical supply, not overly-diluted fractional shares. Gold is too scarce for its present price in fiat denominations.
If gold were $31,000/oz, one gram would be $1,000 of savings. Not everyone would be able to scoop up kilos of the metal. While not ideal for transactional purposes, it functions very well for debt and trade settlement.
The same situation applies to Bitcoin, with the difference being that Bitcoin is used by a tiny subset of those using gold; i.e. the room for growth is much greater for Bitcoin than gold.
so i just called my local gold coin dealer and asked the price of a 1 oz Krug.
American gold markets will have a delay. There is little understanding of gold's nature in the west, not to mention lack of funds among much of the populace. Supply shortages starting elsewhere take time to propagate, like an earthquake.
Let's accelerate the issue: ask your dealer what the price is for physical delivery of 32,150 troy ounces (1 metric ton). See what the reply is both hypothetically and practically, with and without shipping costs.
The London Fix comes from the London Bullion Market... It is simply the securitized market at COMEX that drives the curves for price expectation.
I actually think that Bitcoin has highlighted the Achilles Heel of gold markets... That gold has a proof problem. The securitized gold markets provide much needed liquidity, and it is that liquidity that has been driving the price increase over the last decades because gold is goddamn heavy. Once belief in the value of that liquidity is eroded, so will the price support that it provides.
I actually think that Bitcoin has highlighted the Achilles Heel of gold markets... That gold has a proof problem. The securitized gold markets provide much needed liquidity, and it is that liquidity that has been driving the price increase over the last decades because gold is goddamn heavy. Once belief in the value of that liquidity is eroded, so will the price support that it provides.
Your assertion seems to assume that the LBMA has not been acting as a fractional banking system, and actually holds sufficient physical to satisfy all outstanding claims.
Gold does not really have a proof problem so much as it has a scaling problem (it can be argued that counterfeiting dollars is easier than faking physical gold). At local levels, it functions well. At large scales, physical limits preclude efficiency unless sufficiently large quantities or relative value is used in trade.
Yes, securitization provided liquidity in a convenient form, just like gold certificate dollars did (there are >150 billion grams of gold, making liquidity less of an issue than suggested). The value of that liquidity enabled gold to function on a wider scale and at higher volume than it could normally. It also concentrated custodial trust for too many participants. With only governments and other major institutions participating in the gold market, it becomes very difficult to obscure supply and demand. When millions of individuals are involved, accountability is fleeting due to societal momentum - who watches the watchers?
The price support for securitization will collapse, but that concerns the securitization instrument only; the underlying asset still has value. Physical gold remains a very strong store of value, and no amount of price decline changes the number of protons and neutrons in a gold atom.
The price for gold will surely go down rapidly as the divorce from paper to physical occurs. Are you saying that the price will rise even in excess of where it is now even with the split? I'm not so sure.
When the actual "USD/$1 face" price of 90% circulated coins started to go up, while the paper silver was crashing, in Sept. 14-16, 2008, I had less than a week before the friendly SWAT team from Finnish government raided my home and offices, confiscating almost all gold and silver that they could find. When they gave them back several months later, the "paper discount" had already disappeared.
excuse me, WHAT? Your metal was confiscated in 2008. On what grounds? Please, can you tell this story in a bit more detail?
Guys, if you want to buy silver right now, consider buying paper! Last time it gave a windfall to those who dared to buy at $9/"oz" in 2008. Of course there is a risk that it will not be honored, but last time it was. Don't think "this time it is different". Have your physical stash in a safe place, but don't run into the already thin market to buy more - in the event that COMEX defaults, your present stash will be more than enough of an insurance.
You can't be taking to me because my stash is miniscule... Isn't it a good time to increase ones physical silver/gold stack? I wouldn't even know how to buy paper silver. Seems like pure gambling to me anyway.
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