Author

Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1388. (Read 2032272 times)

legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
October 09, 2012, 09:13:15 PM
That scenario is the most logical outcome, and I do believe we are headed that way.. but the question is how long can the powers that be keep the sinking ship afloat..

I guess the most prominent breaking point at the moment is cost of living, prices of fuel and food etc.  Perhaps we are only another year or two away from worldwide riots related to food & petrol costs?

Which suggests if you can get involved in a self sufficient community that produces its own food etc then you may be able to shield yourself from upcoming hardship..  and that self sufficient community should use Bitcoin Smiley

Ultimately I would like to see a situation where each 'self sufficient community', and other bodies who have something of potential value, issue their own crypto-currency.  If the organization is managed well (including how it's currency solution is implemented and maintained) then it's monetary system prospers and the members who make up the organization benefit.

I hope that Bitcoin offers something of a proof of concept to inspire movement toward the aforementioned scenario, but have to admit that things could be somewhat prettier than what we are seeing in Bitcoin-land these days.  Oh well.

sr. member
Activity: 369
Merit: 250
October 09, 2012, 09:01:55 PM
That scenario is the most logical outcome, and I do believe we are headed that way.. but the question is how long can the powers that be keep the sinking ship afloat..

I guess the most prominent breaking point at the moment is cost of living, prices of fuel and food etc.  Perhaps we are only another year or two away from worldwide riots related to food & petrol costs?

Which suggests if you can get involved in a self sufficient community that produces its own food etc then you may be able to shield yourself from upcoming hardship..  and that self sufficient community should use Bitcoin Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
October 09, 2012, 06:00:27 PM
...

I continue to strongly believe that it is prudent to diversify, and prudent to prefer vehicles with limited counter-party risk.  I still cannot fathom anyone ruling out the likelyhood that PM's will remain a key bedrock store of value and that they will almost certainly have utility as an exchange vehicle in almost any plausible scenerio.  It may be risky to life and limb to own and use them, but that is not an argument I've heard you, or almost anyone else, make.


i never actually had to use my pm's to feel unsafe or at risk.  the mere fact of having a coupla safe fulls of the stuff made me nervous.  now i don't worry so much.  

having to use them on a daily basis to buy bread and water is totally unrealistic as far as i'm concerned and invites physical harm.  being the only one on your block with gold bullion makes you a huge target.  plus, with the tungsten issue, liquidity will be severely constrained and your value diminished if counterparties have to drill a representative sample of your coins or bars to feel satisfied they are getting full value.  how are you going to pay to import the goods and services not available locally that you need or want?

All of these issues have been dealt with effectively in the past so I don't see them as show-stoppers in the future.

I must say that I think it more probable that the future looks a bit more controlled than some sort of Mad Max world, so much of the (legitimate) concerns about physical security and such are not so significant.  But if we did happen to fall into the abyss I would rather take my chances with PM's than any other vehicle, and that includes Bitcoin.  With either Bitcoin or PM's one will have to ratchet up the amount of technical skill and effort required to protect their position to meet whatever threat level develops.  Difficult maybe, but not impossible.  At least not for everyone.  My guess is that far more people would have the native ability required to deal with PM's than they would with Bitcoin (in fringe scenarios that is.)



actually, i don't see a Mad Max scenario either which is one of the reasons i'm bullish more on Bitcoin than gold.  i see the internet remaining open and relatively free altho we in Bitcoin may have more tunneling to do.  yes, we are going to deflate to a more realistic and frugal way of living and that means all of us, including Wall Street.  prices need to come down or else the world will go up in flames as we're starting to see riots just about everywhere.  we are going to clear the bad debts and reduce the derivatives mountain.   this means the USD will go up, gold and silver down, and we all get back to saving and a more constrained way of living.

and no, the Fed will not be able to save everyone's assets.  Ben is going to be punished severely and will go down in history as one of the worst central bankers that ever lived.

Bitcoin goes up b/c we're only one year into its bull and its too good of an idea; gold and silver will go down b/c they are at the end of a 12 yr bull.

I really wish I understood what you mean and why you think the bolded part.

have you bought gasoline recently?  or food for that matter?  Bernanke f*ck does a QEternity with the Dow and all essential commodities at almost record highs.  he panicked and the smart money knows this.  now gas is at its highest ever here in the US and exploding higher abroad.  why do you think ppl are rioting round the world especially in the Middle East?  no, its not b/c of a stupid video.  those ppl are way smarter than we give them credit for.  it's b/c of the inflationary policies of the Fed has made basic living untenable for the rest of the world.  his emphasis on driving stocks higher has distorted everything, including the price of gold and silver to the point where they system is going to reverse; and hard.  i think we've topped in the stock market for many years to come and are going to go down and test some wicked ass lows.  gold and silver are going to follow or in fact lead.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
October 09, 2012, 05:52:06 PM
...

I continue to strongly believe that it is prudent to diversify, and prudent to prefer vehicles with limited counter-party risk.  I still cannot fathom anyone ruling out the likelyhood that PM's will remain a key bedrock store of value and that they will almost certainly have utility as an exchange vehicle in almost any plausible scenerio.  It may be risky to life and limb to own and use them, but that is not an argument I've heard you, or almost anyone else, make.


i never actually had to use my pm's to feel unsafe or at risk.  the mere fact of having a coupla safe fulls of the stuff made me nervous.  now i don't worry so much. 

having to use them on a daily basis to buy bread and water is totally unrealistic as far as i'm concerned and invites physical harm.  being the only one on your block with gold bullion makes you a huge target.  plus, with the tungsten issue, liquidity will be severely constrained and your value diminished if counterparties have to drill a representative sample of your coins or bars to feel satisfied they are getting full value.  how are you going to pay to import the goods and services not available locally that you need or want?

All of these issues have been dealt with effectively in the past so I don't see them as show-stoppers in the future.

I must say that I think it more probable that the future looks a bit more controlled than some sort of Mad Max world, so much of the (legitimate) concerns about physical security and such are not so significant.  But if we did happen to fall into the abyss I would rather take my chances with PM's than any other vehicle, and that includes Bitcoin.  With either Bitcoin or PM's one will have to ratchet up the amount of technical skill and effort required to protect their position to meet whatever threat level develops.  Difficult maybe, but not impossible.  At least not for everyone.  My guess is that far more people would have the native ability required to deal with PM's than they would with Bitcoin (in fringe scenarios that is.)



actually, i don't see a Mad Max scenario either which is one of the reasons i'm bullish more on Bitcoin than gold.  i see the internet remaining open and relatively free altho we in Bitcoin may have more tunneling to do.  yes, we are going to deflate to a more realistic and frugal way of living and that means all of us, including Wall Street.  prices need to come down or else the world will go up in flames as we're starting to see riots just about everywhere.  we are going to clear the bad debts and reduce the derivatives mountain.   this means the USD will go up, gold and silver down, and we all get back to saving and a more constrained way of living.

and no, the Fed will not be able to save everyone's assets.  Ben is going to be punished severely and will go down in history as one of the worst central bankers that ever lived.

Bitcoin goes up b/c we're only one year into its bull and its too good of an idea; gold and silver will go down b/c they are at the end of a 12 yr bull.

I really wish I understood what you mean and why you think the bolded part.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
October 09, 2012, 05:42:46 PM
...

I continue to strongly believe that it is prudent to diversify, and prudent to prefer vehicles with limited counter-party risk.  I still cannot fathom anyone ruling out the likelyhood that PM's will remain a key bedrock store of value and that they will almost certainly have utility as an exchange vehicle in almost any plausible scenerio.  It may be risky to life and limb to own and use them, but that is not an argument I've heard you, or almost anyone else, make.


i never actually had to use my pm's to feel unsafe or at risk.  the mere fact of having a coupla safe fulls of the stuff made me nervous.  now i don't worry so much. 

having to use them on a daily basis to buy bread and water is totally unrealistic as far as i'm concerned and invites physical harm.  being the only one on your block with gold bullion makes you a huge target.  plus, with the tungsten issue, liquidity will be severely constrained and your value diminished if counterparties have to drill a representative sample of your coins or bars to feel satisfied they are getting full value.  how are you going to pay to import the goods and services not available locally that you need or want?

All of these issues have been dealt with effectively in the past so I don't see them as show-stoppers in the future.

I must say that I think it more probable that the future looks a bit more controlled than some sort of Mad Max world, so much of the (legitimate) concerns about physical security and such are not so significant.  But if we did happen to fall into the abyss I would rather take my chances with PM's than any other vehicle, and that includes Bitcoin.  With either Bitcoin or PM's one will have to ratchet up the amount of technical skill and effort required to protect their position to meet whatever threat level develops.  Difficult maybe, but not impossible.  At least not for everyone.  My guess is that far more people would have the native ability required to deal with PM's than they would with Bitcoin (in fringe scenarios that is.)



actually, i don't see a Mad Max scenario either which is one of the reasons i'm bullish more on Bitcoin than gold.  i see the internet remaining open and relatively free altho we in Bitcoin may have more tunneling to do.  yes, we are going to deflate to a more realistic and frugal way of living and that means all of us, including Wall Street.  prices need to come down or else the world will go up in flames as we're starting to see riots just about everywhere.  we are going to clear the bad debts and reduce the derivatives mountain.   this means the USD will go up, gold and silver down, and we all get back to saving and a more constrained way of living.

and no, the Fed will not be able to save everyone's assets.  Ben is going to be punished severely and will go down in history as one of the worst central bankers that ever lived.

Bitcoin goes up b/c we're only one year into its bull and its too good of an idea; gold and silver will go down b/c they are at the end of a 12 yr bull.
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
October 09, 2012, 05:11:24 PM
...

I continue to strongly believe that it is prudent to diversify, and prudent to prefer vehicles with limited counter-party risk.  I still cannot fathom anyone ruling out the likelyhood that PM's will remain a key bedrock store of value and that they will almost certainly have utility as an exchange vehicle in almost any plausible scenerio.  It may be risky to life and limb to own and use them, but that is not an argument I've heard you, or almost anyone else, make.


i never actually had to use my pm's to feel unsafe or at risk.  the mere fact of having a coupla safe fulls of the stuff made me nervous.  now i don't worry so much. 

having to use them on a daily basis to buy bread and water is totally unrealistic as far as i'm concerned and invites physical harm.  being the only one on your block with gold bullion makes you a huge target.  plus, with the tungsten issue, liquidity will be severely constrained and your value diminished if counterparties have to drill a representative sample of your coins or bars to feel satisfied they are getting full value.  how are you going to pay to import the goods and services not available locally that you need or want?

All of these issues have been dealt with effectively in the past so I don't see them as show-stoppers in the future.

I must say that I think it more probable that the future looks a bit more controlled than some sort of Mad Max world, so much of the (legitimate) concerns about physical security and such are not so significant.  But if we did happen to fall into the abyss I would rather take my chances with PM's than any other vehicle, and that includes Bitcoin.  With either Bitcoin or PM's one will have to ratchet up the amount of technical skill and effort required to protect their position to meet whatever threat level develops.  Difficult maybe, but not impossible.  At least not for everyone.  My guess is that far more people would have the native ability required to deal with PM's than they would with Bitcoin (in fringe scenarios that is.)

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
October 09, 2012, 04:57:11 PM
...

I don't think you, or almost anyone else for that matter, has the anything near the power it would take to shake PM's out of my tree.  (Jim Sinclair is about the only individual who would cause me to break stride and he has stated fairly recently that it is his mission to make such a call if/when the time comes.)  But if you have fun trying than by all means carry on.  Fun for everyone.

this is not fun.  its's serious business.  i am as pessimistic as you on the global outlook at this time.  i think we have a fiscal and monetary crisis at hand and that it will play out much differently than most people expect.

Firstly, in terms of a current crisis, I don't really think so.  The world works more or less the same way it has during the current cycle.  There are a mass of structures holding things together (e.g., derivitives) and the situation is tenuous, but things are much more like pre-crisis than they will be like post-crisis I suspect.  That said, I don't rule out the can being kicked down the road for decades.  Nor do I rule out things imploding tomorrow.  I agree that things will probably play out differently than most people suspect...including both you and I.

I continue to strongly believe that it is prudent to diversify, and prudent to prefer vehicles with limited counter-party risk.  I still cannot fathom anyone ruling out the likelyhood that PM's will remain a key bedrock store of value and that they will almost certainly have utility as an exchange vehicle in almost any plausible scenerio.  It may be risky to life and limb to own and use them, but that is not an argument I've heard you, or almost anyone else, make.



i never actually had to use my pm's to feel unsafe or at risk.  the mere fact of having a coupla safe fulls of the stuff made me nervous.  now i don't worry so much. 

having to use them on a daily basis to buy bread and water is totally unrealistic as far as i'm concerned and invites physical harm.  being the only one on your block with gold bullion makes you a huge target.  plus, with the tungsten issue, liquidity will be severely constrained and your value diminished if counterparties have to drill a representative sample of your coins or bars to feel satisfied they are getting full value.  how are you going to pay to import the goods and services not available locally that you need or want?
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
October 09, 2012, 04:30:50 PM
...

I don't think you, or almost anyone else for that matter, has the anything near the power it would take to shake PM's out of my tree.  (Jim Sinclair is about the only individual who would cause me to break stride and he has stated fairly recently that it is his mission to make such a call if/when the time comes.)  But if you have fun trying than by all means carry on.  Fun for everyone.

this is not fun.  its's serious business.  i am as pessimistic as you on the global outlook at this time.  i think we have a fiscal and monetary crisis at hand and that it will play out much differently than most people expect.

Firstly, in terms of a current crisis, I don't really think so.  The world works more or less the same way it has during the current cycle.  There are a mass of structures holding things together (e.g., derivitives) and the situation is tenuous, but things are much more like pre-crisis than they will be like post-crisis I suspect.  That said, I don't rule out the can being kicked down the road for decades.  Nor do I rule out things imploding tomorrow.  I agree that things will probably play out differently than most people suspect...including both you and I.

I continue to strongly believe that it is prudent to diversify, and prudent to prefer vehicles with limited counter-party risk.  I still cannot fathom anyone ruling out the likelyhood that PM's will remain a key bedrock store of value and that they will almost certainly have utility as an exchange vehicle in almost any plausible scenerio.  It may be risky to life and limb to own and use them, but that is not an argument I've heard you, or almost anyone else, make.

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
October 09, 2012, 04:12:20 PM

i have and i see a top.

You are in good company.  Lotsa people do.  Of course lots of people also saw one in 2003, 2006, 2008, etc, etc.  I remember...I was there.  Remember vaguely that is.  There have been so many tops called that they sort of run together for me and I never paid much attention to any of them...happily.


there will come a time...

Of this I have not doubt.  I hope to recognize it and intend to bail prior if I can.  At this point I see nothing changing in the fundamentals which have launched PM's to multi-fold increases in values...at least values against other alternatives.  On top of that a good deal of my interest in having a PM position is associated with concerns about a monetary crisis in the fiat landscape of my locale, and these concerns are as strong as ever.

I don't think you, or almost anyone else for that matter, has the anything near the power it would take to shake PM's out of my tree.  (Jim Sinclair is about the only individual who would cause me to break stride and he has stated fairly recently that it is his mission to make such a call if/when the time comes.)  But if you have fun trying than by all means carry on.  Fun for everyone.



this is not fun.  its's serious business.  i am as pessimistic as you on the global outlook at this time.  i think we have a fiscal and monetary crisis at hand and that it will play out much differently than most people expect.
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
October 09, 2012, 03:13:46 PM

i have and i see a top.

You are in good company.  Lotsa people do.  Of course lots of people also saw one in 2003, 2006, 2008, etc, etc.  I remember...I was there.  Remember vaguely that is.  There have been so many tops called that they sort of run together for me and I never paid much attention to any of them...happily.


there will come a time...

Of this I have not doubt.  I hope to recognize it and intend to bail prior if I can.  At this point I see nothing changing in the fundamentals which have launched PM's to multi-fold increases in values...at least values against other alternatives.  On top of that a good deal of my interest in having a PM position is associated with concerns about a monetary crisis in the fiat landscape of my locale, and these concerns are as strong as ever.

I don't think you, or almost anyone else for that matter, has the anything near the power it would take to shake PM's out of my tree.  (Jim Sinclair is about the only individual who would cause me to break stride and he has stated fairly recently that it is his mission to make such a call if/when the time comes.)  But if you have fun trying than by all means carry on.  Fun for everyone.

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
October 09, 2012, 02:32:06 PM
...
i just happen to have strong opinions about what is going on and the cycles tell me an entirely different story.  but i could be wrong.  its just that gold and silver have to be able to decouple from stock and USD moves IMO.  they've not shown me they can do that.

I think we have a classic case of 'not seeing the forest for the trees' here.  I suggest you zoom out some.


i have and i see a top.

You are in good company.  Lotsa people do.  Of course lots of people also saw one in 2003, 2006, 2008, etc, etc.  I remember...I was there.  Remember vaguely that is.  There have been so many tops called that they sort of run together for me and I never paid much attention to any of them...happily.



there will come a time...
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
October 09, 2012, 02:05:52 PM
...
i just happen to have strong opinions about what is going on and the cycles tell me an entirely different story.  but i could be wrong.  its just that gold and silver have to be able to decouple from stock and USD moves IMO.  they've not shown me they can do that.

I think we have a classic case of 'not seeing the forest for the trees' here.  I suggest you zoom out some.


i have and i see a top.

You are in good company.  Lotsa people do.  Of course lots of people also saw one in 2003, 2006, 2008, etc, etc.  I remember...I was there.  Remember vaguely that is.  There have been so many tops called that they sort of run together for me and I never paid much attention to any of them...happily.

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
October 09, 2012, 01:08:45 PM
...
i just happen to have strong opinions about what is going on and the cycles tell me an entirely different story.  but i could be wrong.  its just that gold and silver have to be able to decouple from stock and USD moves IMO.  they've not shown me they can do that.

I think we have a classic case of 'not seeing the forest for the trees' here.  I suggest you zoom out some.



i have and i see a top.

I wonder why the correction broke to the upside if we were just at the top?

double top?
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
October 09, 2012, 01:00:39 PM
...
i just happen to have strong opinions about what is going on and the cycles tell me an entirely different story.  but i could be wrong.  its just that gold and silver have to be able to decouple from stock and USD moves IMO.  they've not shown me they can do that.

I think we have a classic case of 'not seeing the forest for the trees' here.  I suggest you zoom out some.



i have and i see a top.

I wonder why the correction broke to the upside if we were just at the top?
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
October 09, 2012, 12:59:36 PM
...
i just happen to have strong opinions about what is going on and the cycles tell me an entirely different story.  but i could be wrong.  its just that gold and silver have to be able to decouple from stock and USD moves IMO.  they've not shown me they can do that.

I think we have a classic case of 'not seeing the forest for the trees' here.  I suggest you zoom out some.



i have and i see a top.
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
October 09, 2012, 12:42:15 PM
...
i just happen to have strong opinions about what is going on and the cycles tell me an entirely different story.  but i could be wrong.  its just that gold and silver have to be able to decouple from stock and USD moves IMO.  they've not shown me they can do that.

I think we have a classic case of 'not seeing the forest for the trees' here.  I suggest you zoom out some.

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
October 09, 2012, 12:25:14 PM
more and more ppl are coming around to my point of view.  if the USD rises, gold will get killed:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-09/guest-post-what-will-benefit-global-recession-us-dollar
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
October 09, 2012, 12:14:49 PM


Just keep trying until you are right I guess?  Roll Eyes


and this doesn't apply equally well to you?

It does apply to me, but not equally.  

I have not made a 200 page thread out of my speculations Tongue

you're full of shit.  is this not a collective thread consisting of dozens of individual opinions that have voluntarily been logged?  is it not that i still could be correct in the long run?  is it not a compelling concept as evidenced by the number of views?  is it not, arguably, THE fundamental debate here on this forum?  is it not THE fundamental debate concerning the world economy and financial markets?

yes, i might hoot and holler when gold goes down but i don't declare victory just b/c it's gone down a couple hundred bucks, like you.

Tongue calm down, I like this thread and I like you.

And yes, I have declared victory.  The correction from the top (1900,50/Gold,Silver) is pretty clearly over.  We are now in a smaller correction from the recent run up from (1600,28/Gold,Silver) but the trend is up.

But no, I dont think it is really THE fundamental debate.  I think that to many people try to lump BTC and PMs into the same boat.  PMs are great stores of wealth and Bitcoin is a great medium for wealth transfer, but they really dont fill the same category.  I dont think they need to be viewed diametrically.

well i certainly haven't declared victory.

i just happen to have strong opinions about what is going on and the cycles tell me an entirely different story.  but i could be wrong.  its just that gold and silver have to be able to decouple from stock and USD moves IMO.  they've not shown me they can do that.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
October 09, 2012, 12:08:08 PM


Just keep trying until you are right I guess?  Roll Eyes


and this doesn't apply equally well to you?

It does apply to me, but not equally.  

I have not made a 200 page thread out of my speculations Tongue

you're full of shit.  is this not a collective thread consisting of dozens of individual opinions that have voluntarily been logged?  is it not that i still could be correct in the long run?  is it not a compelling concept as evidenced by the number of views?  is it not, arguably, THE fundamental debate here on this forum?  is it not THE fundamental debate concerning the world economy and financial markets?

yes, i might hoot and holler when gold goes down but i don't declare victory just b/c it's gone down a couple hundred bucks, like you.

Tongue calm down, I like this thread and I like you.

And yes, I have declared victory.  The correction from the top (1900,50/Gold,Silver) is pretty clearly over.  We are now in a smaller correction from the recent run up from (1600,28/Gold,Silver) but the trend is up.

But no, I dont think it is really THE fundamental debate.  I think that to many people try to lump BTC and PMs into the same boat.  PMs are great stores of wealth and Bitcoin is a great medium for wealth transfer, but they really dont fill the same category.  I dont think they need to be viewed diametrically...

like you Tongue
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
October 09, 2012, 12:01:43 PM


Just keep trying until you are right I guess?  Roll Eyes


and this doesn't apply equally well to you?

It does apply to me, but not equally.  

I have not made a 200 page thread out of my speculations Tongue

you're full of shit.  is this not a collective thread consisting of dozens of individual opinions that have voluntarily been logged?  is it not that i still could be correct in the long run?  is it not a compelling concept as evidenced by the number of views?  is it not, arguably, THE fundamental debate here on this forum?  is it not THE fundamental debate concerning the world economy and financial markets?

yes, i might hoot and holler when gold goes down but i don't declare victory just b/c it's gone down a couple hundred bucks, like you do to the upside.
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