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Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 836. (Read 2032266 times)

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
October 24, 2014, 08:16:17 AM
If altcoins are not being considered for SC's, why do they dedicate a paragraph to Freicoin in the Economic part of the paper?

Some altcoins are more equal than others.

It's kind of embarrassing that certain people keep clinging to the idea of demurrage, in spite of the fact that Freicoin conclusively proved that nobody wants self-destructing money.

What's embarrassing is brg444 continuing to promise that no altcoins will be considered in SC's when there is an entire section dedicated to them in the paper.
legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1013
October 24, 2014, 08:12:53 AM
If altcoins are not being considered for SC's, why do they dedicate a paragraph to Freicoin in the Economic part of the paper?

Some altcoins are more equal than others.

It's kind of embarrassing that certain people keep clinging to the idea of demurrage, in spite of the fact that Freicoin conclusively proved that nobody wants self-destructing money.
hero member
Activity: 622
Merit: 500
October 24, 2014, 08:09:11 AM
That would only work if ALL users decided to move to SCbtc and no user wanted to buy BTC under any circumstances, even with spreads in the thousands of dollars or more.  If the tech were that far superior then SCbtc deserves to win out.  In reality, there will most likely be debate over which system is better and not all users will convert, resulting in normal arbitration.
People would certainly buy BTC if scBTC were worth more, but only at something less than the scBTC value in order to convert it and make a profit. There would be no reason to convert back

Yes there is reason to convert back.  You sell the scBTC at a profit and take the profit and buy more BTC to convert.  Rinse and repeat.

No that doesn't work once all the BTC are converted. The only ones you could possibly find to buy for conversion would be newly mined coins, and miners would have no reason to sell them to you. They can just convert themselves (which is what they would do).

The arbitrage you is exactly what would happen, but it would quickly convert all the BTC until there were none left, then the main chain would simply die (other than for mining purposes).


That is a bold assumption, pun intended.  If I had a satoshi for every time someone said the price of bitcoin could go to 0, then I would be rich... as I said before, if the technology of SCbtc is that great, then it deserves to win.

I never said the price goes to zoro. The price would be approximately the same as scBTC, obviously, since you can convert. There would just be no reason to hold BTC. If scBTC offers some advantage to enough people, you might as well convert it.

You said if all the bitcoin are converted.  If all the bitcoin are converted that means there are no more sellers left and the price is zero because no more trade is possible in bitcoin.  

If the price is non-zero that means there are sellers of bitcoin, which also means arb channels are open.  The only way the channels can close is if it either the price of BTC or SCBTC goes to zero.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
October 24, 2014, 08:08:04 AM
If altcoins are not being considered for SC's, why do they dedicate a paragraph to Freicoin in the Economic part of the paper?

Some altcoins are more equal than others.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
October 24, 2014, 08:05:50 AM
If altcoins are not being considered for SC's, why do they dedicate a paragraph to Freicoin in the Economic part of the paper?

I still haven't heard a good excuse for core dev concentration in one for profit company other than "trust us".

Again,  why wouldn't we expect a SC fork of bitcoin with perfect anonymity to take over? 
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1008
October 24, 2014, 07:13:27 AM
One last quest on this sidechains thing, is it possible to remove the bridge between bitcoin and a sidechain at any given point in time?

p.s. sorry for the OT

Edit: fix grammar
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
October 24, 2014, 06:46:43 AM
SC won't solve Bitcoin's scalability because they will optimize spamming Bitcoin for metadata. We'll be right back to the block size argument again. In fact, they will make it happen much faster.

Oh. I completely agree! My sentence earlier was poorly worded, I meant that scaling is important (whether or not SC happens).

EDIT: I see from the graph in a subsequent post that my intuition was correct. It isn't entirely up to date but shows alts at 4%. It's really quite silly for that to motivate anything at all about Bitcoin development. For sidechains to be a good idea they had better be a good idea independent of alts


Yes, the graph is interesting, but for a month, at least, it has been hovering near 90%, where it still stands (4832M / 5342M).
http://coinmarketcap.com/#USD
Assuming the same underlying data is used by both sources.
Note: if Bitshares, Counterparty and Mastercoin are included in Bitcoin, then it is 91%

Okay, so you have one data point from that source, which more or less agrees with my original rough estimate of 10%. I still doubt the number measured that way or any other reasonable way is increasing. Alts have not exactly been doing well the past several months, in case you haven't noticed. Further in support is that every study I've seen says that alts are highly correlated with Bitcoin but positively leveraged, and since Bitcoin is down so much the alts are likely down more. But I don't have hard data other than the one chart that was posted. Do you?

BTW, the observation that alts are positively correlated with Bitcoin raises serious questions about the argument that alts "take value" from Bitcoin. Substitute goods would have negative correlation.


legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
October 24, 2014, 06:35:16 AM
That's exactly the point: this is the right way to experiment new coins, and to progressively add new features to Bitcoin without the need to risk to buy some stupid scamcoin.

Sort of. I certainly view it as one potentially right way to experiment with expanding the functionality of Bitcoin.

Quote
I think that we will see a lot of hate toward sidechains from all the altcoiners, and you will know why: sidechains take from them the opportunity to make some profit pumping new coins.

I agree with you there will be hate. I disagree with that reaction even though also I don't agree with the hate directed at alts.

I'm not sure about your second sentence though. What is your explanation for why the largest alt has (and a few of the top alts have) nothing to do with features?
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
October 24, 2014, 06:32:30 AM
...
Inca, the number of BTC that are put on the sidechain is irrelevant.  As long as there is a single Satoshi left "unlocked" on the bitcoin chain, that satoshi can be transferred into the sidechain for SCBTC.  So that Satoshi is worth its value in SCBTC.  As long as SCBTC has value, BTC would be a store of that value.
...


...
Value of BTC and sBTC are correlated, no matter the 1:x peg.
...


Are these statements actually true? You are both assuming that bitcoin is perpetually transferrable to the sidechain at some perpetually fixed exchange rate.

But, IIRC, the Blockstream crew said in the AMA that the exchange rate can be "any deterministic function", with the constraint that no more BTC can get transferred back to the bitcoin blockchain than got transferred out to begin with. That basically means anything. The rate can change with time, or any other input...as long as it's deterministic. For example:

Say a microtransactions sidechain is developed with a fixed supply of one-billion Micros, and an exchange rate of 1 BTC = 1 million Micros. That means that 1000BTC *total* will ever be able to move to the sidechain. Say the sidechain is very successful; ie, Micros work really well and start to gain a lot of real-world economic traction and value. So the 1000BTC gets transferred over.

Now say that Micros continue to see more use. Their purchasing power goes up, but this has no effect whatsoever on the purchasing power of bitcoin because the max has already moved in. Now all we have is another alt that *used to* have an easy decentralized way of buying it with bitcoin.

I'm frankly struggling to see how sidechains are anything more than an optional decentralized exchange mechanism between BTC and alts.


Then I'll create clone of microtransactions sidechain ... will have same properties as original, only no fixed supply.
hero member
Activity: 731
Merit: 503
Libertas a calumnia
October 24, 2014, 05:52:04 AM
Ultimately, SC are what will completely destroy all altcoins and will give more and more value to Bitcoin, exactly because to the hard-pegging of the currency: what happens now is that for each new scamcoin that is launched every bitcoin holder must choose if part some of his bitcoin stash to buy some of the new coins because they may become more useful and hence more valuable of bitcoin in the future.

Oh come on. Alts in the aggregate are only 10% of Bitcoin's value, and the biggest alt has no innovative features at all. It clearly exists for some completely different reason other than that addressed by side chains and therefore is unlikely to be affected.

You don't know the future, and the trend could certainly change, so better proactive.

Quote
This obsession with alts is very unhealthy and unhelpful. Focus on the value that sidechains (or anything else) could potentially add to Bitcoin by allowing faster and safer development. There is a lot more than 10% to be gained there.
That's exactly the point: this is the right way to experiment new coins, and to progressively add new features to Bitcoin without the need to risk to buy some stupid scamcoin.

I think that we will see a lot of hate toward sidechains from all the altcoiners, and you will know why: sidechains take from them the opportunity to make some profit pumping new coins.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1005
October 24, 2014, 05:33:37 AM


My understanding, and I might be wrong :

- I'm not sure about the concept of scBTC trading on exchanges for reasons that buying a 4$ share of BTC and transferring to SC will give you 4$ share of scBTC. Value of BTC and sBTC are correlated, no matter the 1:x peg.

- My assumption is the share of scBTC pie you can claim is representative to the share of BTC you own. In that sense, if a SC is so superior that there are clear incentives for people to transfer their BTC to this chain, it does not matter when they do it for their stake in BTC, even while on BTC's blockchain, is simply a stake of scBTC they have not claimed YET.

- If this assumption is true then automatically the value of a Bitcoin will rise will the value of its "to-be-claimed" stake in sBTC and be redeemable for the same USD exchange rate

edit : Maybe this makes no sense but this is how I understand it.


ah, that does make sense actually.  but what happens if, as it becomes clear that a SC is going to win over Bitcoin, miners begin to jack their mining tx fees just b/c they can to create the SPV proof tx required to make the switch to scBTC?

also, there still is the question of Blockstream creating an additional asset on the winning SC ahead of time that stands to profit from a rush of BTC to scBTC.


Here is your arb channel:

BTC -> SCbtc ->USD -> BTC

rinse and repeat


So if BTC=$500 and SCbtc=$1000:

I buy BTC for $500, convert to SCbtc, sell SCbtc for $1000, pocket $500, take the other $500 and buy BTC that can then be converted to SCbtc and be sold for $1000, ect, ect, ect


As you said, the waiting periods and tx fees come into play.

This is not even a possibility.

500$ in BTC = 500$ in SCbtc.



Yes it is.  BTC and SCbtc are not necessarily fungible because they are on separate chains with separate tech and the market may value them differently.  The spread I gave was wide to illustrate the point.  Spreads will likely be much smaller.

Still, as you can see of the above, eventually every BTC is converted to scBTC.

legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1006
100 satoshis -> ISO code
October 24, 2014, 05:08:01 AM
SC won't solve Bitcoin's scalability because they will optimize spamming Bitcoin for metadata. We'll be right back to the block size argument again. In fact, they will make it happen much faster.

Oh. I completely agree! My sentence earlier was poorly worded, I meant that scaling is important (whether or not SC happens).

EDIT: I see from the graph in a subsequent post that my intuition was correct. It isn't entirely up to date but shows alts at 4%. It's really quite silly for that to motivate anything at all about Bitcoin development. For sidechains to be a good idea they had better be a good idea independent of alts


Yes, the graph is interesting, but for a month, at least, it has been hovering near 90%, where it still stands (4832M / 5342M).
http://coinmarketcap.com/#USD
Assuming the same underlying data is used by both sources.
Note: if Bitshares, Counterparty and Mastercoin are included in Bitcoin, then it is 91%
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
October 24, 2014, 05:00:50 AM

Nice to see someone standing up for the cause on that SC AMA there Cyph.  Go get 'em Wink

legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
October 24, 2014, 04:52:11 AM
Ultimately, SC are what will completely destroy all altcoins and will give more and more value to Bitcoin, exactly because to the hard-pegging of the currency: what happens now is that for each new scamcoin that is launched every bitcoin holder must choose if part some of his bitcoin stash to buy some of the new coins because they may become more useful and hence more valuable of bitcoin in the future.

Oh come on. Alts in the aggregate are only 10% of Bitcoin's value, and the biggest alt has no innovative features at all. It clearly exists for some completely different reason other than that addressed by side chains and therefore is unlikely to be affected.

This obsession with alts is very unhealthy and unhelpful. Focus on the value that sidechains (or anything else) could potentially add to Bitcoin by allowing faster and safer development. There is a lot more than 10% to be gained there.

That 10% was 5% for a long time, until recent months. So alts are gaining ground. Bitcoin needs the enhanced features SC promises, but importantly, scope for scalability as well.

I'm not sure what time frame you are using. At one point it was 0%, so certainly on that basis they are gaining, in some sense.

Ignoring the extreme peak in late 2013, for several months over the past year BTC was roughly $8 billion and LTC was $300-400m, which makes LTC almost 5% by itself.

I'd like to see those numbers though.

My intuition is that the opposite has happened, that alts are slowly losing ground, at least over the past year or so. I can't believe anything close to a doubling of share has happened in recent history.

EDIT: I see from the graph in a subsequent post that my intuition was correct. It isn't entirely up to date but shows alts at 4%. It's really quite silly for that to motivate anything at all about Bitcoin development. For sidechains to be a good idea they had better be a good idea independent of alts.


legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1008
October 24, 2014, 04:50:50 AM
Ultimately, SC are what will completely destroy all altcoins and will give more and more value to Bitcoin, exactly because to the hard-pegging of the currency: what happens now is that for each new scamcoin that is launched every bitcoin holder must choose if part some of his bitcoin stash to buy some of the new coins because they may become more useful and hence more valuable of bitcoin in the future.

Oh come on. Alts in the aggregate are only 10% of Bitcoin's value, and the biggest alt has no innovative features at all. It clearly exists for some completely different reason other than that addressed by side chains and therefore is unlikely to be affected.

This obsession with alts is very unhealthy and unhelpful. Focus on the value that sidechains (or anything else) could potentially add to Bitcoin by allowing faster and safer development. There is a lot more than 10% to be gained there.

That 10% was 5% for a long time, until recent months. So alts are gaining ground. Bitcoin needs the enhanced features SC promises, but importantly, scope for scalability as well.

just for add a few more data points:

donator
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1014
Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
October 24, 2014, 04:50:27 AM
SC won't solve Bitcoin's scalability because they will optimize spamming Bitcoin for metadata. We'll be right back to the block size argument again. In fact, they will make it happen much faster.
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1006
100 satoshis -> ISO code
October 24, 2014, 04:34:50 AM
Ultimately, SC are what will completely destroy all altcoins and will give more and more value to Bitcoin, exactly because to the hard-pegging of the currency: what happens now is that for each new scamcoin that is launched every bitcoin holder must choose if part some of his bitcoin stash to buy some of the new coins because they may become more useful and hence more valuable of bitcoin in the future.

Oh come on. Alts in the aggregate are only 10% of Bitcoin's value, and the biggest alt has no innovative features at all. It clearly exists for some completely different reason other than that addressed by side chains and therefore is unlikely to be affected.

This obsession with alts is very unhealthy and unhelpful. Focus on the value that sidechains (or anything else) could potentially add to Bitcoin by allowing faster and safer development. There is a lot more than 10% to be gained there.

That 10% was 5% for a long time, until recent months. So alts are gaining ground. Bitcoin needs the enhanced features SC promises, but importantly, scope for scalability as well.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
October 24, 2014, 04:26:19 AM
Ultimately, SC are what will completely destroy all altcoins and will give more and more value to Bitcoin, exactly because to the hard-pegging of the currency: what happens now is that for each new scamcoin that is launched every bitcoin holder must choose if part some of his bitcoin stash to buy some of the new coins because they may become more useful and hence more valuable of bitcoin in the future.

Oh come on. Alts in the aggregate are only 10% of Bitcoin's value, and the biggest alt has no innovative features at all. It clearly exists for some completely different reason other than that addressed by side chains and therefore is unlikely to be affected.

This obsession with alts is very unhealthy and unhelpful. Focus on the value that sidechains (or anything else) could potentially add to Bitcoin by allowing faster and safer development. There is a lot more than 10% to be gained there.



hero member
Activity: 731
Merit: 503
Libertas a calumnia
October 24, 2014, 04:03:48 AM
if i were setting up a SC, i'd just fork Bitcoin, add an anonymity function, then let it run.  there'd be a good chance i could get a full on rush into my SC.
And since the SC is two-way pegged, that would be great.

In fact, I hope this will be one of the first SC ever made, that would be the right way to add an anonymization layer onto bitcoin. I tried to setup something similar in the past but I could not solve all the details that the paper instead correctly addresses.

Ultimately, SC are what will completely destroy all altcoins and will give more and more value to Bitcoin, exactly because to the hard-pegging of the currency: what happens now is that for each new scamcoin that is launched every bitcoin holder must choose if part some of his bitcoin stash to buy some of the new coins because they may become more useful and hence more valuable of bitcoin in the future.

But with sidechains there is not such dilemma: since a well defined protocol to switch coins to/from every SC is in place I can wait to enter the SC only when, and if, the thing is useful for me, and not a moment before (and with the possibility to come back, too).

With sidechains we can hope that a new one will be highly successful without the fear that we have not bought his coins in time, because we already have them (of course supposing we are invested in bitcoin), and for all of them (all of the sidecoins that will ever be made).

So, people like Satoshi, Cypherdoc and other highly invested in Bitcoin should be very, very grateful for sidechains because that's the best opportunity we have to maintain the relevance of bitcoin (and hence his value) in the future.
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
Gresham's Lawyer
October 24, 2014, 02:20:08 AM
I'm in justusranvier's camp on this one. Not raising blocksize, *at least* roughly allowing for Moore's Law, seems insane, and would just drive some alt to gain significant marketshare.

Bandwidth doesn't increase according to Moore's.
At best, Neilson's
http://www.nngroup.com/articles/law-of-bandwidth/

Your source says "10% less than Moore's law." That's not really much difference. Still a lot and still exponential, for now.


Right, That is just the first of many criticisms I have of the current proposals.  
I don't like extrapolations used for predictive purposes.
They assume too much.
I'd prefer a method of rightsizing max block size through use of the data of the future which may be derived from the block chain through sums of fees or block size.
This can be done much in the same way that difficulty is generated.
The risks of doing it in this better way may be that it could create some perverse incentives for folks that wanted to "game" the metric.
I'd like to see a proposal that doesn't come with what amounts to a guarantee that it will be wrong because it relies on a guess made years ago.
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