Hey misc, interested in action on the BTC/gold ratio at the end of the year? We could make a straight bet on it (50BTC?) or we could do a future swap deal at the current rate (175BTC of yours for 1oz of mine?). Easiest to just settle in BTC, but I do have the ounce in case you disagree with kitco price by that time or whatever.
No, but thanks for the offer. I'm not interested in gambling with Bitcoin against gold or vice versa, especially not short term - there's way too much potential volatility coming. I prefer sure things that are easy to predict, like Bitcoin and gold against fiat over the next several years.
If I were to use either asset now, it'd be to nibble at insanely cheap productive resources - when everyone's a gambler, don't gamble.
Hey misc, interested in action on the BTC/gold ratio at the end of the year? We could make a straight bet on it (50BTC?) or we could do a future swap deal at the current rate (175BTC of yours for 1oz of mine?). Easiest to just settle in BTC, but I do have the ounce in case you disagree with kitco price by that time or whatever.
50 btc/oz would be my guess for a endgame price for gold.Whatever that would be in fiat would be irrelevant at this point. But that gonna take a long time.
you might be underestimating BTC itself (value increase not caused by fiat inflation but bitcoin economy/investment growth)... or are you talking 2012-based BTC when you say 50 btc/oz?
@miscreanity: thanks for above charts and elaboration.
Sure thing.
I think we'll see an inverted XAU:BTC ratio. Maybe even 5:1 or better. Going with the extreme of 5.5 billion troy ounces of gold to the maximum Bitcoin supply of 21mm, the ration would be about 261:1. Silver has an estimated supply in the tens of billions of ounces, and that's historically held fairly accurate in valuation relative to gold, so I'm probably being conservative with Bitcoin.
You may be right that in the longterm BTC is more undervalued than gold, in respect to fiat money. But in face to face comparison there isn't that much room for BTC to gain value over gold. The situation is similar to 2008 where people popped up saying the gold bull market is over.
Agreed about 2008. Gold remains buried in background noise for most people, like Bitcoin has been after the initial over-enthusiastic interest fell. What if both trends rise?
