Author

Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 983. (Read 2032272 times)

legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1005
September 02, 2014, 03:41:46 AM
Now I get it -it's been staring in my face for weeks:

You use the word deflation in an unconventional third way, not the economic sense of shrinking money supply, not in the populist sense of shrinking prices, but generally as shrinkage.

Shrinking real wages, shrinking house building, shrinking GDP, shrinking dicks.

Makes sense, although it should be properly agreed upon during a discussion.
 

altho it is still probable that my definition fits the traditional definition of shrinking money supply (monetary base+credit). the problem is i can't find any reliable figures on total aggregate debt over time, including shadow banking, and whether it is shrinking or not.  that chart above of net shadow banking liabilities is a big hint as to what is going on, the question being, whether or not it is being adequately offset by increasing gvt debt and monetary base.

anyone?

Fair. Seeing the world overall, we have government debt creation in Japan and China. China is desperate to reduce debt ratios in businesses, but they can't, when they try they feel the pain with failing businesses all over the place. With money supply deflation, we should see falling prices. We have falling prices in gold and some capital commodities. Commodity prices are where we should expect it first, anyway.
legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1007
September 02, 2014, 03:24:10 AM
Glass half empty:




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Glass half full:

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
September 02, 2014, 03:16:20 AM
Gold down moarerer
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 2349
Eadem mutata resurgo
September 01, 2014, 11:43:23 PM
Another thing to note, we just passed the halfway point between the previous block halving (210,000) and the upcoming one (Block 420,000) that was at block 315,000 ...

... the psychology of the market is from now on we are closer to the point of 1800 btc/day than 7200 btc/day inflation rates. If the market is adept at smoothing those lumpy step changes in issuance by pricing in demand/supply imbalances over long periods ...
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
September 01, 2014, 11:09:45 PM
gold down moarer
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
September 01, 2014, 10:49:40 PM
here's the 10 yr weekly Heavy Construction Index.  you see that we've failed to clear the previous peak in 2008.  that's trouble:

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
September 01, 2014, 10:41:37 PM
USD breaking up and thru another resistance level.  oh my traderCJ, oh my:

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
September 01, 2014, 10:36:26 PM
here's the Building Construction Index.  topped in March:



DJ Heavy Construction Index.  topped in April:

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
September 01, 2014, 09:44:08 PM
gold down moar
STT
legendary
Activity: 4102
Merit: 1454
September 01, 2014, 09:21:49 PM
Quote
this is deflationary as it sucks capital and wealth away from productive portions of the economy into these black holes.

Growth can occur during inflation of the monetary base and growth can even occur during deflation.
  Politics doesnt want you to realise that but its another confusion put there, similar to triumphantly saying 'we reduced the deficit'  well thats still crap because a deficit means you are increasing the debt still.
  A reduced deficit is alot of trouble because one day we have to run massive surplus and for many years now it has not happened, we just increase debt and hope to heck inflation will wipe out the value

The reason for poor growth is a reduced currency value realised in exchange for good business but government always has enough money to spend too much.  Most business is forced to cut back varied by its sucess

Quote
Monday night futures:

gold down  usd up

If they each diverge 2% then the value of gold has not changed
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
September 01, 2014, 09:13:07 PM

for the same reasons i argue that Bitcoin will win the altcoin space as ppl gravitate to one currency for efficiency reasons and the network effect, i think that Bitcoin wins over gold.  as long as Bitcoin can remain secure, there is every reason to like it better than gold.  definitive fixed supply, portable, divisible, transportable, room for growth, intangible, not encumbered by a paper market (yet), unreachable by gvt, etc.  so no, i don't think they will go up together.  for the last 3 yrs, we've already seen them go in opposite directions.  gold has failed in its historical role as an enforcer to UST's.

Gold will have to compete against crypto, that's an excellent point. I wonder, however, if the baby boomers will feel comfortable investing in bitcoin as a safe haven. There's a lot of old people with a lot of money that would not touch bitcoin even if they think it might be a good bet, just out of fear of the unknown / technological illiteracy, don't you think?

Very true. But just like I say Bitcoin is golds Black Swan, it could be The Boomers Black Swan.

But if the youngins want that to happen, they better get crackin.

I think in the long run Bitcoin has the upper hand, but what if we have to deal with a scenario of widespread panic next week? Isn't it possible to see gold climbing to new highs, even if it is for the last time?

well, here we are, Monday night futures:

gold down



dollar up

legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1000
September 01, 2014, 09:04:52 PM

for the same reasons i argue that Bitcoin will win the altcoin space as ppl gravitate to one currency for efficiency reasons and the network effect, i think that Bitcoin wins over gold.  as long as Bitcoin can remain secure, there is every reason to like it better than gold.  definitive fixed supply, portable, divisible, transportable, room for growth, intangible, not encumbered by a paper market (yet), unreachable by gvt, etc.  so no, i don't think they will go up together.  for the last 3 yrs, we've already seen them go in opposite directions.  gold has failed in its historical role as an enforcer to UST's.

Gold will have to compete against crypto, that's an excellent point. I wonder, however, if the baby boomers will feel comfortable investing in bitcoin as a safe haven. There's a lot of old people with a lot of money that would not touch bitcoin even if they think it might be a good bet, just out of fear of the unknown / technological illiteracy, don't you think?

Very true. But just like I say Bitcoin is golds Black Swan, it could be The Boomers Black Swan.

But if the youngins want that to happen, they better get crackin.

I think in the long run Bitcoin has the upper hand, but what if we have to deal with a scenario of widespread panic next week? Isn't it possible to see gold climbing to new highs, even if it is for the last time?
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
September 01, 2014, 08:42:49 PM

for the same reasons i argue that Bitcoin will win the altcoin space as ppl gravitate to one currency for efficiency reasons and the network effect, i think that Bitcoin wins over gold.  as long as Bitcoin can remain secure, there is every reason to like it better than gold.  definitive fixed supply, portable, divisible, transportable, room for growth, intangible, not encumbered by a paper market (yet), unreachable by gvt, etc.  so no, i don't think they will go up together.  for the last 3 yrs, we've already seen them go in opposite directions.  gold has failed in its historical role as an enforcer to UST's.

Gold will have to compete against crypto, that's an excellent point. I wonder, however, if the baby boomers will feel comfortable investing in bitcoin as a safe haven. There's a lot of old people with a lot of money that would not touch bitcoin even if they think it might be a good bet, just out of fear of the unknown / technological illiteracy, don't you think?

Very true. But just like I say Bitcoin is golds Black Swan, it could be The Boomers Black Swan.

But if the youngins want that to happen, they better get crackin.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1000
September 01, 2014, 08:37:13 PM

for the same reasons i argue that Bitcoin will win the altcoin space as ppl gravitate to one currency for efficiency reasons and the network effect, i think that Bitcoin wins over gold.  as long as Bitcoin can remain secure, there is every reason to like it better than gold.  definitive fixed supply, portable, divisible, transportable, room for growth, intangible, not encumbered by a paper market (yet), unreachable by gvt, etc.  so no, i don't think they will go up together.  for the last 3 yrs, we've already seen them go in opposite directions.  gold has failed in its historical role as an enforcer to UST's.

Gold will have to compete against crypto, that's an excellent point. I wonder, however, if the baby boomers will feel comfortable investing in bitcoin as a safe haven. There's a lot of old people with a lot of money that would not touch bitcoin even if they think it might be a good bet, just out of fear of the unknown / technological illiteracy, don't you think?
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
September 01, 2014, 05:17:30 PM
Once you correct for pricing of risk, it looks like investors have been anticipating a negative real rate well into the future ever since the end of the recession. Expectations lifted in the first half of 2013, but have been falling sharply this year.

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2014/08/bond-market-conundrum-redux

confusion reigns:

legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 2349
Eadem mutata resurgo
September 01, 2014, 04:33:21 PM

this is all part of "Financial Repression" which they don't even bat an eye anymore talking about.  or "the financialization of the economy" is another one.  this is deflationary as it sucks capital and wealth away from productive portions of the economy into these black holes.


Don't forget talent. A number of the brightest minds end up in finance because it's so fantastically lucrative, with far far less risk than, say, a tech startup. A lot of those people are smart in ways that could be extremely valuable to society overall; eg, simultaneously technically/mathematically talented, *plus* rare creativity. Quite a shame that their most rational self-interested action is to devote decades to exploiting the details of centrally manipulated markets.


Yes, they become very adept at finding the most efficient forms of corruption possible, at high frequency trading speeds no less ... sad waste of talent, time and resources, many call themselves "quantitative analysts" or 'quants'
legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1004
September 01, 2014, 03:38:35 PM

this is all part of "Financial Repression" which they don't even bat an eye anymore talking about.  or "the financialization of the economy" is another one.  this is deflationary as it sucks capital and wealth away from productive portions of the economy into these black holes.


Don't forget talent. A number of the brightest minds end up in finance because it's so fantastically lucrative, with far far less risk than, say, a tech startup. A lot of those people are smart in ways that could be extremely valuable to society overall; eg, simultaneously technically/mathematically talented, *plus* rare creativity. Quite a shame that their most rational self-interested action is to devote decades to exploiting the details of centrally manipulated markets.
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
Gresham's Lawyer
September 01, 2014, 02:35:58 PM
In the mean time, new wave of money is being handled to the worsts.

'Too big to fail' hands big banks $4.5 billion subsidy

The big four banks receive an annual subsidy of up to $4.5 billion from being perceived as "too big to fail" which should be paid for by a levy or increased capital charge, the Customer Owned Banking Association said in its second submission to the financial system inquiry.

The issue of how to reduce moral hazard when failing banks receive government support has been a hot-button issue for David Murray's inquiry. Ending the perception of "too big to fail" is also a key agenda item for the Brisbane G20 leaders summit in November.

COBA's submission attached analysis from modelling firm Macroeconomics quantifying the annual average value of the subsidy to the big four from being seen as too big to fail as between $2.9 billion and $4.5 billion, as funding costs were reduced by between 22 and 34 basis points. A separate submission by the regional banks quantified the subsidy at about $2 billion a year, using IMF assumptions.



this is all part of "Financial Repression" which they don't even bat an eye anymore talking about.  or "the financialization of the economy" is another one.  this is deflationary as it sucks capital and wealth away from productive portions of the economy into these black holes.

BIS also excludes the "systemically important" (their term for TBTF) banks from some provisions and gives special accommodation.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 106
September 01, 2014, 02:11:21 PM
actually, this is lame as hell, lol!



note there is nothing in there about innovation.

Certainly not pro innovation.

But I read (5) as anti innovation.

I've heard it many times off lazy people, "why reinvent the wheel", to which I always reply "because it's not round enough for me".

EDIT: gas news is BIG news.
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