Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1439. (Read 2032272 times)

who was the dummy who did this?  BUY into a suboptimal NFP number of 80K?  this is an example of the absurd counterintuitive reasoning that is pervasive at the end of bull markets.

True, but that endurance can be largely for naught when the powder is becoming useless. As the world rejects the dollar, its value will mainly be acknowledged domestically - internationally, not so much.

Sinclair pointed out that the sharks are turning on each other, and the US is a very prominent, very weakened target.

It puts more pressure on the Fed, not less. If the rest of the world eases, the US will head into the kind of austerity consequences seen in Europe.


As above, the pressure to limit painful consequences increases. The best that can do is tread water within a range, not collapse PM prices. Over the past few trading days, gold and the USD have moved in tandem, and significant rises in the dollar have not caused equivalent magnitude declines in gold or silver. In fact, copper and platinum have continued rising; palladium is the stagnant laggard for now.

Actually, the new paradigm is, the more CBs cut rate, the more PM prices fall.

It's a wonderful world out there, isn't it? 

How many CB's cut rates today and pm's still can't get it up?

Big Ben will fix that shortly

Gold is up 1.45% at the moment
Silver is up 3.13% at the moment
USD is down 0.1% at the moment

Good try though...

Translation:

The value of our dollar seems to be descending nicely today.

Gold seems to be ramping nicely today.

Chart Date Range - December 1, 2011 through June 30, 2012  (cherry picked   )

BTC/Gold - How much gold (ounces) a bitcoin will buy. (Range: 0.0016 ounces to 0.0044 ounces)



BTC/Silver - How much silver (ounces) a bitcoin will buy. (Range: 0.0843 ounces to 0.2532 ounces)



BTC/Crude - How much crude oil (barrels) a bitcoin will buy. (Range: 0.0272 barrels to 0.0856 barrels)



Over the same period:

 - BTC/USD (Mt. Gox, 24 hour high): High: $7.22
 - BTC/USD (Mt. Gox, 24 hour low): Low $2.61
 - BTC/USD (Mt. Gox, 24 hour weighted average): Low $2.75, High: $7.05
 - BTC/EUR (Mt. Gox, closing): Low: €2.0626, High: €5.5000

 - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHJuUE1mUkFxa3A0eHBDQkxZLVVFZmc

Friday's action in pm's certainly should make everyone sit up and listen including me.  I also think we are at a historic turning point in markets.  the question is which direction.  i still think deflation is the primary force in action and will take all markets down and very soon.  

just b/c there is a large short position in pm's does not mean the next move is up.  in fact, i remember quite clearly at the top of the stock market in Oct 07 when the Dow was at it's peak of 14K+, short positions in stocks were at extreme HIGHS.  the bulls kept saying this was a contrary indicator and fuel for the next leg up; instead the market did indeed collapse and the shorts were right including myself.  it was a historic opportunity to make money real fast and that i did.  the situation today reminds me of back then.

i have in place a working theory and cycle count for gold that i've outlined for my subs since i started the service in April that has so far worked out perfectly and i will be reviewing this Sunday night in the newsletter.  i'm actually playing for the "collapse" i've been calling for as silver did indeed poke its head below the Dec lows on Thursday which i still think is an ominous sign and has the potential to send pm's into a death spiral.  

however, if somehow pm's can continue to reverse themselves higher in the next few weeks, i won't be a fool and stand in the way.  this coming week promises to be exciting that's for sure.

Some nearly unbelievable charts from GGR.





The banks that have been exerting such phenomenal short pressure are now almost netted out to a flat position in silver. It's speculators and managed money in overextended short positions. Shorts supply the product to the longs, so where will these specs and MM shorts get their supply from if the price rises? Unlike the bullion banks, they don't control warehouses storing hypothecated gold and silver. The same rules for hedging that allowed the banks to naked short also don't apply.

These shorts will be squeezed, resulting in enormous paper losses at best, and forking over rapidly appreciating physical metal at worst. Guess who will be buying? That's right: exactly those banks that have destroyed the markets with their illegitimate short positions which are no longer a threat to the banks' existence.

Over the next few months, we will witness an historic bloodbath, even if there is an initial dip during July. If you're still short during any kind of bank holiday, your losses will be potentially unlimited and you could effectively be murdered financially. Even if you're long, hypothecation can strip you of your assets until any profit is void. Leveraged longs more so.

Cypherdoc is great at picking corners, but it's a guaranteed loss if the corner is frozen. I would close out at a profit while I could; the risk is too great when the rules are against you. Stick with Bitcoin & phyzzz.

Looks like agreement: A ‘Lehman moment' will ensure gold and silver will soar again

Bummer on being a day late

Full disclosure:  Major-ish purchase of phyzzz today (Au this time.)  Lost $50/oz by being 4 hours to late accd to my dealer's whiteboard.  ($1648-ish @ 1600 spot and 1oz KRs for those who are interested.)  Oh well...I never really try to time these things with any sort of precision...just when things line up and are convenient I'll soak up some more.  Good move?  Bad move?  Time will tell.

"We will deal with next quarter, Monday".

hmmmm...

I must've been 'lucky' to have called that three days in advance.


Hard to make a definitive choice between the two; cost theory seems more rigid, but they could both be applied with similar results. I think it might make more sense to apply cost theory to paper gold (when it was directly tied to actual gold in fixed ratio certificate form) because that has to take into account the underlying asset it lays claim to, even though the actual cost to product a paper claim certificate is marginal.


Yup. I think the confusion is two-fold: missing the fact that gold is a currency and the paper representation of gold is not the same as physical gold.



Paper gold used to be a direct 1:1 claim on physical gold. That convertibility alone is what lent credibility to the paper. This is why the production cost, leaning more toward cost theory, is almost the entire valuation. The paper itself may be worth almost nothing, but what it represents is very valuable - and that representation is the entire valuation.

Once convertibility is severed, as it was in a sense during 1933 and again in finality after 1971, the value of the paper depends entirely on what people think it's worth. After having been psychologically conditioned to recognize the dollar being "as good as gold", it is very difficult to grasp the change that becomes "instead of gold".

A visual example, and the play-by-play:

• 0:00-0:05; going great
• 0:05-0:10; run away from deflation
• 0:10-0:13; going great
• 0:13; separate from gold
• 0:18; realize the danger
• 0:21-0:30; hit crisis and collapse
• 0:35 onward, pursue Keynesian/MMT policies

And when they do, their real assets don't disappear like paper. They'll be acquired and capitalized on by stronger companies. The difference here is that returns won't be as high. Royalty companies (RGLD, SLW, TRX, etc) may be the best option.

I'm looking for a chart of the 1st derivative of the US federal deficit vs time, plotted with Gold and the Dow.

Anyone know where to find this?

this thread used to be one of my favorites, interesting to read. now it's some sort of a pissing contest? well, what the hell, I'll just be checking back in a few weeks, keep going guys