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Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 898. (Read 2032266 times)

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
October 03, 2014, 10:34:33 PM
Can anyone speculate as to what has been up with all the dumping?  Where are all these coins coming from?

My first guess would be that is the BTC that Karpeles stole.

I think the missing Gox BTC took us to $2 in 2011-12, this is the start of capitulation and whale re-balancing.

not sure what you're referring to.  you mean the guy Kevin who stole around 2000BTC?

Although the evidence is circumstantial, a plausible case can be made that the great bitcoin theft actually took place in 2011, and all the following events were the result of Mark trying to fix it:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zdnop/peter_rs_theory_on_the_collapse_of_mt_gox/


I've always liked that theory, *except* where is the ~1,000,000 BTC transaction (or handful of transactions adding up to that) in mid June 2011? (note: I've never bothered to look, but never heard anyone mention their existence, either).

Sidenote: It was the rebound from $0.01 to ~$17 after that hack that gave me enough confidence in the bitcoin economy/userbase to make my first purchases and sign up here. And I remember watching those penny trades in real-time. Crazy.

yeah, while totaling those volume bars during few days is difficult, i don't see evidence of 1M BTC traded during that time.

btw, the current pullback was a result of Gox also.  it's a good thing they're out of biz:

legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1007
October 03, 2014, 10:30:19 PM

I've always liked that theory, *except* where is the ~1,000,000 BTC transaction (or handful of transactions adding up to that) in mid June 2011? (note: I've never bothered to look, but never heard anyone mention their existence, either).


Yes, that's a weakness of the theory indeed.  I only looked briefly (I never got into looking at specific transactions or any deeper blockchain analysis).  There's probably enough total output volume to conceal 1,000,000 coins, but it's certain no smoking gun.

There's no smoking gun, but there's enough output volume to conceal ~1,000,000 BTC.  Here's a graph of bitcoin transfers for June 2011 constructed from data I just pulled from blockchain.info.  Note that I'm not sure re time zones, so look at the 18, 19, and 20th when thinking about what happened at the time of the hack.  Also note this is a log scale so that both curves are readable.  



Remember that total output volume is 100% accurate, but blockchain.info's estimated transaction volume depends on an algorithm that attempts to identify change and may thus be unreliable.  
legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1004
October 03, 2014, 10:16:28 PM
Can anyone speculate as to what has been up with all the dumping?  Where are all these coins coming from?

My first guess would be that is the BTC that Karpeles stole.

I think the missing Gox BTC took us to $2 in 2011-12, this is the start of capitulation and whale re-balancing.

not sure what you're referring to.  you mean the guy Kevin who stole around 2000BTC?

Although the evidence is circumstantial, a plausible case can be made that the great bitcoin theft actually took place in 2011, and all the following events were the result of Mark trying to fix it:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zdnop/peter_rs_theory_on_the_collapse_of_mt_gox/


I've always liked that theory, *except* where is the ~1,000,000 BTC transaction (or handful of transactions adding up to that) in mid June 2011? (note: I've never bothered to look, but never heard anyone mention their existence, either).

Sidenote: It was the rebound from $0.01 to ~$17 after that hack that gave me enough confidence in the bitcoin economy/userbase to make my first purchases and sign up here. And I remember watching those penny trades in real-time. Crazy.
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1000
October 03, 2014, 10:05:05 PM
Can anyone speculate as to what has been up with all the dumping?  Where are all these coins coming from?

My first guess would be that is the BTC that Karpeles stole.

I think the missing Gox BTC took us to $2 in 2011-12, this is the start of capitulation and whale re-balancing.

not sure what you're referring to.  you mean the guy Kevin who stole around 2000BTC?

I was thinking the Gox hack that saw a huge crash in 2011 I think it was about 1M coins stolen, I'm of the opinion Gox was running under a fractional reserve system ever since then but that's old news.

But yes I think the big Bitcoin guns know it's not who finishes with the most Bitcoin but who ends up with the most wealth. I hope it's whales selling off into old bids (the new faithful) collecting cash on the exchanges in preparation for a new rally, but I think the rally is months away.

The longer the better in my view it creates space for more numerous hands, and tests the resolve of Bitcoin proponents.
legendary
Activity: 961
Merit: 1000
October 03, 2014, 10:02:51 PM
Can anyone speculate as to what has been up with all the dumping?  Where are all these coins coming from?

My first guess would be that is the BTC that Karpeles stole.

I think the missing Gox BTC took us to $2 in 2011-12, this is the start of capitulation and whale re-balancing.

You may well be right.  I hope so.  I've not followed any analysis which lends strength to you suggestion and certainly have not performed any myself.  I'm not aware of any public proof of control after then famous mid-2011 transfer so they certainly could have launched into a bunch of blatant fraud in that timeframe.

If anything I hope it's whales dumping Bitcoin to arm the fiat cannons, but the thought also crossed my mind that it could be some Russian oligarchs (who bought in during the Cyprus run up) they could be dumping give Russia's new position on Bitcoin and the fact its been a relative hedge given the drop in ruble.

It's a good point - reinforces the fact that this isn't a U.S. centric market ( looking at you NYC) but a global asset that can be a tool for many different use cases (I know the applications for remittance & transfer is also worldwide, but I mean that it also an effective trading asset v fiat devaluation etc).
legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1007
October 03, 2014, 10:02:29 PM
Can anyone speculate as to what has been up with all the dumping?  Where are all these coins coming from?

My first guess would be that is the BTC that Karpeles stole.

I think the missing Gox BTC took us to $2 in 2011-12, this is the start of capitulation and whale re-balancing.

not sure what you're referring to.  you mean the guy Kevin who stole around 2000BTC?

Although the evidence is circumstantial, a plausible case can be made that the great bitcoin theft actually took place in 2011, and all the following events were the result of Mark trying to fix it:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zdnop/peter_rs_theory_on_the_collapse_of_mt_gox/
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
October 03, 2014, 09:56:39 PM
regardless of who it is, this severe volatility is to be expected with a nascent, fixed supply currency that has no real competition (despite what the altscams say) and is permeating every corner of the earth.  it's a reflection of the severe disagreement btwn proponents and opponents who take turns gaining the upper hand in a never ending series of up down cycles.  

it's a promising sign, as Bitcoin truly has the potential to change the world.  

back in Jan 2011, the volatility of Oct 2010, from $0.06 to $0.50 and then back down to $0.14 is what caught my eye and told me, "there's something here".
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1000
October 03, 2014, 09:49:15 PM
Can anyone speculate as to what has been up with all the dumping?  Where are all these coins coming from?

My first guess would be that is the BTC that Karpeles stole.

I think the missing Gox BTC took us to $2 in 2011-12, this is the start of capitulation and whale re-balancing.

You may well be right.  I hope so.  I've not followed any analysis which lends strength to you suggestion and certainly have not performed any myself.  I'm not aware of any public proof of control after then famous mid-2011 transfer so they certainly could have launched into a bunch of blatant fraud in that timeframe.

If anything I hope it's whales dumping Bitcoin to arm the fiat cannons, but the thought also crossed my mind that it could be some Russian oligarchs (who bought in during the Cyprus run up) they could be dumping give Russia's new position on Bitcoin and the fact its been a relative hedge given the drop in ruble.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
October 03, 2014, 09:32:23 PM
Can anyone speculate as to what has been up with all the dumping?  Where are all these coins coming from?

My first guess would be that is the BTC that Karpeles stole.

I think the missing Gox BTC took us to $2 in 2011-12, this is the start of capitulation and whale re-balancing.

not sure what you're referring to.  you mean the guy Kevin who stole around 2000BTC?
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
October 03, 2014, 09:30:53 PM
Can anyone speculate as to what has been up with all the dumping?  Where are all these coins coming from?

My first guess would be that is the BTC that Karpeles stole.

I think the missing Gox BTC took us to $2 in 2011-12, this is the start of capitulation and whale re-balancing.

i sincerely hope that most whales are rebalancing as it would be the most bullish thing yet --> distribution into stronger, more numerous hands.
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
October 03, 2014, 09:30:49 PM
Can anyone speculate as to what has been up with all the dumping?  Where are all these coins coming from?

My first guess would be that is the BTC that Karpeles stole.

I think the missing Gox BTC took us to $2 in 2011-12, this is the start of capitulation and whale re-balancing.

You may well be right.  I hope so.  I've not followed any analysis which lends strength to you suggestion and certainly have not performed any myself.  I'm not aware of any public proof of control after then famous mid-2011 transfer so they certainly could have launched into a bunch of blatant fraud in that timeframe.

legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1000
October 03, 2014, 09:26:45 PM
Can anyone speculate as to what has been up with all the dumping?  Where are all these coins coming from?

My first guess would be that is the BTC that Karpeles stole.

I think the missing Gox BTC took us to $2 in 2011-12, this is the start of capitulation and whale re-balancing.
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 504
Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks
October 03, 2014, 09:26:34 PM

that's a joke.  i've been railing on him about that.

he does seem to have come around recently

you mean since he posted that just a coupla days ago?  already?

edit:  i don't think so:  https://twitter.com/twobitidiot/status/518166299298779136

oh nvm I didn't get what you were saying right
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
October 03, 2014, 09:26:16 PM
Can anyone speculate as to what has been up with all the dumping?  Where are all these coins coming from?
My first guess would be that is the BTC that Karpeles stole.
given that's the biggest source, it would make sense.  altho i'm not sure he holds them.

He probably does not, but that certainly doesn't mean they would not be making it to market.  In fact, it's more likely they would be put into the market if he does NOT control them.

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
October 03, 2014, 09:23:48 PM
Can anyone speculate as to what has been up with all the dumping?  Where are all these coins coming from?

My first guess would be that is the BTC that Karpeles stole.



given that's the biggest source, it would make sense.  altho i'm not sure he holds them.
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
October 03, 2014, 09:19:37 PM
Can anyone speculate as to what has been up with all the dumping?  Where are all these coins coming from?

My first guess would be that is the BTC that Karpeles stole.

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
October 03, 2014, 09:18:54 PM
Gold collapsing as well as Bitcoin collapsing. Gold will go down more, though and Bitcoin should break the trend soon. So buying Bitcoin now.

agreed, me too.
hero member
Activity: 521
Merit: 500
October 03, 2014, 09:16:52 PM
Gold collapsing as well as Bitcoin collapsing. Gold will go down more, though and Bitcoin should break the trend soon. So buying Bitcoin now.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
October 03, 2014, 09:14:23 PM

that's a joke.  i've been railing on him about that.

he does seem to have come around recently

you mean since he posted that just a coupla days ago?  already?

edit:  i don't think so:  https://twitter.com/twobitidiot/status/518166299298779136
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 504
Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks
October 03, 2014, 09:13:46 PM

that's a joke.  i've been railing on him about that.

he does seem to have come around recently
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